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Labor Day 2008: Recession or not, a downturn for working families. A…
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Language: english
Created: Wed Aug 27 12:27:31 2008
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Labor Day 2008: Recession or not, a
downturn for working families.
A briefing on jobs, wages and healthcare
Sylvia Allegretto, PhD
Arindrajit Dube, PhD
Dave Graham-Squire
Ken Jacobs
August 27, 2008
Center for Labor Research and Education
1
Unemployment rates signal economic woes
8.0% California
7.3%
Unemployment rate
6.0%
5.7%
4.0% United States
2.0%
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
Source : Current Population Survey
· Number of unemployed in U.S. reaches 8.8 million--up by 1.6
million in 2008.
· California's unemployment rate is at a 12 year high.
2
Recessionary pattern of job growth
4.0 600
US job growth 500
3.0 (left axis)
400
CA job growth (thousands)
U.S. job growth (millions)
2.0 300
CA job growth
(right axis) 200
1.0
100
0.0
0
-1.0 -100
-200
-2.0
-300
-3.0 -400
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008*
Source: Current Employment Statistics.* 2008 up to July.
· U.S. economy shed jobs every month in 2008--for a loss of
463,000 jobs (private sector down 651,000 jobs)
· California lost 54,000 jobs this year (private sector down 64,200).
3
U.S. and California employment growth by industry:
December 2007 to July 2008
Employment growth UNITED STATES CALIFORNIA
Total -0.34% -463,000 -0.36% -54,200
Total private -0.56% -651,000 -0.51% -64,200
By Industry:
Natural resources and mining 5.28% 39,000 5.10% 1,300
Construction -3.88% -290,000 -4.99% -42,700
Manufacturing -1.97% -271,000 -1.12% -16,300
Trade, transportation, and utilities -0.98% -261,000 -0.31% -8,900
Information -1.16% -35,000 -2.13% -10,100
Financial activities -0.47% -39,000 -1.81% -16,100
Professional and business services -1.17% -212,000 -0.01% -200
Education and health services 1.86% 346,000 1.71% 28,800
Leisure and hospitality 0.38% 52,000 0.14% 2,200
Other services 0.36% 20,000 -0.42% -2,200
Government 0.84% 188,000 0.40% 10,000
4
Source: Current Employment Statistics
Average hourly wages suffer as economy stalls
$25
$24
California
$23
Average real wages
$22
$21
$20
$19 United States
$18
$17
$16
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08*
Source: Current Population Survey. *2008 up to June.
· Wage growth stagnant post-2001 recession compared to
wage gains during the tight labor market in the latter 1990s.
5
Persistent inequality worsens
Real hourly w ages for high, C hang e in r eal ho ur ly wag es since 19 9 5
m iddle and low earners in U.S. f o r hig h, mid d le and lo w ear ner s in U .S.
20%
$4 0
15%
Top third
$3 0
10 %
$2 0
5%
B o t t o m T hird
Middle third
M iddle T hird
$10
0% T o p T hird
Bottom third
- 5%
$0
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08*
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08*
Source: Current Populat ion Survey. *2008 up t o June. Source: Current Population Survey. *2008 up to June.
6
Further divergence between productivity and wage growth
40%
Productivity
30%
20%
Real hourly compensation
10%
Real hourly wage
0%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008*
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. * 2008 up to June.
· An upsurge in productivity translated into a
disproportionally small gain in compensation and
stagnant wages.
7
Profit share remains healthy
Profits as % of national income 16.0%
14.1%
14.0%
12.0% 12.8%
10.0%
8.0% 8.5%
6.0%
*
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Source: NIPA data from t he Bureau of Economic Analysis. * 2008 represents first quarther result s.
· Corporate profits, as a percent of national income, have
increased and remained high since the 2001 recession.
8
The share of non-elderly US adults with job-based health
coverage remained stable in 2007, still well below 2000
levels.
· The share of non-elderly US Health Coverage for US Adults (19-64)
adults with job-based coverage
100%
was 64.4% in 2007, 64.3% in
2006 and 69.2% in 2000. 90%
80%
· The share of uninsured non- 70%
elderly US adults was 19.7% in 60%
2007, compared to 20.3% in
2005 and 17.5% in 2000. 50%
40%
· The share of non-elderly adults 30%
with public coverage was 10.4% 20%
in 2007, 10.0% in 2006 and
10%
7.9% in 2000.
0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Job-based Public Direct Purchase Military Uninsured
9
Source: 2000 - 2007 Current Population Survey, March Supplement
Increase in job-based health coverage for CA adults in 2007,
still well below national and 2000 levels; uninsurance rate
remains high.
· The share of non-elderly CA adults
with job-based coverage was 58.8% in Health Coverage for CA Adults (19-64)
2007, compared to 64.4% nationally.
100%
57.1% of CA adults were covered
through an employer in 2006 and 90%
61.8% in 2000. 80%
70%
· The share of uninsured non-elderly CA
adults was 24.0% in 2007, compared 60%
to 19.7% in US as a whole. 23.9% of 50%
CA adults were uninsured in 2005 and 40%
22.0% in 2000.
30%
· The share of non-elderly CA adults 20%
with public coverage was 10.1% in 10%
2007, 10.7% in 2006 and 9.3% in 0%
2000. 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Job-based Public Direct Purchase Military Uninsured
10
Source: 2000 - 2007 Current Population Survey, March Supplement
Uninsurance for US children fell due to increases in public
program enrollment, despite continued decline in
dependent health coverage.
· 11.3% of US children 18 and under Health Coverage for US Children (0-18)
were uninsured in 2007 compared to
12.1% in 2006 and 12% in 2000. 100%
90%
· 27.9% of children were on public 80%
coverage in 2007, compared to 26.8% 70%
in 2006 and 20.2% in 2000.
60%
50%
· 59.3% of children had coverage
through a parents job in 2007 40%
compared to 59.6% in 2006 and 30%
66.0% in 2000. 20%
10%
0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Job based Direct purchase Military Uninsured Public
11
Source: 2000 - 2007 Current Population Survey, March Supplement
The share of California children without health
coverage falls to U.S. average.
Health Coverage for CA Children (0-18)
· 11.3% of CA children 18 and under
were uninsured in 2007, the same as 100%
the national level. 13.3% were
90%
uninsured in 2006 and 15.8% in 2000.
80%
· 31.8% of CA children were on public 70%
coverage in 2007, compared to 30.2% 60%
in 2006 and 24.3% in 2000.
50%
40%
· 53.7% of CA children had coverage
through a parents job, compared to 30%
59.3% nationally. 51.8% of CA children 20%
had coverage through a parents job in
in 2006 and 57.5% in 2000. 10%
0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Job-based Direct Purchase Uninsured Military Public
12
Source: 2000 - 2007 Current Population Survey, March Supplement
Rise in unemployment in 2008 expected to increase
share of uninsured and demand for public coverage.
· The Kaiser Commission on Medicaid and the Uninsured found
that nationally, a 1 percentage point rise in unemployment
results in 1.1 million more uninsured and 1 million more
enrollees in Medicaid and SCHIP.
· Applying the same rates to California, a 1 percentage point
increase in unemployment would result in 150,000 more
uninsured and 130,000 more enrollees in public programs.
· The U.S. unemployment rate is up 0.7 percentage points in
2008; the California unemployment rate is up 1.4 percentage
points.
Source: Stan Dorn, Bowen Garrett, John Holahan, and Aimee Williams The Urban Institute, "Medicaid, SCHIP and Economic Downturn:
Policy Challenges and Policy Responses," prepared for Kaiser Commission on Medicaid and the Uninsured, April 2008.
13
Note: U.S. uninsured=46.75 million; CA uninsured=6.61 million. U.S. enrollees in public programs = 36.29 million; CA=6.09 million.
Union density shows small improvements
25%
20% California 19%
20%
15%
17%
United States 14%
10%
5%
0%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 *2008
Source: Current Population Survey. * 2008 up to June.
· Too early to tell if slight uptick in U.S. union
density is a reversal of trend.
· California union density stable since mid-90's.
14
Private sector union density rises, but remains low:
8.6% in US and 10.8% in California
15.0%
12.3% California
12.0% 10.8%
11.5%
9.0%
United States 8.6%
6.0%
3.0%
0.0%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 *2008
Source: Current Population Survey. *2008 is up to June
· Widening gap between the United States and California.
15
Public sector union density up slightly in
the U.S. and California
80.0%
California 60.6%
59.9%
60.0%
40.0%
43.7%
41.1%
United States
20.0%
0.0%
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 8*
19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 2 00
Source: Current Population Survey. 2008* is up to June
16
Healthcare analysis was produced
with support from:
17