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                                                                           Rocky Mountain Institute
                                                                                      (970) 927-3851
                                                                                   outreach@rmi.org
                                                                              www.oilendgame.com




                            Winning the Oil Endgame
                                          Fact Sheet

      STRENGTHEN NATIONAL SECURITY, ENERGY INDEPENDENCE, AND THE
                              ECONOMY

·   U.S. global competitiveness, economic stability, and national security are compromised by over-
    reliance on foreign oil, particularly Middle Eastern oil.
·   The United States consumes 26 percent, produces nine percent and owns two percent of the
    world's oil.
·   The United States imports nearly 60 percent of its oil (and rising). With Saudi Arabia the only
    major producer with capacity to increase supply, national security is a serious issue.
·   An $18 billion annual investment over ten years--the cost of building the tools to get the United
    States off oil forever--is small compared to America's $120 billion/year oil import bill and U.S.
    security investments. For example, the United States spends $50+ billion annually (in peacetime)
    for Persian Gulf intervention readiness.
·   Getting the United States off oil would decrease carbon dioxide emissions by one-fourth with no
    additional cost or effort.


      SAVE HALF U.S. OIL THROUGH EFFICIENCY, COMPETITIVE BIOFUELS,
                            SAVED NATURAL GAS

·   Two-thirds to three-quarters of light vehicles' fuel use is weight-related. Each unit of energy
    saved at the wheels saves seven to eight units of gasoline.
·   In today's average car, 87 percent of fuel energy never reaches the wheels; only half the
    rest--about six percent of fuel energy--accelerates the car. Less than one percent actually
    moves the driver.
·   Fully using proven technologies to wring more work form each barrel of oil can ultimately save
    half of projected 2025 U.S. oil. Saving each barrel would cost $12 (in 2000 dollars). Compared
    with the government's 2025 price forecast of $26 per barrel, that means an annual savings of
    $133 billion by 2025.
·   Once half the oil is saved by efficient use, the other half can be profitably replaced by competitive
    biofuels, such as ethanol and biodiesel, and by saved natural gas.
·   The European Union produced 17 percent more biofuels last year than the United States did.
·   Brazil has replaced one-fourth of its gasoline with cost-competitive, unsubsidized ethanol made
    from sugarcane grown on five percent of its total cropland. Initial startup subsidies have been
    repaid 50 times by oil savings.
·   A modern U.S. ethanol industry would be based on woody crops (like switchgrass and poplar)
    that would not interfere with food-crop production.
·   Growing and refining biofuels will create 750,000 new agriculture jobs by 2025.
·   A 2025 fleet as efficient as the best hybrid cars and SUVs on the market this year would save
    one-sixth of all 2025 oil use or $45 billion per year, equivalent to two Persian Gulfs of oil
    imports.
·   A $90 billion investment to revitalize transportation equipment, combined with a $90 billion
    investment to reinvigorate rural economies, would create one million new jobs.


          EMBRACE INNOVATION TO BECOME GLOBALLY COMPETITIVE

·   U.S. automakers face stiff competition from Japan and the European Union--both already invest
    considerable resources in developing fuel-efficient vehicles.
·   U.S. automakers' market share for light vehicles is steadily declining, with SUVs making up the
    last profit bastion. Toyota has market capitalization greater than the "Big Three" combined.
·   Boeing's fuel-efficient 7E7 Dreamliner uses one fifth less fuel than previous models, yet sells at
    the same price or less.


                             BELIEVE IN SPEED-OF-CHANGE

·   Major technological transformations take 12­15 years to go from 10 to 90 percent adoption,
    based on historical examples.
·   In the 1920's, U.S. automakers switched from 85 percent open wood bodies to 70 percent closed
    steel bodies in six years.
·   In just six months during World War II, the U.S. switched from making four million light
    vehicles per year to making tanks and planes that won the war.
·   During 1977­1985, the U.S. economy grew 27 percent while oil use fell 17 percent, and oil
    imports from the Persian Gulf fell 87 percent.
·   Speeding entry and adoption of state-of-the-art vehicles would save American motorists an
    estimated $390 billion in retail fuel costs through 2025.