BP Future Perspectives Solving the Carbon Problem …

             BP
    Future Perspectives
Solving the Carbon Problem

Carbon Mitigation Initiative
   Princeton University
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Commentary:                      The operation of the Earth's biosphere is
                                 extremely complex, and understanding that
                                 complexity is a major scientific challenge. It is,
                                 however, a challenge that must be faced if we
                                 are to solve the carbon problem ­ the
                                 increasing amount of carbon dioxide in the
                                 atmosphere due to the burning of fossil fuels,
                                 and the changes in the climate that appear to
                                 be linked to it.


                                 Even with current temperature levels, the world
                                 is beginning to experience sea level rise and an
                                 increase in extreme weather conditions. We
                                 need to reduce the rate of C02 emissions, but
                                 without causing severe disruption to the way
                                 we live.


Title: Future Perspectives ­ Solving the Carbon Problem


                                 Princeton University is the home of the Carbon
                                 Mitigation Initiative. Established in 2000 by BP,
                                 with additional support from the Ford Motor
                                 Company, the CMI is developing radical new
                                 approaches to carbon management...


Bernie Bulkin:                   I think it's clear that global climate change is the
                                 biggest issue facing everyone in the energy
                                 industry. And BP really has made a commitment
                                 that we need to be involved in this at the state of
                                 the art of the science and we in fact need to push
                                 the state of the art of the science.
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                        The Princeton programme brings together people
                        from a wide variety of disciplines, from
                        geosciences, environmental sciences, chemistry,
                        mechanical engineering, ecology. A whole range
                        of people who in fact hardly spoke to each other
                        before, to attack the carbon problem.


Prof. Robert Socolow:   This is a unique programme in having the science
                        and the technology and the policy all in one group,
                        which is a closely knit group. We're about 50
                        people from the students through the faculty,
                        working together.


Commentary:             If the carbon problem is to be solved, it can
                        only happen on the broadest scale. The CMI
                        operates across a number of areas: the
                        development of new technologies for the
                        capture and storage of C02...policies for
                        choosing and implementing the different
                        possible strategies for reduction...and a deep
                        understanding of the planet's carbon cycle...


Prof. Steve Pacala:     Well, the first area is science. And it's basic
                        scientific research about climate and climate
                        change. So we actually build the giant computer
                        models that integrate knowledge of how the
                        atmosphere works and how greenhouse gases
                        affect the atmosphere, how they trap heat next to
                        the surface, how the oceans interact with the
                        atmosphere, and there's models of the terrestrial
                        biosphere.
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                      These things are pretty highly advanced. You take
                      these computer codes and you start with a world
                      that doesn't look like the Earth at all, and the Earth
                      will self-assemble. And then we add greenhouse
                      gases and watch the climate change. We try to
                      study why it does, and what of the myriad of
                      effects that do occur, which ones occur and why
                      they occur and where.


Ants Leetma:          We work with the carbon mitigation initiative at
                      Princeton University on two fronts. One is we
                      model the natural carbon cycle. Currently half the
                      carbon that goes into the atmosphere is taken up
                      by the land and the ocean. And so one of the key
                      questions is how will that change as the planet
                      warms. And that will determine how much carbon
                      we actually have to mitigate with technology.


                      The second aspect then is that once they propose
                      some solutions which would reduce the emissions,
                      we then want to see what that reduction actually
                      means in terms of the planet.


Prof. Steve Pacala:   We've made real progress in improving climate
                      models over the last 18 months, really
                      extraordinary progress by a lot of objective
                      measures - how well the models predict current
                      climate for instance. We've closed the gap
                      between what the models predict and what the
                      data says by more than half over the last 18
                      months. So we've really made progress there.
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Commentary:     The capture of CO2 before its emission into the
                atmosphere is the second area of focus at
                Princeton. One way of doing this is by
                removing CO2 from the exhaust gases at a
                power station or industrial plant after the fuel is
                burnt...


                But it can also be done before the fuel is burnt
                ­ through technologies that separate out CO2
                and hydrogen from coal and gas and then burn
                the hydrogen as a clean fuel.


                Part of the Princeton programme involves the
                study of the nature of hydrogen itself and how
                it can best be used as a fuel...


Prof. Ed Law:   Well, we're basically interested in the utilisation
                and combustion of hydrogen, which is a very good
                fuel as far as the emission of C02 is concerned
                because there's no C02 emission. We have found
                that when hydrogen burns, it burns in a very rapid
                mode of burning.


                But in addition we have also found that when
                regular hydrocarbon fuels, for example propane,
                when it burns it burns very nicely. It doesn't have
                those wrinkles. So then we make the suggestion
                that maybe we can mix some hydrocarbon, not too
                much, with hydrogen so that the burning could be
                smoothed. And then in a sense you moderate the
                burning intensity of hydrogen.
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Prof. Robert Socolow:         On carbon capture, we have begun to understand
                              pretty deeply how relatively inexpensive it is to
                              capture carbon dioxide from a coal plant or a
                              natural gas plant. It will not break the bank. It will
                              make energy more expensive, but if we need to do
                              it we know how to do it. It will not be more than
                              50% more expensive, probably a good deal less
                              than that, to have electricity produced from coal,
                              let's say, or natural gas, without the C02 going into
                              the atmosphere. There'll be a price premium, no
                              doubt, and we have to decide that we care about
                              the problem enough to spend that money.




Commentary:                   Having captured CO2, the next challenge is to
                              do with its storage, otherwise known as
                              sequestration. One way of doing this is to
                              store it in geological formations such as old oil
                              and gas reservoirs. Looking at the feasibility of
                              carbon dioxide sequestration is the third area
                              of the CMI's work...


Prof. Steve Pacala:           Oil and gas reservoirs that you would put carbon
                              dioxide gas in typically contain old wells, wells that
                              were drilled long ago and completed before the
                              current high level of technology was available.
                              And there's a concern that C02 in them could
                              possibly corrode the completion seals and cause
                              them to leak.


Andrew Duguid, PhD Student:   My work is on well cements and how abandoned
                              oil wells and abandoned gas wells may be used as
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              conduits from deep subsurface sequestration sites
              back to the atmosphere by carbon dioxide. So I'm
              looking at the interface between the cement and
              rock in the well. And then I'm also looking at how
              the well cement degrades when exposed to
              carbonic acid, which is a product of carbon
              sequestration.


Commentary:   As clever as the science and technology of
              carbon mitigation might turn out to be, the
              initiative recognises that it will not work
              without the right policy measures - involving
              anything from local carbon taxes to legislation
              on a global scale.


              The Princeton team has defined the steps that
              can lead to stabilisation and looked at the
              variety of ways of achieving that. Out of this
              has grown the Wedge Game - which enables
              the team to look at the tough policy choices
              that need to be made.


              Several teams explore different ways of
              reducing the rate of C02 emissions by
              constructing a wedge. This represents the 175
              billion tonnes of carbon that will need to be
              kept out of the atmosphere over the next 50
              years, if C02 is to be stabilised...
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Prof. Robert Socolow:   You ask individuals what's your favourite one, then
                        their favourites will be different. Then you can
                        visualise a political process which in some sense
                        involves negotiating among people whose
                        favourite solutions are not the same to arrive at
                        something which gives something for everybody
                        but not everything anybody wants.


Commentary:             As well as working out the policy options, the
                        programme looks at the costs of
                        implementation, including that of not acting
                        now...


Prof. Steve Pacala:     We've been able to cost out for instance a policy of
                        doing nothing, of waiting. We call it an economics
                        of regrets. And the results are surprising. It gives
                        one a very different take on the need to act now.


                        But the main contribution there has been to apply
                        relatively standard economics to the portfolio of
                        existing technologies, and discover of course that
                        although costly this is not titanically costly. It's
                        costly at the sort of 1% of GDP level.


Montage


Bernie Bulkin:          Princeton is one of the great centres for carbon
                        cycle science and for modelling of the whole
                        carbon systems. And for understanding the
                        carbon system and bringing that together with the
                        sequestration idea and developing the ideas about
                        how to do something of this scale - this is a huge
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                        scale problem ­ to do something massive in order
                        to have an impact.


Prof. Robert Socolow:   Our goal is to build the world's courage that we
                        can work on this problem together across nations,
                        and over a couple of generations we will be able to
                        bring the Earth into some greater balance than it
                        would otherwise be. We don't have to load this
                        problem onto the generation, two generations or
                        three generations from now. We can do it in this
                        half century instead of putting it off to the second
                        half of this century.


Prof. Steve Pacala:     The best possible outcome for me is a new
                        alliance. A new alliance globally that leads to a
                        solution to this problem in our lifetimes. It won't be
                        a completed solution. What it will be is a path,
                        we'll be on a path so that if we just stay the course
                        this problem will be solved. We won't leave it to
                        our children and grandchildren and we'll do the
                        responsible thing for the planet.


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