Energy Modeling Forum Workshop on…

                       Energy Modeling Forum
              Workshop on Critical Issues in Climate Change
                                   Snowmass, Colorado
                                  July 25 ­ August 3, 2006
                                           Agenda

Monday, July 24th
6:00- 8:00 PM Registration and Informal Reception for Attendees and All Guests


Tuesday, July 25
 7:30AM Continental Breakfast

                                  WORKSHOP OPENING
  8:45 Welcome · John Weyant

    CLIMATE CHANGE, SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, AND HUMAN HEALTH

Sustainable Development and the Millennium Development Goals
 9:00 Session Overview · Kristie L. Ebi, Exponent Health Group
10:00   Break
10:30   Demographic transition · Amy Coen, Population Action International
12:15AM Lunch
 1:30   Water, health, and development · Sari Kovats, London School of Hygiene
 2:15   Agriculture and the MDGs · Mark Rosegrant, IFPRI
 3:00   Break
 3:30   Urbanization and the built environment · Tom Wilbanks, ORNL
 4:15   Ecosystems, health, and development · Tony Janetos, Heinz Center
 5:00   Adjourn

Wednesday, July 26
 7:30AM Continental Breakfast
Sustainable Development and the Millennium Development Goals (continued)
 8:30   Energy, climate change, and health · Kirk Smith, University of California Berkeley
 9:15   Health and development in scenarios · Colin Butler, Australian National University
10:00   Break
10:30   Discussion
11:30    Speaking of scenarios · Hugh Pitcher, PNNL
12:15 PM Lunch
Overview of Institutional Activities and Roles in Sustainable Development
 1:30    World Bank · Ian Noble, The World Bank
 2:00    UNDP · Bo Lim, National Communications Support Program
 2:30    WHO · Kristie L. Ebi (for Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum)
 2:45    Break
 3:15    Experiences from the field · Joel Smith, Stratus Consulting, Inc.
 4:30    Development of early warning systems for vector-borne diseases · Stephen Connor,
         IRI
 5:15    Adjourn/Informal Discussion


Thursday, July 27
7:30AM   Continental Breakfast
Overview of Institutional Activities and Roles in Sustainable Development (cont.)
 8:30    Incorporating sustainable development in IAM · Gerry Stokes, PNNL
 9:15    Weakest link analysis · Richard Tol, Economic and Social Research Institute
 10:00 Break
10:30    Legal instrument for adaptation · Ian Burton, Environment Canada
11:15    Next Steps
12:00PM Lunch
Climate Change Risk Management and Decision Making Under Uncertainty (organized by H
         Kheshgi)
 1:00    Introduction · Haroon Kheshgi, ExxonMobil Research and Engineering
 1:20    Design of Climate Policy to Manage Risk · Rich Richels, EPRI
 2:00    Discussion
 2:30    Break
 3:00    Scenarios and DUU · Rob Lempert, Rand Corporation
 4:00    Future IPCC Work-plan on Scenarios · Haroon Kheshgi, ExxonMobil
 5:00    Adjourn
 6:30 Colorado BBQ at the Rodeo Grounds for Attendees and All Guests


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Friday, July 28
 7:30AM Continental Breakfast
Use of Scenarios in Risk Management: Issues/discussion Panel
 8:30   Use of Scenarios in Risk Management--SAP 2.1 and the USTP · Leon Clarke, Joint
        Global Change Research Institute
 9:10   Use of Scenarios in Risk Management--IPCC WG3 CH 3 · Brian Fisher, ABARE
 9:30   Discussion
10:00    Break
10:30   Technology change · Jae Edmonds, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
11:20   DUU and Energy Investment Risk · Will Blyth, Chatham House
12:00PM Lunch
 1:00   MDGs in AIM · Mikiko Kainuma, NIES
 1:50   Governance and CD Opportunities · David Montgomery, Charles River Associates, Inc.
 2:40   CD and international policy · Brian Fisher, ABAR
 3:30   Break
 4:00   Panel: Do IAMs do risk Management? Institutions and Risk Management
             R&D Portfolios (Initial comment: John Weyant)
             Technology Deployment Portfolios (Initial comment: Mikiko Kainuma)
             Sequential Decision Making (Initial comment: Lowell Wood)
             Institutional Capacity (Initial comment: Kristie Ebi)
             Governance (Initial comment: Brian Flannery)

 5:00   Adjourn and Informal Discussion


Sunday, July 30
Small Group Discussions
 7:00PM Abrupt & Catastropic Climate Chang Workshop Opening Remarks and Reception



WORKSHOP ON ABRUPT AND CATASTROPHIC CLIMATE CHANGE
    Organizers: William Nordhaus (Yale) and John Weyant (Stanford)
    Sponsored by the NBER-Yale Program on International Environmental Economics

Monday July 31

 7:30AM Continental Breakfast
 Chair of morning session: William Nordhaus
 9:00   Welcome · John Weyant and Bill Nordhaus

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10:45    Break

11:00    Ecology · Dorothy Peteet (Goddard Institute for Space Studies)

11:45    Statistical issues · Andy Solow (Woods Hole)

12:30    Lunch

Chair of afternoon session: Nebojsa Nakicenovic

 1:30    Economics · Bob Litan (Brookings) ­ insurance issues
         · Bill Nordhaus (Yale) ­ the economics of hurricanes for the US

 3:00    Adjourn/ Informal Discussion

 7:00    Workshop Dinner and Remarks by Professor William Norhaus

Tuesday August 1

7:30AM   Continental Breakfast

Chair of morning session: John Weyant

 9:00    GeoEconomics · Klaus Keller (PSU) ­ modeling the interaction of ACC and the economy

 9:45    Modeling the Sudden Stop in Policy using existing models
          · Detlef van Vuuren (RIVM) ­ Lessons from the RIVM model
          · Jae Edmonds (JGCRI) ­ Lessons from the JGCRI MiniCam model
          · Nebojsa Nakicenovic (IIASA) ­ Lessons from the IIASA model
          · Discussion

11:15    Break

11:30    Technology: Geoengineering · Lowell Wood (LLNL)

12:15PM Lunch

 1:15    Abrupt Climate Change and Agriculture · John Reilly (US Department of Energy)

Chair of afternoon session: Robert Litan

 2:00    Legal issues and international agreements
          · Scott Barrett (Johns Hopkins) ­ prospects for international agreements

 2:45    Final panel: Where do we go from here?
          · Panel (Weyant, Alley, Barrett, Nakicenovic, Nordhaus)
          · Discussion

 3:00 Adjourn/ Informal Discussion

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Wednesday, August 2
 7:30AM Continental Breakfast
Bio-technologies: Land, Production, Transformation, and Economics
 8:30    Session Overview and Goals · John Houghton, U.S. Department of Energy
Land Resources
 8:45    Biomass energy and global competition for land · John Reilly, MIT
 9:30 Envisioning Biomass-Intensive Energy Futures: Exploring the Range of Possibility for
        Feedback Supply and Forecasting Mature Processing Technology · John McBride,
        Dartmouth College
10:15    Break
10:30    Integrated assessment of Biomass 2 · Detlef van Vuuren, Netherlands Environment
         Assessment Agency
11:45    Integrated Assessment of Biomass · Steve Smith, Joint Global Climate Research
         Institute, University of Maryland
12:15PM Lunch
 1:00    Economic competitiveness and environmental impacts of dedicated energy crops in
         the US · Daniel de la Torre, University of Tennessee
 1:45    Terrestrial ecosystem, climatic conditions and biomass production · Günther Fischer,
         IIASA (or other IIASA person)
 2:30    Break
 3:00    Reflections on the USDA/DOE Report on the Technical Feasibility of a Billion-ton
         Annual Supply of Biofeedstocks · Robin Graham, Oak Ridge National Laboratory
 3:45    Genomics-Enabled Genetic Improvement for Biofuels · Kay Simmons, US Department
         of Agriculture
 4:30    Discussion panel

            ·    Impediments to full adoption

            ·    Research agenda
            ·    Other topics
 5:00    Adjourn
 6:30    Closing Dinner for Attendees and All Guests




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Thursday, August 3
 7:30AM Continental Breakfast
Economics of Conversion
 8:30   Modeling Biofuels at the US Energy Information Administration · Michael Schaal,
        Energy Information Administration
 9:00   Biomass Conversion Science · Michael Himmel, National Renewable Energy Laboratory
 9:45   Process Design and Economic Analyses for Biomass Conversion · Andy Aden,
        National Renewable Energy Laboratory
10:30   Break
11:00   Are Biofuels Truly Sustainable? Some Food, Soil Health and Greenhouse Gas Issues
        · Bruce Dale, Michigan State University
12:15PM Lunch
 1:30   Life cycle assessment and greenhouse gases · Michael Wang, Argonne National
        Laboratory
 2:15   Cross Model Comparison of Biomass in Stabilization · Steve Rose, US Environmental
        Protection Agency
 2:45   Break
 3:15   Discussion · John Houghton, Chair

          ·     Industry View ­ Haroon Kheshgi, ExxonMobil

          ·     Impediments to full adoption
          ·     Other topics
 5:00 Adjourn & Informal Discussion




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