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August 13, 2008 Desire for Change Opens Door For Bold Policies …
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August 13, 2008
Desire for Change Opens Door For Bold Policies
Voters see parallels to 1930's, want FDR-style revival of the middle class
To: Interested Parties
From: Stanley Greenberg and Andrew Baumann
Dissatisfaction with the direction of the country is at historic levels, leaving the public desperate
for a fundamental change of direction. Voters believe that America could be on the verge of a
new chapter in our nation's history. When asked to compare the current times, and the types of
solutions needed to deal with their problems, to three other difficult eras the 1930s of
Roosevelt, the late 1970s and early 1980s when Reagan was elected, and the early 1990s of
Bill Clinton) voters' preferences are striking. By significant margins voters believe Roosevelt's
times and solutions are more analogous to ours than Reagan's but that Reagan's are closer to
ours than Clinton's. These feelings center largely around a desire to restore an American
middle class that has declined steadily in recent decades.
As a result, voters are open to bold policy prescriptions to restore the middle class, particularly a
commitment to invest in quality middle class jobs. They rate a set of bold policy alternatives
nearly as highly as the actual proposals Barack Obama has advanced during the current
campaign, and both sets of proposals prove equally effective in the vote against McCain. There
is strong support for a New Deal-style investment in infrastructure, energy and technology
designed to create millions of quality middle class jobs and reinvigorate the economy.
Moreover, the bold policies nearly universally rate higher than proposals offered by John
McCain. Voters do believe that deficits are part of the problem, and they want spending
restraint and reform of government, but progressives should be leading the charge for bold
reform in any case, as voters are open to a range of progressive ideas for change.1
Country Desperate For Major Change
The depth of unhappiness with the country's direction has reached nearly unprecedented levels.
A stunning 82 percent believe the country is headed on the wrong track, but more striking is that
69 percent think it is on the wrong track and faces major, not modest problems.
Voters see this change on an historic scale. Nearly six-in-ten say that the next few years will
represent a new period in our nation's history, while just a third believe the coming years will be
a continuation of our recent past. This belief that the country is undergoing fundamental change
combines with the depth of pessimism voters currently feel about the direction of the nation to
create an opening for candidates who can offer major changes and a bold new direction for the
1
This memo is based on a national survey of 806 likely voters conducted June 17-26, 2008.
www.greenbergresearch.com Washington, DC California
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Desire for Change Opens Door For Bold Policies Page 2
country. Just 35 percent of voters say we can solve America's problems with minor changes,
while nearly two-thirds believe it will take "major changes" to bring about solutions.
Voters say major changes needed to solve problems...
First Statement: We need to make Second Statement: We need changes,
major changes to solve America's but not major ones, to solve America's
problems problems
First statement strongly First statement somewhat Second statement strongly Second statement somew
+28
63
57
35
27
First Statement - Major Changes Second Statement - Minor Changes
But while voters are clear in their desire for major change, they are not at all sure the two major
party candidates will be able to achieve that goal. Less than half (just 44 percent) say that the
two candidates are offering solutions that will begin to solve America's problems, while a similar
number, 42 percent, say that the two candidates' solutions will fall short of solving our problems.
Voters' skepticism that bold change will happen may be rooted in judgments about the actual
proposals, but also in skepticism that candidates will keep their promises or that the political
process will allow changes to happen.
Democrats are far more satisfied with the solutions being offered by the candidates (probably
Obama in this case), with 52 percent agreeing that the candidates are offering real solutions.
Meanwhile, just 39 percent of both independents and Republicans agree to that statement. It
appears that Democrats are more optimistic than Republicans about their candidate's proposals
and prospect for change, while independents are skeptical about both.
Historical Comparisons Reveal Depth of Concern About Declining Middle Class
Voters see the current times as similar to the 1930s, with an economy laid flat with rising
inequality and stagnant wages, and they demand solutions like those Franklin Roosevelt
implemented to bring us out of the Great Depression. When asked to compare the current
times, and the types of solutions needed to deal with their problems, to three other difficult eras
the 1930s of Roosevelt, the late 1970s and early 1980s when Reagan was elected, and the
early 1990s of Bill Clinton (see text box below for full wording of historical comparisons)
© 2008 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, All Rights Reserved. August, 2008
Desire for Change Opens Door For Bold Policies Page 3
voters' preferences are clear and striking. By 10 points 52 to 42 percent voters believe
Roosevelt's times are more analogous to ours than Reagan's. The comparison with Clinton's
time, however, trails the Reagan analogy by a margin of 43 to 50. This difference is even more
pronounced among independents, who choose the FDR comparison over the Reagan
comparison by 15 points, but choose the Reagan comparison over the Clinton comparison by
10 points.
Voters see times as more analogous to 1930s than 1970s or 1990s
Now I'm going to read you a pair of statements about the current times. Please tell me whether the FIRST statement or
the SECOND statement comes closer to your own views, even if neither is exactly right.
1st Statement Strongly 1st Statement Somewhat 2nd Statement Strongly 2nd Statement Somewhat
+10 -7
52 50
42 43
42
32 33 34
1930s 1970s 1990s 1970s
1930s vs. 1970s 1990s vs. 1970s
It is hard to overstate the importance of this finding. The 1930s, of course, were one of the most
trying times in our nation's history. That voters see the current situation as most analogous to
that era speaks to how fundamentally pessimistic they are about our times. It also speaks to the
kind of solutions voters believe are necessary to deal with our problems.
· 1930s: Our current situation most closely resembles the early 1930s with our economy
laid flat by speculative excesses on Wall Street and by rising inequality and stagnant
wages. Like Franklin Roosevelt did, we must restore middle class prosperity by investing
in hometowns and regions throughout the country and by curbing the power of big
business special interests.
· 1990s: Our current situation most closely resembles that of the early 1990s with a
stagnant economy suffering from irresponsible management, huge deficits and
economic inequality. Like Clinton did when he was elected, we must regain our
prosperity by restoring fiscal discipline, making millionaires pay their fair share and
giving working Americans real tax relief.
· 1970s: Our current situation most closely resembles that of the late 1970s with rising oil
and food prices and our country being challenged by enemies abroad. Like Ronald
Reagan did when he was elected in 1980, we must restore our prosperity and position of
strength in the world by cutting taxes, reducing regulation, and increasing military
spending.
© 2008 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, All Rights Reserved. August, 2008
Desire for Change Opens Door For Bold Policies Page 4
The element of the FDR comparison that particularly resonates with voters is the need to
"restore the middle class." A remarkable 82 percent find truth (nearly half finding a great deal
of truth) in the idea that America's greatness is waning because of the decline in the middle
class and that a "dramatic change" in our economic policies is required to reverse the situation
(see text box below for the full wording). Moreover, 85 percent find truth (43 percent a great
deal of truth) in the idea that the decline of the middle class is "reducing our standing in the
world [and] leaving our way of life under assault." By comparison, 66 percent of voters find truth
(27 percent a great deal) in a statement that encapsulates Reagan's vision of using American
power to promote freedom and liberty. While this is not an insignificant response, the Reagan
vision clearly does not have the power of the statements that center on the need to restore our
declining middle class.
· Restore the Middle Class: America's greatest leaders, like Jefferson, Lincoln, and
FDR, recognized that our greatness is built on a vibrant and growing middle class.
That's why they invested in programs that allowed the middle class to thrive. But now
our middle class is being squeezed by stagnant wages and rising costs while all of the
gains in our economy go only to the wealthiest among us. If we don't want to see the
American middle class disappear we need to dramatically change our country's
economic policies.
· Declining Middle Class Undermining Global Standing: The development of an
educated and affluent middle class is America's greatest achievement because it is the
foundation of our democracy and our source of power and strength in the world. But we
are now at a global crossroads. Our failure to invest in our economy, our dependence on
imported energy, and the outsourcing of middle class jobs have undermined our
economic strength and reduced our standing in the world, leaving our way of life under
assault.
· Reagan Vision: Ronald Reagan demonstrated that prosperity is best achieved when
government is kept small and taxes low. And he showed us that America, and the world,
are strongest when we use our power exceptionally to promote freedom and liberty
abroad in the face of totalitarian enemies. With our prosperity and confidence now
threatened again by a broken government at home and Islamic extremists abroad, we
would be wise to look to Reagan's vision for guidance.
Taken together, these results point to a clear conclusion: voters' concerns about the decline of
the middle class (and its effect on our global standing) are extremely deep, and lead to the
belief that the problems we now face are similar in scope and magnitude to some of the most
troubled times in our nation's history. As a result, the public is not only open to dramatic and
bold changes in our economic policies, they crave them. Specifically, there is reason to believe
the electorate would strongly support direct investment that will bring quality jobs and help
reverse the slide of the middle class especially when this is coupled with an attempt to end our
dependence on foreign oil.
"Bold" Proposals Electorally Effective
A direct test of this idea confirms that bold proposals can be effective in the context of the 2008
elections. Voters react quite positively to proposals Barack Obama has made on issues such
© 2008 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, All Rights Reserved. August, 2008
Desire for Change Opens Door For Bold Policies Page 5
as the economy, taxes, special interests, health care, energy and foreign policy. But they score
bolder proposals on the same issues nearly as highly or much higher than the policies John
McCain has offered. Some of the strongest proposals lead over 60 percent of voters to be more
likely to support Obama and, for some, 40 percent much more likely. Most score 10 to 20 points
stronger than the McCain proposals.2
The economy
Bold Obama economic Much more likely Conventional Obama Much more likely
Total more likely Total more likely
policy economic policy
We need a New Deal style
While Washington gives
investment to ensure the
billions to big oil and tax
long-term growth of our
breaks to companies that 62
economy, create quality 57 send jobs overseas, the
jobs, rebuild our
middle class is struggling to
infrastructure, and
stay afloat. I will end the
recapture our nation's
tax breaks for companies
technological lead. My plan
that outsource jobs and
will generate at least ten
instead give them to
million good jobs in the next
businesses that create jobs
four years by investing in
at home. I will eliminate the
industries like clean energy, 19
17 tax breaks for big oil and
modernizing our
instead develop new energy
transportation system, and
sources and invest in
building new community
education to develop the
healthcare, education and Total more likely Total more likely
jobs of tomorrow.
technical training centers.
Moreover, the bold set of policies held up just as well in a simulated exchange, with both sets of
policies allowing Obama to maintain his lead in a race with McCain.3 The bold policies,
however, actually allow Obama to gain ground (a net of 4 points) among those who say we
need major changes to solve America's problems. So it appears that these bold policies do a
somewhat better job of rallying the majority of voters who are dissatisfied with the status quo.
This exercise underscores that Obama can take a path to winning this election that offers bold
policies or one reflecting his current proposals. The bold path is not evidently riskier.
2
See the appendix for a list of these proposal and their scores.
3
To test the impact of a suite of "bold" policy proposals, we split the survey into two halves. Both halves heard a
battery of proposals from John McCain on government and special interests, health care, taxes, energy, the
economy, and foreign policy. One half (the "actual" half) heard a similar battery of messages from Barack Obama
based on his actual proposals. The other half heard a battery of "bold" proposals that Obama might offer instead of
his conventional messages. We re-asked the vote twice, once after the battery of domestic policies and then again
after the foreign policy proposals.
© 2008 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, All Rights Reserved. August, 2008
Desire for Change Opens Door For Bold Policies Page 6
Obama maintains lead with either bold or actual policies
Now let me ask you about your vote for president. I know it's a long way off, but if the election for president were today
and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain, for whom would you vote?
Barack Obama Lean Obama John McCain Lean McCain
BOLD POLICIES
+7 +8
49 50
42 42
46 49
39 40
Barack Obama John McCain Barack Obama John McCain
Initial Vote Final Vote
ACTUAL POLICIES
+7 +8
49 49
42 41
45 47
39 40
Barack Obama John McCain Barack Obama John McCain
Initial Vote Final Vote
Given voters' strong interest in restoring the middle class, it is not surprising that the strongest
policies are those that mention direct investment to create jobs, particularly in the form of
investment in alternative energy sources and infrastructure. An investment in quality middle
class jobs is an idea that clearly resonates with voters, and linking it to the development of
alternative domestic energy sources only increases its potency.
Iraq Priorities Approach Could Strengthen Investment Message
Our past research has shown that some of Democrats' strongest messaging on both Iraq and
the economy revolves around priorities the hundreds of billions of dollars being spent in Iraq
could be put to much better use investing in our economy at home, even as we make better
choices about our national security. This survey emphatically confirms those results.
Not surprisingly, the public has very little understanding of how much the United States spends
on defense. Most of the electorate does not know how much the country spends on the military,
but when told that the U.S. will spend $700 billion this year, 53 percent of voters think this
amount is too high (compared with 11 percent who say it is too low). More important, 64
percent of those voters think we should use that money to invest in healthcare, education and
clean energy rather than reduce the deficit or cut taxes.
© 2008 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, All Rights Reserved. August, 2008
Desire for Change Opens Door For Bold Policies Page 7
Those who seek cuts in military spending prefer investment
Which of the following would be the best way to use the money saved by cutting military spending - Cutting taxes,
reducing the budget deficit, or investing in healthcare, education and clean energy?
Investing in healthcare,
education and clean 64
energy
Reducing the deficit 22
Cutting taxes 10
Obama could shape the choice of this election with a bold message about ending the costly war
in Iraq and using those resources to invest in the technologies and industries across America
that will create quality jobs and restore the American middle class that has made America
strong.
Voters Also Want Bold Changes in Government: Spending and Accountability
While voters are intent on direct investment that revives the middle class, Democrats' ability to
make this case is constrained by worries about overspending and deficits by a 64 to 28
percent margin, voters say reigning in spending is more important than investing in national
priorities. Among independents this margin is even more pronounced.
© 2008 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, All Rights Reserved. August, 2008
Desire for Change Opens Door For Bold Policies Page 8
Worries about spending must be addressed
First Statement: To bolster our economy Second Statement: We need to get
and neglected transportation, energy federal spending and deficits under
and education systems, we need to control and be careful about big new
greatly expand public investment funded spending programs, even if it means
by long-term capital borrowing, even if it some national priorities are not addressed
means higher deficits.
First statement strongly First statement somewhat Second statement strongly Second statement somewhat
-36
64
49
28
19
First Statement - Expand Investment Second Statement - Control Spending
These results underscore the need for progressives to be as bold about changing government
as they are about bringing other kinds of change, including greater investment. Any set of bold
policies must be equally serious about proposals for reform and accountability. Indeed, strong
reform proposals were part of both the bold and conventional message suites that helped
Obama maintain his lead over McCain in this survey.
Government and special interests reform
Bold Obama reform Much more likely Conventional Obama Much more likely
Total more likely Total more likely
policy reform policy
I will enact bold ethics For too long, Washington
reforms to make sure that has been a place where
our government once again good ideas go to die
is accountable to its because of the corrupting
citizens. By downsizing influence of lobbyists. As 51
Washington and involving 47 president I will end the
the people I will eliminate lobbyists' stranglehold by
earmarks and pork closing the revolving door
spending. By enacting between government and
public financing of K-Street and banning all
campaigns I will sever the gifts from lobbyists. And I
hold special interests have will shine a light on special 16
15
over our candidates and by interests by requiring
shutting the revolving door Congress to make all of
in Congress I will reign in their earmarks and
Total more likely
the power of DC lobbyists corporate tax breaks public. Total more likely
© 2008 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, All Rights Reserved. August, 2008
Desire for Change Opens Door For Bold Policies Page 9
In prior research4 we have seen that Democratic economic arguments that lack an
accountability and reform component have difficulty dominating Republican arguments that do,
even though voters generally have a strong preference for Democrats on the economy. It is
vital that Democrats let voters know that they will rein in special interests and special interest
spending. They might do this via proposals such as public financing of campaigns, tighter
restrictions on lobbyists, or increased transparency in federal spending all of which tested well
in this survey. However this is accomplished, a strong reform element must be included for any
Democratic economic message to get a full hearing. This research shows, however, that once
this bar is cleared the country is open to a bold policy of direct investment to revive the middle
class. Voters see the current times as most similar to the era of the Great Depression, and they
demand solutions similar in scale to those Franklin Roosevelt implemented to deal with that
great challenge. Barack Obama and other Democrats have little to lose by offering the bold
prescriptions for change that the voters so clearly want.
4
GQR national survey of 1004 likely voters conducted for Democracy Corps July 21-24, 2008.
© 2008 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, All Rights Reserved. August, 2008
Desire for Change Opens Door For Bold Policies Page 10
Appendix A: Bold Obama Policy Proposals
Special Interests and Reform: I will enact bold ethics reforms to make sure that our
government once again is accountable to its citizens. By downsizing Washington and involving
the people I will eliminate earmarks and pork spending. By enacting public financing of
campaigns I will sever the hold special interests have over our candidates and by shutting the
revolving door in Congress I will reign in the power of DC lobbyists
Health Care: I will make sure every American has access to affordable health care by creating
a public health care system, based on the successful V.A. model, to compete with and
complement the existing private system. New community health centers will provide affordable
primary care for all, while regional public hospitals would handle more specialized treatment and
procedures.
Tax Reform: We need to completely overhaul the tax system and replace it with a system that
is simple, fair and provides the resources we need to meet out nation's serious challenges. I
will eliminate the loopholes that the wealthy and corporations use to avoid paying their fair share
and I will make sure that wages are not taxed at a higher rate than income earned from interest
and capital gains.
Energy: If we hope to take control of our own foreign policy and deal with the threat of global
warming we must make a real commitment to energy independence. By investing in an
alternative energy infrastructure, taking concrete steps to reduce carbon emissions and
requiring that 25 percent of our electricity come from renewable sources I will cut our oil use by
35 percent and create millions of quality jobs.
Economy: We need a New Deal style investment to ensure the long-term growth of our
economy, create quality jobs, rebuild our infrastructure, and recapture our nation's technological
lead. My plan will generate at least ten million good jobs in the next four years by investing in
industries like clean energy, modernizing our transportation system, and building new
community healthcare, education and technical training centers.
Foreign Policy: We need to radically change the way we think about protecting America's
security. Our way of life is threatened more by rising oil prices and the growing economic power
of countries like China and India than it is by fringe extremists in faraway nations. We can
protect our homeland without the occupation of Muslim countries that has made us less secure
while costing us massive resources. We need a new foreign policy that shifts billions of dollars
back home for investment in our future while making the world economy safer for the American
middle class way of life and creating a clean energy future that ends our reliance on the Middle
East and an unstable world oil market.
© 2008 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, All Rights Reserved. August, 2008
Desire for Change Opens Door For Bold Policies Page 11
Appendix B: Actual Obama Policy Proposals
Special Interests and Reform: For too long, Washington has been a place where good ideas
go to die because of the corrupting influence of lobbyists. As president I will end the lobbyists'
stranglehold by closing the revolving door between government and K-Street and banning all
gifts from lobbyists. And I will shine a light on special interests by requiring Congress to make
all of their earmarks and corporate tax breaks public.
Health Care: I will reform our healthcare system to guarantee that every American has
affordable health insurance. My plan will lower costs throughout the system, saving the typical
family 2,500 dollars a year, and allow people to choose between their current coverage or
several private and public options. And under my plan you can never be denied coverage
because of age or pre-existing condition.
Tax Reform: I will provide real tax relief for the middle class by cutting taxes for 150 million
Americans. My plan rewards work by creating a thousand-dollar tax credit for working families,
reduces the burden on struggling homeowners and eliminates income taxes on middle-class
seniors. I'll pay for my plan by eliminating Bush's tax cuts for the wealthy and closing loopholes
that allow big corporations to avoid paying their fair share.
Energy: If we hope to take control of our own foreign policy and deal with the threat of global
warming we must make a real commitment to energy independence. By investing in an
alternative energy infrastructure, implementing a cap and trade system to reduce carbon
emissions and requiring hat 25 percent of our electricity come from renewable sources I will cut
our oil use by 35 percent and create millions of quality jobs.
Economy: While Washington gives billions to big oil and tax breaks to companies that send
jobs overseas, the middle class is struggling to stay afloat. I will end the tax breaks for
companies that outsource jobs and instead give them to businesses that create jobs at home. I
will eliminate the tax breaks for big oil and instead develop new energy sources and invest in
education to develop the jobs of tomorrow.
Foreign Policy: We cannot afford more of the reckless, extreme national security policies of the
Bush years that lost us billions of dollars and thousands of lives in Iraq while making us less
safe. As president, I will strengthen America's security by responsibly bringing home our troops
from Iraq and redirecting our focus to deal with real threat of al Qaeda and making sure we do
what we need to win in Afghanistan. I will be willing to meet with leaders of all nations, friend or
foe, so we can end a period of American arrogance and revive tough diplomacy to solve
problems. And I will pursue a new alternative energy policy to reduce our dependence on oil
from dangerous regimes.
© 2008 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, All Rights Reserved. August, 2008
Desire for Change Opens Door For Bold Policies Page 12
Appendix C: McCain's Policy Proposals
Special Interests and Reform: The taxes contributed by hardworking Americans should be
used wisely and prudently on legitimate national priorities, not squandered on wasteful pet
projects and special interest earmarks. I will reform Washington by ending earmarks and pork
barrel spending so we can end the practice of deficit spending that robs the American people of
their right to responsible government.
Health Care: I will completely reform our health care system to enhance quality and control
costs by promoting competition and giving patients more power to make their own choices. I will
reform the tax code to eliminate the bias toward employer-sponsored care and provide all
families a 5000 dollar credit and health savings accounts so they can purchase private
insurance and lower their costs in the private market.
Tax Reform: To stop our economy from heading into a recession we must lower taxes for all
Americans. I will eliminate the Alternative Minimum Tax that is set to hit 25 million middle class
families, make President Bush's pro-growth tax cuts permanent and reduce our corporate tax
rate so that our businesses are competitive in the world market. And I will require a three-fifths
vote in Congress to raise taxes.
Energy: Our national security depends on our energy security, that is why I have offered a
common sense approach that reduces our dependence on foreign sources of energy and limits
our carbon emissions by harnessing market forces that will bring advanced technologies such
as alternative and nuclear energy to the market faster, promoting conservation and increasing
domestic oil production..
Economy: If we want to get our economy back on track we need to eliminate wasteful
government spending to get our budget under control. As president, I will reduce the size of
government, get spending under control, end pork barrel spending and enact a pro-growth tax
policy that reduces taxes for the middle class and entrepreneurs who are the engine of our
economy.
Foreign Policy: The global war on terrorism, threats from rogue states like Iran, and the rise of
potential strategic competitors like China mean that we must maintain our position of unrivaled
military strength. As president I will expand the size of our military, modernize our armed forces
and place more emphasis on counter-terrorism. I will do whatever is necessary to win in Iraq
and prevent a victory for our Islamic extremist enemies. Along with our allies, I will create a
League of Democracies to advance our values and defend our shared interests. And because
we cannot achieve true security as long as we rely on Middle Eastern sheiks, I will work to make
us truly energy independent in our time.
© 2008 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, All Rights Reserved. August, 2008
Desire for Change Opens Door For Bold Policies Page 13
Appendix D: Comparison of Policy Proposals
Policy Bold Obama Actual Obama McCain
Much/ Much/ Much/
Much More Much More Much More
Somewhat Somewhat Somewhat
Likely Likely Likely
More Likely More Likely More Likely
Government
32 47 35 51 26 47
Reform
Healthcare 34 52 37 53 20 37
Taxes 38 63 37 56 25 42
Energy 43 63 40 54 23 45
Economy 40 57 43 62 30 51
Foreign Policy 36 54 38 60 22 38
© 2008 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, All Rights Reserved. August, 2008