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Created: Thu May 23 16:28:33 2002
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Institute for Alternative Futures Centre for Research on Innovation
100 North Pitt Street, Suite 235 and Competition
Alexandria, Virginia 22314 USA University of Manchester/ Oxford Road
(703) 684-5880 ! Fax (703) 684-0640 Manchester M13 9PL UK
cbezold@altfutures.com (0161) 275 5922 Fax (0161) 275 7361
www.altfutures.com Ian.Miles@man.ac.uk
http://les1.man.ac.uk/cric
ESRC Genomics Scenarios Project:
5. Genomics and Society: Four Scenarios for
2015
A Project for the
Economic & Social Research Council
ESRC Genomics Scenario Project Page 2
5. Genomics and Society: Four Scenarios for 2015
Genomics and Society: Four Scenarios
for 2015
Introduction ................................................................................. 3
Scenario 1: Genomics, Inc.......................................................... 5
Scenario 2: Broken Promises..................................................... 7
Scenario 3: Out of Our Control................................................... 9
Scenario 4: Genomics for All ................................................... 11
Highlights of Genomics Drivers in Four Scenarios of
Genomics and Society: 2015 .................................................... 12
Progress in Genomics Technologies in the Four Scenarios . 14
ESRC Genomics Scenario Project Page 3
5. Genomics and Society: Four Scenarios for 2015
Introduction
Genomics is surrounded by a high degree of uncertainty about its
applications and even more about its effects. The following four scenarios
bound that uncertainty by providing four divergent pathways to 2015.
The scenarios integrate many of the forecasts identified through the key
drivers of genomics in the previous section. Scenario 1, "Genomics, Inc.", is a
"best guess extrapolation" of key drivers shaping genomics. Scenario 2,
"Broken Promises", explores hard times for genomics. Scenario 3, "Out of
Our Control" combines both challenges and failures for some genomic
applications with success in others. Scenario 4, "Genomics for All", in the
spirit of the World Health Organization's vision of Health for All, explores
successful and visionary development of genomics.
These scenarios provide different images of 2015. Use these images to
check and to stimulate your thinking. First take the scenario as given and
consider the implications. For this project consider the implications for social
science research of the each scenario. After using the scenarios this way,
consider how you would adjust these scenarios or add others that you think
either more likely or more challenging.
For each scenario, consider what would be the most important issues for
social science research, given the conditions in the scenario.
Abstracts of the Four Genomics Scenarios:
Scenario 1, Genomics, Inc.
Genomics gains more public acceptance as better safety standards and new
applications demonstrate the value of genomics. Mergers and alliances create
a handful of "Life-Science" conglomerates that operate on a global scale.
Many individuals use genomics to identify their unique health risks and
sensitivities.
Scenario 2, Broken Promises
Genomics applications prove more difficult to develop than expected, and
several prominent genomics accidents turn public opinion against genomic
technology. Activists mobilize for stronger measures against the industry and
further reduce public demand. Liability lawsuits severely diminish the industry
and force genomic patents into the public domain.
Scenario 3, Out of Our Control
Genomic breakthroughs accelerate and the costs of research decline;
throughout the developed world, applications are delayed in approval
processes. In the meantime, developing nations use unregulated field trials to
ESRC Genomics Scenario Project Page 4
5. Genomics and Society: Four Scenarios for 2015
rapidly advance and develop genomics applications. Miracle products create
widespread public acceptance, despite genomic accidents and uncertainties.
Scenario 4, Genomics for All
Genomics is successfully implemented, with wise and participatory
management of the risks and side effects. A consensus emerges not only on
how genomics should be implemented, but also on the type of society that
genomics should serve. Genomics plays an important role in building a global
society dedicated to improving equity and sustainability.
ESRC Genomics Scenario Project Page 5
5. Genomics and Society: Four Scenarios for 2015
Scenario 1: Genomics, Inc.
As better safety standards and new applications demonstrate
the value of genomics, it gains acceptance among the public. By
2015, mergers and alliances create a handful of "Life Science"
conglomerates that operate on a global scale, and many
individuals use genomics to identify their unique health risks and
sensitivities.
At the turn of the 21st century, the field of genomics seemed to contain
unlimited promise, with the prospect of decoding the secrets locked deep
within the coils of DNA and of gaining access to the fundamental codes of life
itself. With the codes of DNA cracked, it seemed as if the only limitation on
genomics was our willingness to embrace the vast and novel opportunities of
genomic technology. By 2015, genomics has, for the most part, lived up to the
dreams expressed in its adolescence, but as more genomic technology
moved out of the lab and into the marketplace, the early enthusiasm was
tempered by a healthy dose of reality.
A Healthy Dose of Reality
The genomics industry flourished as marketable applications flowed from
experimental trials and regulatory testing. Many health and environmental
fears about genomics proved to be overblown as systematic research allowed
testable fact to replace fear of the unknown. Public demand for new genomic
medical products was high, since these new products were effective in
preventing and curing diseases. Successful genomic products for the
bioremediation of polluted land and water further enhanced support from the
public.
Start-up genomics companies found it increasingly difficult to shoulder the
financial costs of long product approval processes. These small independent
genomics companies followed their biotech counterparts in partnering, or
being acquired by, more traditional agricultural, chemical, and pharmaceutical
companies. Over time, the genomics industry became tightly integrated with
more traditional industries in an ongoing process of industry consolidation.
Industry Consolidation
By 2015, there are seven multinational conglomerates dominating the "Life
Sciences" sector globally. They use their scale and resources to spread out
operations to all corners of the globe, conducting high-value research and
technological development in developed nations, and using developing
nations as low-cost testing grounds for new products.
Pressures from the WTO and affiliated institutions facilitated the globalisation
of genomics by strengthening intellectual property protections. This was an
important factor in preserving corporate return on investment. However, it also
enabled global companies to patent products developed by modifying
indigenous biological products, often with little or no compensation to the
communities contributing to the knowledge and products.
ESRC Genomics Scenario Project Page 6
5. Genomics and Society: Four Scenarios for 2015
Globalisation of Genomics
Reform of the regulatory systems of genomics risk assessment also made a
great difference in smoothing the way for the genomics industry. Previous
regulatory indecision created an uncertain environment for development of
genomic products, and only exacerbated public fears. New research,
personal and environmental monitoring, and new computer risk models for
assessing genomic contamination reduced much of the uncertainty about the
impacts of genetically modified plants and animals. These models were able
to simulate the extent to which genetic modifications would upset the balance
of ecosystems, and allow rapid identification of potential hazards such as
super-weeds and dangerous transgenic animals.
The adoption of reformed safety standards for genomics allayed the worst
public fears and helped stabilize the product development path. Public
concerns about genomics have declined significantly. Public activism
supporting genomics is most visible with friends and families of patients
affected with diseases and their organizations seeking the acceleration of
research, approval processes, and coverage by NHS.
Public Acceptance
While the basic safety concerns of genomic applications have been
addressed, some members of the public feel a lingering suspicion about the
potential for negative long-term health impacts. Organic food remains popular
for some, while others have embraced the better flavour, appearance and
enhanced nutritional value successfully being designed into genetically
modified foods. The labelling of genomic products has expanded to keep pace
with the expanding range of GM and non-GM food products. The millions of
people who avoid GM foods provide a control group for monitoring long-term
effects.
Low-cost biochips have made it much easier to assess and monitor potential
problems arising from genetic modifications. Biosensor technology allows
food to be screened by inspectors for transgenic contamination and is
commonly used by companies to find genetic intellectual property violations.
Individuals are able to test their own sensitivities to genetically modified foods,
and many use biochips to screen out foods to which they have dangerous
sensitivities.
For health services, individual choice and control plays a critical role in patient
health. Most individuals have their DNA profile in their NHS medical record,
and are aware of their genetic predispositions for disease. High-risk patients
are encouraged to do more intensive bio-monitoring that can catch diseases
in the earliest stages. A remarkable array of treatments exists but they remain
costly, only partially covered by the NHS, and well out of reach of most poor
countries.
ESRC Genomics Scenario Project Page 7
5. Genomics and Society: Four Scenarios for 2015
Scenario 2: Broken Promises
Genomics applications prove more difficult to develop than
expected, and several prominent genomics accidents turn public
opinion against genomic technology. Activists mobilize for
stronger measures against the industry and further reduce
public demand. Liability lawsuits severely diminish the industry
and force genomic patents into the public domain.
At the turn of the 21st century, the allure of genomics was so strong that
genecrimes like Dolly the cloned sheep, and stem cell embryocide, triggered
only mild debate and some doubt about the morality of genomic research.
Since then, many have rejected the power, arrogance, and quick fixes that
come from rewriting nature's code and disturbing the souls of humans and
animals.
The European insistence on providing hazard labelling for genetically modified
foods was one of the first signs that genomic technologies could be subjected
to social pressures. Although the United States brought considerable
pressure to bear on the European Union to allow imports of GM agricultural
products, the EU decided to use its economic and regulatory solidarity to
directly confront US hegemony. With the strengthening of the Euro against
the US dollar, enacting stronger EU import standards for GM foods helped to
protect more traditional European farming practices from American
agribusiness.
Hegemony Challenged
Developing nations began to grow increasingly sceptical of genomic solutions
to their agricultural issues. Monsanto's experiments with "terminator genes"
were one bit of evidence that benefits from agricultural genomics were coming
with strings attached. The widespread corporate patenting of plant
compounds derived from indigenous cultures was a stronger sign that the
developing world was going to be on the wrong end of the genomics
revolution. In response, many developing countries began exploring in depth
non-genomic methods of increasing agricultural productivity, such as more
effective use of hybrid seeds, crop rotation, and natural pest control.
On the medical front, genomics apologists who claimed that miracle cures for
various diseases were around the corner began to have trouble explaining
why so many purported cures never seemed to make it to market. In some
cases, unravelling the genomic mysteries of life proved to be a bit more
complicated than initially expected. In other cases, the experimental drugs
turned out to have reduced efficacy, or unforeseen side effects. The torrent of
supposed genomics miracle cures turned out to be a trickle of uncertain and
expensive medications.
ESRC Genomics Scenario Project Page 8
5. Genomics and Society: Four Scenarios for 2015
Genomics Unravelling
In 2005, a series of genomics-related accidents changed many perceptions
about the real promise and perils of genomics. The first incident involved a
genetically modified plant pathogen a form of oak blight that was
accidentally released from its research lab and spread rapidly through the
surrounding countryside. Images of dying oak trees were featured prominently
in television reporting, providing an enduring symbol of the hazards of
genomic research.
The other accident of 2005 involved an experimental gene therapy for
haemophilia that had tragic consequences. The trials involved a new delivery
mechanism for the supplemental genetic information. Halfway into the trial, 40
of the subjects began to suffer severe side effects and soon perished from
complications that were the direct result of the gene therapy. The dramatic
nature of this medical disaster gave rise to an even larger whirlwind of media
coverage and contentious public hearings. The issue was further inflamed
when it was revealed that the inserted genetic material had crossed into the
sperm and egg cells of many of the trial participants. What began as a tragic
experiment had crossed the line into the modification of the human germline.
Gene therapy trials were halted, and the affected survivors were strongly
pressured not to have children.
Public Inflamed
These incidents shocked the conscience of the public. Activists increased
their efforts against genomics applications of every variety. Much like earlier
anti-globalisation protestors, the anti-genomics movement used the Internet
and other communication technologies to coordinate their activities.
Participants found the activist websites, educated themselves on the relevant
issues, and used online discussion forums to connect with like-minded
activists. By working with allied NGOs, activists brought considerable
pressure to bear on the genomics industry.
Students on college campuses began demanding colleges divest themselves
from companies pursuing and funding genomic research. Activists blockaded
the entrances to genomic research facilities. Mass boycotts were organized
against GM products, exploiting GM labelling laws for the purposes of political
action. A stringent interpretation of the precautionary principle became a
means to prevent these disasters from happening again.
With genomics experiments under greater public scrutiny, other unsuccessful
experiments with less drastic side effects began to surface. In several
countries, lawsuits were brought against genomics companies alleging that
they had not performed adequate risk assessment on the technologies and
failed to effectively communicate the risks to the public. Massive punitive
damage awards against US genomics companies put much of the genomics
industry on the verge of bankruptcy. With minimal public demand for genomic
products, the companies had little ability to pay large cash settlements. In a
comprehensive settlement in 2014, many genomics patents on genes and
organisms were stripped from companies and placed into the public domain
for the benefit of all researchers.
ESRC Genomics Scenario Project Page 9
5. Genomics and Society: Four Scenarios for 2015
Scenario 3: Out of Our Control
Genomic breakthroughs accelerate and costs of research
decline while applications are delayed in approval processes.
Developing nations use unregulated field trials to rapidly
advance and develop genomics applications. In health care,
several real breakthrough products create widespread public
acceptance, despite genomic accidents and uncertainties.
In the first few years of the 21st century, proponents and opponents of
genomic technologies retreated into their fixed rhetorical positions of progress
versus safety on issues ranging from therapeutic cloning to transgenic
organisms. This stalemate led regulators to take a cautious approach to
experimental applications of the technology. Approval processes stretched
from months to years.
In the meantime, the technological infrastructure of genomics was
accelerating rapidly. Computing power was following Moore's law and
doubling every 18 months, making each new generation of bioinfomatic
computers more powerful and less expensive. Gene-chips began a similar
process of accelerating in power while simultaneously dropping in costs. The
rapid automation of testing, sequencing, and computer analysis allowed
researchers to swiftly piece together the complex patterns of gene expression
in humans, plants and animals.
Rapid Development
Faced with rapid population growth, moderate economic growth, and declining
natural resources, developing nations eyed developments in genomics with a
mixture of hope and envy. Several developing nations especially China and
Brazil began crash programs to create national genomics industries. The
declining costs of research made these initiatives financially feasible, allowing
new players to outfit their research facilities with leading edge equipment.
To tap into the expertise of western genomics companies, these national
initiatives used lax regulatory and testing requirements to attract mainstream
companies. Most genomics companies followed their competitors into testing
in these countries. Secret agreements forged between western corporations
and national genomics initiatives gave China, Brazil and several developing
nations direct access to advanced genomic technology and expertise, while
allowing genomics companies to quietly refine their innovations with minimal
restrictions.
In many cases, these tests were conducted successfully and without incident.
Not every trial went as well in several areas GM plants began to dominate
their ecosystems, GM animals on the loose threatened several species with
extinction, and participants in germline gene therapy experiments were
passing their genetic fixes onto their children.
ESRC Genomics Scenario Project Page 10
5. Genomics and Society: Four Scenarios for 2015
Times of Trial
While international awareness of the full magnitude of these testing programs
was slow to build, by 2010 the EU and US began pressuring developing
countries to rein in rogue research programs. They pushed for the adoption of
international standards defining the limits of acceptable genomic research.
Their diplomatic efforts were decisively rebuffed by China, which had the
economic clout in 2010 to resist international pressure. China's intransigence
led other developing nations to reject the international agreements governing
genomics, shattering the prospects for a global system of genomic regulation
and control.
Years of regulatory gridlock in the US and Europe had allowed China and
other developing nations to take the lead in developing real-world genomics
applications. With dim prospects for further global agreements, developed
nations moved rapidly to streamline their safety testing processes,
accelerating the introduction of many sought after but still controversial forms
of gene therapy.
With the genomics genie out of the bottle, the public is beginning to accept a
world where genomics technologies are developing as fast as technology
allows. Environmental changes due to GM plants and animals are a matter of
some concern, and there remain many ethical concerns about the wanton
manipulation of animal and human genetic codes - and the new life forms
produced.
Genomics Uncorked
The critics of genomics say that society has traded away both its conscience
and the balance of nature for the benefits from a range of enhanced foods
and medical cures. Stem cell therapies are now available to treat diabetes,
Parkinson's, and Alzheimer's a welcome development for aging populations
in industrialized countries. A wide variety of gene defects are now treatable
with relatively inexpensive gene therapies. These tangible benefits have made
people more accepting of the risks that go with advanced genomic research.
The genomics industry is highly competitive and flexible, with innovative firms
of all sizes and from all corners of the globe actively competing to further
develop and disseminate genomics technologies. Simultaneously, black-
market genomic technologies have emerged. It's rumoured that confidential
clinics already perform prenatal genetic enhancements for wealthy clients.
And bio-weapons based on genetically modified infectious agents have
become the favourite of some terrorist and cult groups.
In many cases, more genomics technology may prove to be the solution to
existing GM-induced problems. In one experiment, biological diversity was
restored to a GM-plant monoculture infestation by artificially introducing new
genetic variations into the affected plants. By the end of the experiment, the
field showed more genetic diversity than in its "natural" state. Now that
genomics technologies have been unleashed to reach their full potential, there
is no going back to the old mechanical mindset of regulation and control.
ESRC Genomics Scenario Project Page 11
5. Genomics and Society: Four Scenarios for 2015
Scenario 4: Genomics for All
Genomics is successfully implemented, with wise and
participatory management of the risks and side effects. A larger
consensus emerges, not only on how genomics should be
implemented, but also on the type of society that genomics
should serve. Genomics plays an important role in building a
global society dedicated to improving equity and sustainability.
In the first few years of the twenty-first century, rapid breakthroughs in
embryonic cloning and enhanced in-vitro fertilization (IVF) treatments created
ethical conundrums that were explored by evolving media coverage. These
discussions fed into other ongoing debates about the proper role for the
precautionary principle in the regulation of potentially dangerous technologies.
Scientists and regulators worked to develop standards of safety and
guidelines that defined the scope and limits of safety testing. As these
standards were crafted, it became clear that the public needed an explicit role
in assessing the new technology and in setting permissible limits. Innovative
experiments in developing informed public input were conducted, including
deliberative polling, electronic town meetings, and citizen juries. These
processes allowed groups of citizens to substantively engage these issues,
and give knowledgeable answers reflecting their preferred vision for genomic
technologies.
Successes in citizen participation were reinforced by a subculture of citizens
that placed greater emphasis on sustainable lifestyles, the win-win resolution
of conflicts, and greater tolerance for alternative value-systems. These
"cultural creatives" (90 million in Europe in 2000), steered away from more
traditional orientations towards family values, and more modern orientations
towards material success. Instead, their values focused on enhancing quality
of life, personal growth, and giving back to the community. Even though
these "cultural creatives" were a significant percentage in the population, they
often failed to recognize their distinctive values and lacked a cohesive group
identity.
Values Defined
In 2005, a radical Islamic terrorist group used a genetically modified bio-
weapon to attack the European Parliament in Brussels. The attack targeted
the gathering for a final vote on an agreement that would bring tighter
integration between Israel and the European Union. The toxic agent,
engineered to cause nerve damage by degrading the myelin sheath of
neurons, was delivered though aerosol sprays hidden in several areas of the
facility. This stab at the heart of the European Union caused close to 900
deaths and over 1,500 casualties; all suffered permanent neurological
damage from exposure to the toxic compounds. The graphic horror of the
attack triggered international revulsion, and brought entirely new leaders into
the top positions of the European Union.
ESRC Genomics Scenario Project Page 12
5. Genomics and Society: Four Scenarios for 2015
In the aftermath, a new international bio-weapon convention placed strict
limits on the development of offensive, defensive, and non-lethal bio-
weapons. The convention was enhanced with provisions for international
inspections of commercial genomic research facilities, and restrictions on
lines of research with potential dual-use applications as bio-weapons.
The horror of the Brussels attack crystallized public opinion, and brought to
the surface public yearnings for a more sustainable and equitable world that
could work for all. These deep social impulses were channelled into the new
forms of electronically enhanced democracy, giving citizens concerned with
the common good a stronger voice in policy discussions. Global disparities in
basic health and well-being came to be identified as a root cause of terrorism,
global instability, and environmental degradation. New forms of political
participation allowed citizens to play a critical role in steering the direction of
society, demanding more proactive remedies for social and economic
problems. "Cultural Creatives" came together as a social force, realizing that
millions of others shared their core social values.
Public Engaged
The genomics industry was one of the first to be transformed by participatory
decision-making processes. The public began to look unfavourably on efforts
to develop expensive genomic medical treatments and high-margin genomic
food products. Instead, genomics companies were urged by the public and
vocal, effective advocacy groups to devote research resources towards
developing cost-effective nutritional enhancement of foods, bio-engineering
organisms for environmental remediation, and diverse strains of locally
adapted crops to boost productivity and biodiversity. Genomics companies
were attentive to this shift in the public mood, and reoriented research lines to
explore new genomic products that provided more equity and sustainability-
enhancing opportunities.
Equity Embraced
Reform of the intellectual property system curbed the use of broad and non-
specific gene sequence patents. New stricter standards for genomics patents
limited them to specific implementations of genetic expression, rather than
speculative patents based on marginal research. To create an equitable
international system of intellectual property rights, exemptions on patents for
genomic and health products were extended to countries facing food
shortages and medical crises. The biological knowledge of indigenous
peoples is protected by tribal trusts that licensed access to traditional
biological knowledge, allowing indigenous peoples to share the wealth
gleaned from their cultural heritage.
By 2013, the new international agenda for equity, sustainability, and genomic
justice was codified in a United Nations Declarations of Genomic Rights and
Responsibilities. This broad statement of intent established global standards
for animal rights, ethical boundaries for genomic research, criteria for genetic
discrimination, principles of environmental sustainability, and goals for social
equity. The UN, NGOs, and several countries began to craft policy incentives
ESRC Genomics Scenario Project Page 13
5. Genomics and Society: Four Scenarios for 2015
to steer nations and the global economy towards a preferred future designed
to alleviate the disparities in the global sociopolitical system.
5. Genomics and Society: Four Scenarios for 2015
Highlights of Genomics Drivers in Four Scenarios of Genomics and Society: 2015
Genomics, Inc. Broken Promises Out of Our Control Genomics for All
Business Consolidation of ag, Decline and fall of Range of competitors, Broad spectrum of
Forces pharma, and genomic applications in with Chinese and Indian companies, large and small;
chemical companies industry as failures companies playing operate with greater
into 7 global life emerge significant roles collaboration with competitors
science corporations; and regulators; more clarity
successful small on multiple bottom lines
players absorbed
Demand Cautious acceptance Increasing public High demand for Strong demand, focusing on
of GM foods; high rejection of GM products breakthroughs, and low products that enhance equity
demand for health cost advances and sustainability
applications
Environment Modest decline, with Generally stable, but Major threats, especially Low level of genomic caused
localized localized contamination in China and India, from degradation; Improvements
improvements from from GM organisms widespread GM from bioremediation
bioremediation deployment
Geopolitics China and India Developing world China and India become Global and equity focus
become more increasingly pursues major players driven by consumers; Post
important; Global non-genomic solutions crisis integration of genomics
corporations remain regulation
US and Euro
dominated
Governance Strong intellectual Increasing public Diminished governance Equitable intellectual property
of property protections; oversight, right to as rogue researchers reform; indigenous
Knowledge research results genomic data shifted to lead the agenda knowledge better protected;
readily available public domain scientists reconstitute their
trust
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5. Genomics and Society: Four Scenarios for 2015
Genomics, Inc. Broken Promises Out of Our Control Genomics for All
Risk More objective risk Risks perceived to Risks prove significant Advanced citizen
models with outweigh benefits; but widely distributed; assessment of risk;
increasing use of precautionary principle high benefits balanced prudent use of the
education and embraced with risks Precautionary Principle,
individual with strong commitment to
preferences; use genomics to make
supported by improvements in areas of
personal genomic greatest need
data
Social Increasing comfort Fear and anger Mixed, widespread Mixed, but active citizen
Attitudes with genomics towards genomics; support for successful input in genomics
active opposition, cures, criticism of decision-making leads to
limited public support mistakes wide support for genomics
applied to enhance equity
and sustainability
Social Much of the public Internet enabled Sporadically effective Enhanced infrastructure of
Mobilization is disengaged; activists "swarm" groups, working to civil society, more effective
environmental effectively in opposition meet the social large NGOs, general
opponents and to genomics challenges posed by public want genomics
disease group radical genomic done right; support global
supporters are change monitoring
major advocacy
groups
Functionality Works well with Several dramatic Dramatic successes, Wide range of applications
of Genomics minor side effects accidental failures dramatic failures; that support broader
periodic terrorist uses values with minimal side
effects; terrorist use
diminished
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5. Genomics and Society: Four Scenarios for 2015
Progress in Genomics Technologies in the Four Scenarios
Genomics, Inc. Broken Promises Out of Our Control Genomics for All
Health Care * Widespread * Active biosensor * Active biosensor * Biosensors support
Biomonitor biosensor use use use sustainability & equity
* Individual genetic * Genetic profiles * Genetic profiles * Genetic profiles also
Genetic profiles used for available, but not used support equity
profiles predictive med effectively used
* Focused tailored drug
* Tailored drug Rx * Tailored drug RX, * Many tailored development
Tailored but few new drugs
med Rx * Genomic based tailored drugs * Medical genomics
cures i.e. * Many advanced therapies; focused on addressing
Genomics Parkinson's & * Only 2 gene aggressive use diseases of global
based some cancers therapies on * "Designer babies" importance infectious,
cures * "Designer market; most & manipulations heart disease, diabetes,
babies" available genetic based available cancer
drugs still in R&D
Agriculture & Food * Many GM plants, * A few GM plants * Well developed * GM plants, animals &
animals & fish & animals; lack GM industry with fish cautiously used with
with range of of public many benefits for focus on sustainability &
beneficial acceptance developing world equity especially in
properties limits R&D developing world
Other Uses * Active * Use traditional * Delayed development with * Active development &
Environment biomonitoring & methods some use use of biomonitoring &
bioremediation bioremediation
Biomaterials * Fairly common
* Widespread * Common * Widespread
Biofuels * Low use
* Low use * Little use * Aggressive development
Biomanufacturing * Lack of interest,
* Slowly being * Not economical; investment & reg. support * Actively pursued with
adopted low use early commercial adoption
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