Tags: barack obama, campaigns, contenders, democratic national convention, democratic voters, democrats, diageo, fd, job, joe biden, mccain, poll, presidential candidate, running mate, top choice,
AS DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL CONVENTION KICKS OFF, DEMOCRATIC VOTERS
SATISFIED WITH OBAMA'S PICK OF BIDEN AS RUNNING MATE, THINK IT WILL HELP
OBAMA'S CHANCES OF WINNING
OBAMA DOING A BETTER JOB APPEARING PRESIDENTIAL, BUT MORE VOTERS THINK
MCCAIN IS MORE PREPARED TO LEAD
Before V.P. Announcement, Democratic Voters Say Biden is Who They Would "Most Like To See" as
Obama's Running Mate but in Head-to-Head Race, Biden Pick Has Had No Immediate Impact Obama
Still Slightly Edges Out McCain
As the Campaigns End the Summer Trying to Define Themselves and One Another, More Voters See
Obama as "In Touch" with the Average American
New York, August 26, 2008 In a poll fielded immediately prior to the Democratic National Convention,
Barack Obama's pick of Joe Biden as his running mate is being met with approval by voters, particularly
with Democratic voters.
After Saturday's announcement, 55% of Democratic voters said they were satisfied with Obama's selection
of Joe Biden, while 28% of Democrats said they would have preferred someone else. Among all voters, 40%
said they were satisfied, while 24% said they would have preferred someone else.
By a margin of more than 3:1, Democratic voters believe the Biden pick will help Obama's chances of
winning (47%), while 15% think it will hurt his chances, and 32% think it will not make much of a
difference either way.
The Diageo/ Hotline Poll of 1,022 voters was conducted by FD from August 18 24, with 615 interviews
completed August 18-20 before Obama's announcement of Joe Biden as his running mate and 403
interviews completed August 24-25 after the announcement.
In the days leading up to Obama's announcement of Joe Biden as his running mate, The Diageo/ Hotline Poll
asked voters to identify who, among the four most-mentioned V.P. contenders, they would "most like to see
as the Democratic Vice Presidential candidate."
Biden was the top choice of 26% of all voters, leading Indiana Senator Evan Bayh (7%), Kansas Governor
Kathleen Sebelius (5%), and Virginia Governor Tim Kaine (4%). Among Democratic voters, Biden was the
top choice by an even wider margin, with 32% of Democrats indicating he was their top choice, again
leading Bayh (6%), Kaine (4%), and Sebelius (3%).
Prior to the announcement, less than half of voters (47%) were familiar with Joe Biden, with 28% holding a
favorable impression, 19% holding an unfavorable impression and 47% unable to rate him. After the
announcement, 59% of voters were familiar with him, with 38% holding a favorable impression, 21%
holding an unfavorable impression and 41% unable to rate him.
Obama More "In Touch" & Presenting a Presidential Image
Overall, voters appear to have taken in stride talk about McCain's multiple homes and charges of Obama as
being an "elitist." Both candidates are largely seen as "in touch" with the "average American."
However, Obama is seen as more "in touch" than McCain is. Specifically, 70% of voters say Obama is a
"great deal" or "somewhat" in touch with the "average American", while 61% of voters say McCain is a
"great deal" or "somewhat" in touch with the "average American."
This summer, much has been made by both campaigns and by the media about whether voters see Barack
Obama as "Presidential" and about his preparedness to serve as President. To that end, voters believe
Obama is doing a better job than McCain of "presenting himself as a potential president of the United
States."
Two-thirds (66%) of voters believe Barack Obama is doing an "excellent" or a "good" job of presenting
himself as a potential president. In contrast, voters are less enchanted with John McCain's efforts, with only
50% of voters saying he is doing an excellent/good job of presenting himself as a potential president.
However, these high ratings for Obama are not easily translating into positive perceptions of his being able
to lead the country voters still believe McCain is more prepared to lead.
Specifically, 58% of voters say Obama is prepared to lead the country, with 39% saying he is unprepared.
Meanwhile, 74% of voters say McCain is prepared to lead the country as president.
"Even as voters think that Barack Obama has presented himself well as a potential president, they are still
not convinced he is prepared to be president," commented Amy Walter, Editor-in-Chief of National
Journal's Hotline. "The challenge for Obama, then, is to use these next months to specifically address these
concerns."
Obama Holds a Slight Edge in a Head-to-Head Match-up; But Voters See a Democratic Win as More
Likely
The Diageo/ Hotline Poll finds that Barack Obama holds a slight edge over John McCain, 44%-40%, with
12% undecided. So far, the addition of Biden to the ticket has had no overall impact on the head-to-head
matchup, with Obama edging McCain by a similar margin both before (Obama 45%-McCain 41%) and after
(Obama 46%-McCain 41%) the Biden announcement. And, heading into the fall, the race in the all-
important Swing States appears very close, with McCain barely edging out Obama 43%-41%, with 11%
undecided. 1
Regardless of the closeness of the race, voters predict a Democratic victory in the fall. Specifically, 52% of
voters say the Democratic has a better chance of winning and 32% say the Republican candidate has a better
chance. This elevated optimism in a Democratic victory is likely driven by a "confidence gap" Democratic
voters have much more confidence their candidate will win than Republicans have in their own candidate.
1
Includes: Colorado, Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Virginia.
August 2008 ~ Diageo/Hotline Poll 2
Among self-identified Republicans, only 59% think the Republican has a better chance, while 78% of self-
identified Democrats think the Democrat has a better chance. Among Independents, 47% think the Democrat
has better chance of winning and 31% think the Republican has a better chance.
The Issues
Economic issues remain paramount, with 50% of voters citing "the economy" as the most important issue
when deciding who to vote for.
Moreover, when asked who would do a better job handling issues such as the economy, healthcare and
energy policies (a major focus of both candidates this summer), voters think Obama would do a better job.
In contrast, voters think McCain would do a better job managing the War in Iraq.
Table 1: Most Important Issue Impacting Vote & Candidate Performance
n=1,022 The Economy War in Iraq Energy Policies Healthcare
Most Important Issue
50% 18% 14% 12%
to How You Will Vote
n=504 The Economy War in Iraq Energy Policies Healthcare
Who Would Do A Obama McCain Obama Obama
August-08 August-08 August-08 August-08
Better Job? Net Net Net Net
Barack Obama 48% 40% 49% 47%
+8% +9% +12% +11%
John McCain 40% 49% 37% 36%
To obtain complete poll result, please see www.diageohotlinepoll.com
To schedule an interview with Ed Reilly, contact Smriti Sateesh at (212) 850-5600 or
Smriti.Sateesh@fd.com.
Methodology: The Diageo/Hotline Poll was conducted by telephone from August 18 to August 24, 2008, among a random,
representative sample of 1,022 registered voters, age 18 and older (margin of error +/- 3.0%), with 615 interviews completed
August 18-20 before Obama's announcement of Joe Biden as his running mate (margin of error +/- 3.9%) and 403 interviews
completed August 24-25 after the announcement (margin of error +/- 4.9%).
About Diageo: Diageo (Dee-AH-Gee-O) is the world's leading premium drinks business with an outstanding collection of
beverage alcohol brands across spirits, wines, and beer categories. These brands include Johnnie Walker, Guinness, Smirnoff, J&B,
Baileys, Cuervo, Tanqueray, Captain Morgan, Crown Royal, Beaulieu Vineyard and Sterling Vineyards wines. Diageo is a global
company, trading in more than 200 countries around the world. The company is listed on both the New York Stock Exchange
(DEO) and the London Stock Exchange (DGE). Celebrating life, every day, everywhere, responsibly. For more information about
Diageo, its people, brands, and performance, visit us at www.diageo.com.
August 2008 ~ Diageo/Hotline Poll 3
About The Hotline & National Journal Group: The Hotline is National Journal's daily briefing on politics. National Journal
Group Inc. is a leading publisher of magazines, newsletters, books and directories for people who have a professional interest in
politics, policy and government. Based in Washington, D.C., National Journal Group Inc. is committed to providing publications
and services that are non-partisan, reliable and of the highest quality. www.nationaljournal.com.
About FD: One of the most highly regarded consultancies in the communications industry, FD employs more than 660 staff and
advises more than 900 clients worldwide through its hub offices in London and New York, as well as its network of wholly-owned
offices in Bahrain, Beijing, Bogota, Boston, Cape Town, Chicago, Dubai, Dublin, Frankfurt, Hong Kong, Johannesburg, Los
Angeles, Manchester, Moscow, Panama City, Paris, San Francisco, Shanghai, Sydney and Washington, DC. With a 20 year history
of advising clients in both the private and public sectors, FD's services include financial public relations, capital markets
communications, public affairs, crisis and issues management and corporate, business-to-business and business-to-consumer
communications. FD is also a market leader in M&A advisory work. FD is structured around specialist sector teams operating on
an international basis, covering consumer industries, financial services, basic industries, business services, life sciences &
healthcare, media, real estate, technology and telecommunications. FD is a division of FTI Consulting Inc. (NYSE: FCN), the
global business advisory firm. For more information, please visit www.fd.com.
About FTI Consulting: FTI Consulting, Inc. is a global business advisory firm dedicated to helping organizations protect and
enhance enterprise value in an increasingly complex legal, regulatory and economic environment. With more than 2,400
professionals located in most major business centers in the world, we work closely with clients every day to anticipate, illuminate,
and overcome complex business challenges in areas such as investigations, litigation, mergers and acquisitions, regulatory issues,
reputation management and restructuring. www.fticonsulting.com.
August 2008 ~ Diageo/Hotline Poll 4