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A Hodgepodge of…
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Created: Mon Jun 25 10:50:36 2007
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A Hodgepodge of Declining Growth Returns in Home Prices According to the
S&P/Case-Shiller® Home Price Indices
New York, June 26, 2007 Data through April 2007 released today by Standard & Poor's for its
S&P/Case-Shiller® Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, shows the annual
growth rate in prices of existing single family homes across the United States declined again, the 17th
consecutive slowdown since December 2005.
S&P/Case-Shiller® Home Price Indices
24% 24%
20% 20%
16% 16%
10 -City Composite
Percent change, year ago
12% 12%
20-City
8% Composite 8%
4% 4%
0% 0%
-4% -4%
-8% -8%
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Source: Standard & Poor's
The chart above, depicting the annual returns of the 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composite
shows continued negative annual returns, which began in January 2007. The 10-City composite's annual
decline of 2.7% is at levels not seen since late 1991.
"A review of the decline in home price returns on a regional level shows no region is immune to the
weakening price returns," says Robert J. Shiller, Chief Economist at MacroMarkets LLC. "While
regional economic fundamentals may be keeping cities like Portland 1 , Seattle and Charlotte in positive
territory, they have not curbed their diminishing returns. For example Seattle reported annual returns of
9.6% this month compared to the 17.8% reported for April last year. In addition, Miami has crossed into
negative territory this month, with a 1.0% annual decline. "
In other parts of the country, the state of the single-family residential market is weak with Detroit
reporting a 9.3% annual decline, followed by San Diego with a 6.7% decline and Washington D.C. at
1
Oregon.
-5.7%. Four cities Atlanta, Boston, Dallas and Denver did see both monthly price increases in April
and some modest strengthening in their annual rates of return. A few more months of data will reveal if is
a seasonal issue or the beginnings of a recovery in these markets.
®
The table below summarizes the results for April 2007. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are
revised for the 24 prior months, based on the receipt of additional source data. Eighteen years of history
for these data series is available, and can be accessed in full by going to
www.homeprice.standardandpoors.com.
April 2007 April/March March/February
Metropolitan Area Level Change (%) Change (%) 1-Year Change (%)
Atlanta 134.28 0.8% -0.1% 2.1%
Boston 169.60 0.6% 0.3% -4.5%
Charlotte 131.98 1.2% 0.9% 7.0%
Chicago 165.87 -0.7% -0.3% 0.2%
Cleveland 117.50 -0.2% -0.1% -2.8%
Dallas 124.91 1.3% 0.3% 2.0%
Denver 134.86 0.5% -0.5% -1.8%
Detroit 112.68 -2.5% -0.9% -9.3%
Las Vegas 226.65 -0.8% -0.5% -3.0%
Los Angeles 263.36 -0.5% -0.8% -2.6%
Miami 273.53 -1.2% -0.9% -1.0%
Minneapolis 164.73 -0.5% -0.8% -2.9%
New York 211.65 -0.2% -0.1% -1.5%
Phoenix 215.04 -0.8% -0.6% -4.5%
Portland 183.55 1.0% 1.0% 6.4%
San Diego 232.64 -0.3% -1.0% -6.7%
San Francisco 211.47 0.2% 0.1% -2.8%
Seattle 188.89 1.3% 0.9% 9.6%
Tampa 224.13 -1.1% -0.8% -5.0%
Washington 235.92 -0.5% -0.4% -5.7%
Composite-10 218.93 -0.3% -0.4% -2.7%
Composite-20 200.45 -0.2% -0.3% -2.1%
Source: Standard & Poor's
Data through April 2007
The S&P/Case-Shiller® Home Price Indices are published on the last Tuesday of each month at 9:00 am
ET. They are constructed to accurately track the price path of typical single-family homes located in each
metropolitan area provided. Each index combines matched price pairs for thousands of individual houses
from the available universe of arms-length sales data. The S&P/Case-Shiller® National U.S. Home Price
Index tracks the value of single-family housing within the United States. The index is a composite of
single-family home price indices for the nine U.S. Census divisions and is calculated quarterly. The
S&P/Case-Shiller® Composite of 10 Home Price Index is a value-weighted average of the 10 original
metro area indices. The S&P/Case-Shiller® Composite of 20 Home Price Index is a value-weighted
average of the 20 metro area indices. The indices have a base value of 100 in January 2000; thus, for
example, a current index value of 150 translates to a 50% appreciation rate since January 2000 for a
typical home located within the subject market.
These indices are generated and published under agreements between Standard & Poor's, Fiserv and
MacroMarkets LLC. MacroMarkets LLC possesses exclusive license and sublicensing rights to the
S&P/Case-Shiller® Home Price Indices for the purposes of developing, structuring and trading financial
products.
About Standard & Poor's
Standard & Poor's, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies (NYSE: MHP), is the world's foremost
provider of financial market intelligence, including independent credit ratings, indices, risk evaluation,
investment research and data. With approximately 8,500 employees, including wholly owned affiliates,
located in 21 countries, Standard & Poor's is an essential part of the world's financial infrastructure and has
played a leading role for more than 140 years in providing investors with the independent benchmarks they
need to feel more confident about their investment and financial decisions. For more information, visit
http://www.standardandpoors.com.
For more information contact:
David Blitzer David Guarino
Chairman of the Index Committee Communications
Standard & Poor's Standard & Poor's
212 438 3907 1 212 438 1471
david_blitzer@standardandpoors.com dave_guarino@standardandpoors.com