Information about http://www.cbo.gov/budget/data/econproj.pdf
CBO's Economic Projections for Calendar Years 2008 to 2018 …
Tags: billions of dollars, calendar year, calendar years, cbo, core consumer, core pce, economic projections, gdp, gdp price index, nominal gdp, percentage change, real gdp, treasury bill rate, unemployment rate, year treasury note,Pages: 3
Language: english
Created: Wed Feb 20 11:06:30 2008
Display cached document
Page 1
Page 2
Page 3
CBO's Economic Projections for Calendar Years 2008 to 2018
Actual Forecast Projected Annual Average
2007 2008 2009 2010 to 2013 2014 to 2018
Year to Year (Percentage change)
a b
Nominal GDP (Billions of dollars) 13,843 14,358 14,946 18,278 22,625
Nominal GDP 4.9 3.7 4.1 5.2 4.4
Real GDP 2.2 1.9 2.3 3.2 2.5
GDP Price Index 2.7 1.8 1.7 1.9 1.9
PCE Price Indexc 2.5 2.4 1.8 1.8 1.9
Core PCE Price Indexd 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8
Consumer Price Indexe 2.9 2.8 1.9 2.1 2.2
Core Consumer Price Indexf 2.3 2.2 1.9 2.1 2.2
Calendar Year Average (Percent)
Unemployment Rate 4.6 5.2 5.5 4.9 4.8
Three-Month Treasury Bill Rate 4.4 2.1 2.4 4.6 4.7
Ten-Year Treasury Note Rate 4.6 3.6 3.8 5.1 5.2
Tax Bases (Billions of dollars)
a b
Economic profits 1,601 1,588 1,588 1,831 2,310
a b
Wages and salaries 6,367 6,651 6,936 8,421 10,364
Tax Bases (Percentage of GDP)
Economic profits 11.6 11.1 10.6 10.2 10.0
Wages and salaries 46.0 46.3 46.4 46.2 45.9
Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter (Percentage change)
Nominal GDP 5.1 3.3 4.8 5.1 4.3
Real GDP 2.5 1.6 3.0 3.1 2.4
GDP Price Index 2.6 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.9
PCE Price Indexc 3.4 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9
Core PCE Price Indexd 2.1 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9
Consumer Price Indexe 4.0 2.1 1.9 2.1 2.2
Core Consumer Price Indexf 2.3 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.2
Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics; Federal Reserve Board.
Note: GDP = gross domestic product; PCE = personal consumption expenditure.
a. Level in 2013.
b. Level in 2018.
c. The personal consumption expenditure chained price index.
d. The personal consumption expenditure chained price index excluding prices for food and energy.
e. The consumer price index for all urban consumers.
f. The consumer price index for all urban consumers excluding prices for food and energy.
CBO's Current and Previous Economic Projections for Calendar Years
2008 to 2018
Actual Forecast Projected Annual Average
2007 2008 2009 2010 to 2013 2014 to 2018
Nominal GDP (Billions of dollars)
a b
February 2008 13,843 14,358 14,946 18,278 22,625
a b
January 2008 13,828 14,330 14,997 18,243 22,593
Nominal GDP (Percentage change)
February 2008 4.9 3.7 4.1 5.2 4.4
January 2008 4.8 3.6 4.7 5.0 4.4
Real GDP (Percentage change)
February 2008 2.2 1.9 2.3 3.2 2.5
January 2008 2.2 1.7 2.8 3.1 2.5
GDP Price Index (Percentage change)
February 2008 2.7 1.8 1.7 1.9 1.9
January 2008 2.5 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.9
Consumer Price Indexc (Percentage change)
February 2008 2.9 2.8 1.9 2.1 2.2
January 2008 2.8 2.9 2.3 2.2 2.2
Unemployment Rate (Percent)
February 2008 4.6 5.2 5.5 4.9 4.8
January 2008 4.6 5.1 5.4 4.9 4.8
Three-Month Treasury Bill Rate (Percent)
February 2008 4.4 2.1 2.4 4.6 4.7
January 2008 4.4 3.2 4.2 4.6 4.7
Ten-Year Treasury Note Rate (Percent)
February 2008 4.6 3.6 3.8 5.1 5.2
January 2008 4.6 4.2 4.9 5.2 5.2
Tax Bases (Billions of dollars)
Economic profits
a b
February 2008 1,601 1,588 1,588 1,831 2,310
a b
January 2008 1,599 1,620 1,649 1,842 2,320
Wages and salaries
a b
February 2008 6,367 6,651 6,936 8,421 10,364
a b
January 2008 6,368 6,615 6,913 8,401 10,354
Tax Bases (Percentage of GDP)
Economic profits
February 2008 11.6 11.1 10.6 10.2 10.0
January 2008 11.6 11.3 11.0 10.3 10.1
Wages and salaries
February 2008 46.0 46.3 46.4 46.2 45.9
January 2008 46.0 46.2 46.1 46.1 45.9
Memorandum:
Real Potential GDP (Percentage change)
February 2008 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5
January 2008 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5
Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statis-
tics; Federal Reserve Board.
Note: GDP = gross domestic product; percentage changes are measured from one year to the next.
a. Level in 2013.
b. Level in 2018.
c. The consumer price index for all urban consumers.
Comparison of Economic Forecasts by CBO, the
Administration, and the Blue Chip Consensus for
Calendar Years 2008 to 2013
Projected
Actual Forecast Annual Average,
2007 2008 2009 2010 to 2013
Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter (Percentage Change)
Nominal GDP
CBO 5.1 3.3 4.8 5.1
Administration 5.1 4.8 5.1 4.9
Blue Chip consensus 5.1 3.8 5.0 n.a.
Real GDP
CBO 2.5 1.6 3.0 3.1
Administration 2.7 2.7 3.0 2.9
Blue Chip consensus 2.5 1.6 2.8 n.a.
GDP Price Index
CBO 2.6 1.7 1.7 1.9
Administration 2.3 2.0 2.0 2.0
Blue Chip consensus 2.6 2.2 2.1 n.a.
Consumer Price Indexa
CBO 4.0 2.1 1.9 2.1
Administration 3.9 2.1 2.2 2.3
Blue Chip consensus 4.0 2.4 2.3 n.a.
Calendar Year Average (Percent)
Unemployment Rate
CBO 4.6 5.2 5.5 4.9
Administration 4.6 4.9 4.9 4.8
Blue Chip consensus 4.6 5.2 5.3 n.a.
Three-Month Treasury Bill Rate
CBO 4.4 2.1 2.4 4.6
Administration 4.4 3.7 3.8 4.1
Blue Chip consensus 4.4 2.4 3.1 n.a.
Ten-Year Treasury Note Rate
CBO 4.6 3.6 3.8 5.1
Administration 4.7 4.6 4.9 5.2
Blue Chip consensus 4.6 3.8 4.4 n.a.
Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis;
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; Federal Reserve Board; Aspen Publishers,
Inc., Blue Chip Economic Indicators (February 10, 2008); Council of Economic Advisers,
Department of the Treasury, and Office of Management and Budget, "Administration Eco-
nomic Forecast" (joint press release, November 29, 2007).
Notes: The Blue Chip consensus is the average of about 50 forecasts by private-sector economists.
The latest Blue Chip consensus does not extend past 2009.
GDP = gross domestic product; n.a. = not applicable.
a. The consumer price index for all urban consumers.