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Chapter 7 Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions In 2004, non-OECD…
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Chapter 7
Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions
In 2004, non-OECD emissions of carbon dioxide were greater than OECD emissions
for the first time. In 2030, carbon dioxide emissions from the non-OECD countries
are projected to exceed those from the OECD countries by 57 percent.
Carbon dioxide is the most abundant anthropogenic countries (2.6 percent) is more than three times the
(human-caused) greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. In increase projected for the OECD countries (0.8 percent),
recent years, atmospheric concentrations of carbon diox- carbon dioxide emissions from the non-OECD countries
ide have been rising at a rate of about 0.5 percent per in 2030, at 26.2 billion metric tons, are projected to
year, and because anthropogenic emissions of carbon exceed those from the OECD countries by 57 percent.
dioxide result primarily from the combustion of fossil
fuels for energy, world energy use has emerged at the The relative contributions of different fossil fuels to total
center of the climate change debate. In the IEO2007 refer- energy-related carbon dioxide emissions have changed
ence case, world carbon dioxide emissions are projected over time. In 1990, emissions from petroleum and other
to rise from 26.9 billion metric tons in 2004 to 33.9 billion liquids combustion made up an estimated 42 percent of
metric tons in 2015 and 42.9 billion metric tons in 2030.17 the world total. In 2004, the petroleum share was 40 per-
cent, and in 2030 its share is projected to be 36 percent, of
From 2003 to 2004, carbon dioxide emissions from the the world total (Figure 78). Carbon dioxide emissions
non-OECD countries grew by almost 10 percent, largely from natural gas combustion, which accounted for 19
because of a 17-percent increase in coal-related emis- percent of the total in 1990, increased to 20 percent of the
sions in non-OECD Asia, while emissions from the 2004 total. That share is projected to rise to 21 percent in
OECD countries grew by less than 2 percent. The result 2030. Coal's share in 2004 was the same as its share in
of the large increase in non-OECD emissions was that 1990, at 39 percent; however, its share is projected to
2004 marked the first time in history that energy-related increase to 43 percent in 2030. Coal is the most car-
carbon dioxide emissions from the non-OECD countries bon-intensive of the fossil fuels, and it is the fastest-
exceeded those from the OECD countries (Figure 77). growing energy source in the IEO2007 reference case
Further, because the projected average annual increase projection.
in emissions from 2004 to 2030 in the non-OECD
Figure 77. World Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Figure 78. World Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide
Emissions by Region, 2003-2030 Emissions by Fuel Type, 1990-2030
Billion Metric Tons Billion Metric Tons
30 50
OECD Non-OECD 26 History Projections
24
22 40
20 19 Total
17 17 30
15 16
14 15
13 13 13
12
20
Coal
10
10 Liquids
Natural Gas
0 0
2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 1990 2004 2010 2020 2030
Sources: 2003 and 2004: Energy Information Administration Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA),
(EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site
site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analy-
Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007). sis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
17 In keeping with current international practice, IEO2007 presents data on greenhouse gas emissions in billion metric tons carbon diox-
ide equivalent. The figures can be converted to carbon equivalent units by multiplying by 12/44.
Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 73
The increasing share of coal is reflective of its important There are some signs that concerns about global climate
role in the energy mix of non-OECD countries--espe- change are beginning to affect the world fuel mix. In
cially China and India. In 1990, China and India com- recent years, many countries have begun to express new
bined for 13 percent of world emissions, but by 2004 that interest in expanding their use of non-carbon-emitting
share had risen to 22 percent--largely because of a nuclear power, in part to stem the growth of greenhouse
strong increase in coal use in these two countries. This gas emissions. The IEO2007 reference case projection for
trend is projected to continue; and by 2030, carbon diox- electricity generation from nuclear power in 2030 is
ide emissions from China and India combined are pro- up by almost 10 percent from the IEO2006 projection,
jected to account for 31 percent of total world emissions, reflecting a generally more favorable perception of
with China alone responsible for 26 percent of the world nuclear power as an alternative to carbon-producing
total. As both economies expand, coal will become a fossil fuels for electric power production. Many of the
greater part of the world energy mix and play a corre- industrialized nations of OECD Europe have ratified the
spondingly larger role in the composition of world car- Kyoto Protocol, and in the IEO2007 reference case the
bon dioxide emissions. projected rate of decline in the region's nuclear electric-
ity generation is considerably slower, at 0.4 percent per
The Kyoto Protocol, which requires participating year, than the rate of 1.0 percent per year that was pro-
"Annex I" countries to reduce their greenhouse gas jected in the IEO2006 reference case.
emissions collectively to an annual average of about 5
percent below their 1990 level over the 2008-2012 period, Reference Case
entered into force on February 16, 2005. Annex I coun-
tries include the 24 original OECD countries, the Euro- Carbon Dioxide Emissions
pean Union, and 14 countries that are considered In the IEO2007 reference case, world energy-related car-
"economies in transition." Although the Protocol is tech- bon dioxide emissions are projected to grow by an aver-
nically "in force," it would have an effect on only one age of 1.8 percent per year from 2004 to 2030 (Table 11).
year of the IEO2007 forecast--2010. The IEO2007 projec- For the OECD countries, total emissions are projected to
tions do not explicitly include the impacts of the Kyoto average 0.8-percent annual growth, from 13.5 billion
Protocol, because the treaty does not indicate the meth- metric tons in 2004 to 14.7 billion metric tons in 2015 and
ods by which ratifying parties will implement their obli- 16.7 billion metric tons in 2030. The highest rate of
gations. Moreover, the participants have been unable to increase among the OECD countries is projected for
agree on a second commitment period, nor on any Mexico, at 2.3 percent per year (Figure 79). Mexico is less
actions that might occur after 2012. Until those issues are developed than most of the OECD countries, and it is
resolved, it will be difficult to project the effects of the projected to have the highest GDP growth rate in the
Kyoto Protocol through 2030.18 OECD region. Much of that GDP growth is expected to
Table 11. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region, 1990-2030
(Billion Metric Tons)
History Projections Average Annual Percent Change
Region 1990 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 1990-2004 2004-2030
OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.4 13.5 14.1 14.7 15.2 15.9 16.7 1.2% 0.8%
North America . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.8 6.9 7.3 7.8 8.2 8.8 9.4 1.3% 1.2%
Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.7 0.5% 0.3%
Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.5% 0.6%
Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.8 13.5 16.8 19.2 21.6 23.9 26.2 2.3% 2.6%
Europe and Eurasia . . . . . . . 4.2 2.8 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.9 -2.8% 1.2%
Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.6 7.4 9.7 11.4 13.1 14.8 16.5 5.2% 3.1%
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 1.3 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.3 4.4% 2.3%
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.7 2.5% 2.3%
Central and South America . . 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.9 3.1% 2.3%
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.2 26.9 30.9 33.9 36.9 39.8 42.9 1.7% 1.8%
Sources: 1990 and 2004: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site
www.eia.doe.gov/iea. 2010-2030: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
18 For a modeling analysis of the effects of the Kyoto Protocol, see Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2006,
DOE/EIA-0484(2006) (Washington, DC, June 2006), "Kyoto Protocol Case," pp. 75-79, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo.
74 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007
come from energy-intensive industries. For all the other (Figure 80). The highest growth rate in the non-OECD
OECD countries, annual increases in carbon dioxide regions is projected for China, at 3.4 percent annually
emissions are projected to average less than 1.5 percent, from 2004 to 2030, reflecting the country's continued
reflecting the overall maturity of their energy infrastruc- heavy reliance on fossil fuels, especially coal, over the
tures. In Japan, emissions are projected to increase by 0.1 projection period. China's energy-related emissions of
percent per year from 2004 to 2030, and the average for carbon dioxide are projected to exceed U.S. emissions by
OECD Europe is 0.3 percent per year. about 5 percent in 2010 and by 41 percent in 2030. The
lowest growth rate in the non-OECD region is projected
For the non-OECD countries, total carbon dioxide emis- for Russia, at 1.0 percent per year. Over the projection
sions are projected to average 2.6-percent annual growth period, Russia is expected to expand its reliance on
indigenous natural gas resources and nuclear power to
fuel electricity generation, and a decline in its popula-
Figure 79. Average Annual Growth in Energy- tion growth rate is expected to slow the overall rate of
Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions in increase in energy demand.
the OECD Economies, 2004-2030
By fuel, world carbon dioxide emissions from the con-
Mexico 2.3
sumption of oil and other liquids are projected to grow
South Korea 1.3 at an average annual rate of 1.4 percent from 2004 to
Australia/ 2030. The average growth rates for the OECD and
New Zealand 1.2
non-OECD regions are projected to be 0.6 percent and
United States 1.1 2.3 percent per year, respectively (Figure 81). The high-
est rate of growth in petroleum-related carbon dioxide
Canada 1.0
emissions is projected for China, at 3.5 percent per year,
OECD Europe 0.3 as its demand for liquid fuels increases to meet growing
demand in the transportation and industrial sectors. The
Japan 0.1
United States is expected to remain the largest source of
Total OECD 0.8 petroleum-related carbon dioxide emissions throughout
the period, with projected emissions of 3.3 billion metric
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0
tons in 2030--still 66 percent above the corresponding
Percent per Year projection for China.
Sources: 2004: Energy Information Administration (EIA),
International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site Carbon dioxide emissions from natural gas combustion
www.eia.doe.gov/iea. 2030: EIA, System for the Analysis of worldwide are projected to increase on average by 1.9
Global Energy Markets (2007). percent per year, to 9.0 billion metric tons in 2030, with
Figure 80. Average Annual Growth in Energy- Figure 81. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions
Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions in from Liquids Combustion by Region,
the Non-OECD Economies, 2004-2030 1990-2030
Russia 1.0 Billion Metric Tons
10
Other Europe
and Eurasia 1.6 History Projections
China 3.4
8
India 2.6 OECD
Other Asia 2.6
6
Middle East 2.3
Africa 2.3 Non-OECD
4
Brazil 2.3
Other Central and
South America 2.3
2
Total Non-OECD 2.6
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0
0
Percent per Year 1990 2004 2010 2020 2030
Sources: 2004: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA),
International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site
www.eia.doe.gov/iea. 2030: EIA, System for the Analysis of www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analy-
Global Energy Markets (2007). sis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 75
the OECD countries averaging 1.2 percent and the non- Carbon Dioxide Intensity Measures
OECD countries 2.6 percent (Figure 82). Again, China is Emissions per Dollar of GDP
projected to see the most rapid growth in emissions,
averaging 6.5 percent annually; however, China's emis- In all countries and regions, carbon dioxide intensity--
sions from natural gas combustion amounted to only 0.1 expressed in emissions per unit of economic output--
billion metric tons in 2004, and in 2030 they are projected are projected to improve (decline) over the projection
to total only 0.4 billion metric tons, or less than 5 percent period as the world economy moves into a post-indus-
of the world total. In contrast, the growth in U.S. emis- trial phase. In 2004, estimated carbon dioxide intensity
sions is projected to average 0.6 percent per year, but the was 470 metric tons per million dollars of GDP in the
projected level of 1.4 billion metric tons in 2030 is more OECD region and 516 metric tons per million dollars in
than triple the projection for China. the non-OECD region (Table 12).19
Because of the high rate of economic growth projected
Total carbon dioxide emissions from the combustion of for the non-OECD countries, their carbon dioxide inten-
coal throughout the world are projected to increase by sity in 2030 is projected to be about 263 metric tons per
2.2 percent per year, from 10.6 billion metric tons in 2004 million dollars. In the OECD countries, carbon dioxide
to 18.5 billion metric tons in 2030. Total coal-related intensity in 2030 is projected to be 306 metric tons per
emissions from the non-OECD countries have been million dollars. China, with a relatively high projected
greater than those from the OECD countries since 1987, rate of growth in emissions (3.4 percent per year), has an
and in 2030 they are projected to be more than double even higher projected growth rate for GDP (6.5 percent).
the OECD total (Figure 83), in large part because of the
increase in coal use projected for China and India. In 2030, OECD Europe is projected to have the lowest
Together, China and India account for 72 percent of the carbon dioxide intensity among the OECD regions, at
projected world increment in coal-related carbon diox- 235 metric tons per million dollars, followed by Mexico
ide emissions. For China alone, coal-related emissions at 273 metric tons per million dollars and Japan at 292
are projected to grow by an average of 3.3 percent annu- metric tons per million dollars. Without carbon dioxide
ally, from 3.8 billion metric tons in 2004 to 8.8 billion constraints, Canada is projected to have the highest car-
metric tons (48 percent of the world total) in 2030. India's bon dioxide intensity in the OECD region in 2030, at 410
carbon dioxide emissions from coal combustion are pro- metric tons per million dollars, followed by Australia/
jected to total 1.4 billion metric tons in 2030, accounting New Zealand at 400 metric tons per million dollars. U.S.
for 8 percent of the world total.
Figure 82. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions Figure 83. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions
from Natural Gas Combustion from Coal Combustion by Region,
by Region, 1990-2030 1990-2030
Billion Metric Tons Billion Metric Tons
6 15
History Projections History Projections
Non-OECD Non-OECD
4 10
OECD
2 5
OECD
0 0
1990 2004 2010 2020 2030 1990 2004 2010 2020 2030
Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA),
International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site
www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analy- www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analy-
sis of Global Energy Markets (2007). sis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
19 GDP is measured in chain-weighted 2000 dollars converted to the currency of the relevant country or region, based on purchasing
power parity.
76 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007
carbon dioxide intensity in 2030 is projected to be 353 Figure 84. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions
metric tons per million dollars of GDP. per Capita by Region, 1990-2030
Metric Tons per Person
Emissions per Capita 15
History Projections
Another measure of carbon dioxide intensity is emis-
sions per person. Carbon dioxide emissions per capita in
the OECD region are significantly higher than in the OECD
non-OECD region (Figure 84). If non-OECD countries 10
consumed as much energy per capita as the OECD coun-
tries, the projection for world carbon dioxide emissions
in 2030 would be much larger, because the non-OECD
countries would consume about 3.5 times more energy 5
than the current reference case estimate of 404 quadril- Non-OECD
lion Btu. And, given the expectation that non-OECD
countries will rely heavily on fossil fuels to meet their
energy needs, the increase in carbon dioxide emissions 0
would be even greater. 1990 2004 2010 2020 2030
Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA),
Among the countries of the non-OECD region, Russia International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site
has the highest projected increase in carbon dioxide www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analy-
emissions per capita in the IEO2007 reference case, from sis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table 12. Carbon Dioxide Intensity by Region and Country, 1980-2030
(Metric Tons per Million 2000 U.S. Dollars of Gross Domestic Product)
Average Annual
History Projections Percent Change
1990- 2004-
Region 1980 1990 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004 2030
OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 731 565 470 419 385 353 328 306 -1.3% -1.6%
United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 917 701 553 486 448 407 378 353 -1.7% -1.7%
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 867 693 581 545 490 465 437 410 -1.3% -1.3%
Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 395 441 379 380 353 329 300 273 -1.1% -1.3%
Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 672 507 394 349 316 284 258 235 -1.8% -2.0%
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 483 355 375 336 319 307 299 292 0.4% -1.0%
South Korea. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 883 719 694 543 488 451 418 392 -0.3% -2.2%
Australia/New Zealand. . . . . . . . 693 678 621 590 529 480 443 400 -0.6% -1.7%
Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 687 701 516 434 383 338 298 263 -2.2% -2.6%
Europe/Eurasia . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,018 1,164 846 643 562 504 446 392 -2.3% -2.9%
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 882 1,042 883 689 606 548 494 441 -1.2% -2.6%
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,242 1,366 796 587 511 454 396 344 -3.8% -3.2%
Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 738 605 468 393 346 305 269 238 -1.8% -2.6%
China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,766 1,120 610 500 425 367 321 284 -4.2% -2.9%
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 305 340 298 227 202 178 158 138 -0.9% -2.9%
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 400 352 363 319 302 276 248 220 0.2% -1.9%
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 454 860 887 821 743 677 609 545 0.2% -1.9%
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 398 448 425 388 344 301 261 223 -0.4% -2.4%
Central and South America . . . . 314 307 311 288 273 252 230 209 0.1% -1.5%
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 214 215 231 227 216 201 186 174 0.5% -1.1%
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 393 388 374 332 313 285 259 230 -0.3% -1.8%
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 713 621 492 427 384 344 309 278 -1.6% -2.1%
Note: GDP is expressed in terms of purchasing power parity.
Sources: 1980-2004: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site
www.eia.doe.gov/iea. 2010-2030: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 77
12 metric tons per person in 2004 to 17 metric tons per above the trend line for 2004. Two (South Korea and
person in 2030. Russia continues to be a fairly inefficient Australia/New Zealand) are above the trend line, and
energy consumer. With Soviet-era capital equipment three (Mexico, OECD Europe, and Japan) are below the
that has not yet been replaced and a wealth of relatively trend line. Factors that can influence the position of a
inexpensive fossil fuel resources, there has been little country or region relative to the trend line include level
incentive for Russia to introduce energy conservation or of industrialization, climate, population density, energy
efficiency measures. The lowest levels of per capita efficiency, and fuel mix. For example, South Korea,
emissions in the non-OECD region, and in the world, are which is above the trend line, is still in the process of
in India and Africa, where they are projected to remain industrialization. Australia has a low population den-
at about 1 metric ton per person through 2030. sity and relies heavily on coal for its electricity genera-
tion, having no nuclear power capacity. Both Europe
The OECD countries have higher levels of carbon diox- and Japan have relatively dense populations, and both
ide emissions per capita, in proportion to their higher have nuclear power generation capacity. Also, the econ-
per capita incomes. In the United States, emissions per omies of both Europe and Japan have entered the
capita are projected to rise from 20 metric tons in 2004 to post-industrial phase. The United States benefits from
22 metric tons in 2030. In both Canada and Australia/ post-industrialization and nuclear power but has rela-
New Zealand, emissions per capita are projected to rise tively low population density in comparison with
from 18 metric tons in 2004 to 19 metric tons in 2030. In Europe and Japan.
Mexico, with the lowest level of per capita emissions
among the OECD countries, an increase from 4 metric Of the non-OECD countries shown in Figure 85, Brazil is
tons in 2004 to 5 metric tons in 2030 is projected. the farthest below the trend line. Factors contributing to
Brazil's position include a relatively warm climate, a
As shown in Figures 85 and 86, there is a strong correla- high rate of ethanol use for transportation, and ample
tion between income and emissions per capita. In the fig- hydropower capacity for electricity generation. Africa,
ures, countries and regions that are plotted on the trend India, other non-OECD Asia, and Central and South
line produce roughly the average amount of carbon America (excluding Brazil) are slightly below the trend
dioxide emissions per capita relative to income per line. China is slightly above the trend line. Russia is well
capita. Countries and regions that appear above the above the trend line. The other countries of non-OECD
trend line are more carbon-intensive than average, and Europe and Eurasia are above the trend line, as is the
those below the trend line are less carbon-intensive than Middle East.
average.
In the 2030 projections, most countries and regions have
Of the OECD countries and regions shown in Figure 85, roughly the same positions relative to the trend line
two (Canada and the United States) are situated slightly (Figure 86) that they did in 2004; however, there are
Figure 85. Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Figure 86. Carbon Dioxide Emissions and
Gross Domestic Product per Capita Gross Domestic Product per Capita
by Region, 2004 by Region, 2030
25 25
OECD OECD
Non-OECD Non-OECD United States
&
Carbon Dioxide Emissions
Carbon Dioxide Emissions
United States Australia/New Zealand
&
(Metric Tons) per Capita
(Metric Tons) per Capita
20 20
Canada Canada &&
Australia/New Zealand
& & Russia &
15 15 South Korea
&
&
Russia
10 South Korea & &
Japan 10
Other Non-OECD
& Japan
&&
Europe/Eurasia
&
OECD Europe Middle East
& & OECD Europe
& Middle East China
5 & Other Non-OECD Europe/Eurasia Other Non-OECD Asia
5 &Mexico
China
& Other Central/South America
&Mexico & Other Central/South America
Africa & &&Other Non-OECD Asia
&&India Brazil Africa & &
& &
Brazil
India
0 0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Gross Domestic Product Gross Domestic Product
(Thousand Dollars) per Capita (Thousand Dollars) per Capita
Source: Derived from Energy Information Administration, Source: Energy Information Administration, System for the
International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
www.eia.doe.gov/iea.
78 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007
some exceptions. China moves from slightly above the annually from 2004 to 2030, as compared with 1.8 per-
trend for 2004 to slightly below the trend for 2030, cent in the reference case. For the OECD countries, the
mainly as a result of its projected rapid economic growth projected average increase is 1.2 percent per year; for the
and movement toward a post-industrial economy. non-OECD countries, the projected average increase is
China's GDP is projected to increase by 6.5 percent per 3.0 percent per year. In the low growth case, world car-
year from 2004 to 2030, while its carbon dioxide emis- bon dioxide emissions are projected to increase by 1.4
sions increase by 3.4 percent per year. In addition, percent per year, with averages of 0.4 percent per year in
China's projected population growth rate is lower than the OECD countries and 2.1 percent per year in the
the rates projected for most of the other non-OECD non-OECD countries (compared with 0.8 percent and
nations (excluding non-OECD Europe and Eurasia). 2.6 percent, respectively, in the reference case). Total
Among the other non-OECD countries, India is pro- emissions worldwide are projected to be 38.4 billion
jected to be the farthest below the trend line for 2030-- metric tons in 2030 in the low growth case and 47.6 bil-
surpassing Brazil--indicating that its projected eco- lion metric tons in the high growth case--24 percent
nomic growth is less carbon-intensive than in other higher than projected in the low growth case (Figure 87).
countries, as it moves more toward service industries The projections for emissions by fuel show similar varia-
rather than energy-intensive manufacturing. Per capita tions across the cases.
GDP in India is projected to grow by 4.5 percent per year
from 2004 to 2030, while its carbon dioxide emissions Alternative World Oil Price Cases
per capita are projected to increase by only 1.5 percent
per year. The projections for carbon dioxide emissions in the
IEO2007 low and high world oil price cases (Figure 88)
Alternative Macroeconomic Growth show smaller variations from the reference case than do
those in the macroeconomic growth cases. In 2030, as
Cases compared with the reference case projection (42.9 billion
Economic growth is the most significant factor underly- metric tons), total carbon dioxide emissions are pro-
ing the projections for growth in carbon dioxide emis- jected to be higher in the low price case (43.9 billion met-
sions in the mid-term, as the world continues to rely on ric tons) and lower in the high price case (41.8 billion
fossil fuels for most of its energy use. Accordingly, pro- metric tons). Thus, there is a 5-percent difference
jections of world carbon dioxide emissions are lower in between the projections in the two alternative world oil
the IEO2007 low economic growth case and higher in the price cases, as compared with a 24-percent difference
high economic growth case. between the alternative macroeconomic growth cases.
In the high growth case, world carbon dioxide emissions In the world oil price cases, natural gas prices are
are projected to increase at an average rate of 2.2 percent affected more strongly than coal prices. Because natural
Figure 87. Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region Figure 88. Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region
in Three Economic Growth Cases, in Three World Oil Price Cases,
2004 and 2030 2004 and 2030
Billion Metric Tons Billion Metric Tons
50 50
Non-OECD Non-OECD
40 OECD 40 OECD
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
2004 2030 2004 2030
Low Reference High Low Reference High
Growth Growth Oil Price Oil Price
Sources: 2004: Energy Information Administration, Interna- Sources: 2004: Energy Information Administration, Interna-
tional Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. tional Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.
doe.gov/iea. 2030: Energy Information Administration, System doe.gov/iea. 2030: Energy Information Administration, System
for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007). for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 79
gas prices are projected to rise with oil prices in the high from natural gas combustion in 2030 are projected to
price case, both oil and natural gas lose market share to total 8.7 billion metric tons worldwide, down from 9.0
coal. In the IEO2007 reference case, coal's share of total billion metric tons in the reference case. In the low oil
energy use is projected to increase to 28 percent; in the price case, coal's share of total energy use drops to 26
high price case, its share increases to 31 percent. As a percent in 2030.
result, in the high price case, carbon dioxide emissions
80 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007