Tags: barack obama, democratic counterparts, democratic race, diageo, fluidity, fred thompson, frontrunners, gop candidates, hillary clinton, horserace, john mccain, mike huckabee, mitt romney, point margin, registered voters, republican rivals, rudy giuliani, sen john mccain, statistical dead heat, tight one,
NATIONAL RACE OPENS UP FOR GOP PRIMARY CANDIDATES,
TIGHTENS FOR DEMOCRATIC COUNTERPARTS
McCain Gains Decisive Lead over Republican Rivals,
Obama and Clinton Deadlocked in Democratic Race
NEW YORK, January 16, 2008 Following the contests in Iowa and New Hampshire, the
national Democratic and Republican primary races are beginning to take clearer shape. In the
GOP primary horserace, Sen. John McCain has catapulted to first place (32%), a 22 point leap
from the 10% he garnered last month, and a full 15 points ahead of his nearest rival Mike
Huckabee (17%). As for the other GOP candidates, Mitt Romney has ticked up a statistically
insignificant 2 points to 15%, while Rudy Giuliani has dropped 9 points since last month to 12%,
and Fred Thompson has moved down 4 points to 7%.
When asked about each candidate's likelihood of eventually clinching the nomination, 82% of
Republican primary voters think that it is likely that McCain will be the party's nominee, as
opposed to 56% who say the same for Huckabee and 53% for Mitt Romney. Despite McCain's
strong position in the primary ballot, there is the potential for change in the race a large majority
of Republican primary voters (59%) says it's possible they may change their minds between now
and their state's primary.
The Diageo/Hotline Poll of 803 registered voters conducted by FD from January 10-12, 2008
shows that the Democratic race is a tight one between frontrunners Sen. Hillary Clinton and Sen.
Barack Obama, who are in a statistical dead heat for first place (Clinton, 38%; Obama, 35%).
Clinton's lead over Obama is tighter than it was in December, with her 5 point margin last month
(35% to 30%) shrinking to 3 points this month. Democratic primary voters were asked the
likelihood of each candidate winning the nomination, with the result that 89% say that Clinton is
likely to be their party's nominee, compared to 82% saying the same for Obama.
There appears to be less fluidity in the Democratic race than in the Republican race, as a clear
majority of Democratic primary voters (56%) say they will definitely support their chosen
candidate. Moreover, supporters for the top two candidates are even firmer in their convictions:
61% of Clinton's supporters and 59% of Obama's supporters say their support is definite.
Table 1: Primary Vote among Table 2: Primary Vote among
Democratic Primary Voters Republican Primary Voters
(n=380) (n=266)
Total Total
Hillary Clinton 38% John McCain 32%
Barack Obama 35% Mike Huckabee 17%
John Edwards 13% Mitt Romney 15%
Dennis Kucinich 2% Rudy Giuliani 12%
Mike Gravel * Fred Thompson 7%
Ron Paul 4%
Duncan Hunter 2%
"With the nomination races for both Democrats and Republicans becoming clearer, all signs point
to February 5th as the day that may very well make or break the candidates still in the race," said
Hotline Editor-in-Chief, Amy Walter. "John McCain needs to continue to perform well in the early
primary contests and maintain his current frontrunner status. As for the Democrats, with both
leading candidates well-liked and popular among the party faithful, Democratic primary voters
must ultimately decide which of the two, Clinton or Obama, best fits their image of the ideal
Democratic nominee."
Presidential Traits
This month's Diageo/Hotline poll also asked voters which presidential traits are most important for
a candidate to have. Overall, priorities remain stable since last month's poll Democratic primary
voters continue to say that being able to "lead the country in a new direction" is the most
important trait (December, 50%; January, 50%). For Republican primary voters, the most
important trait for a presidential candidate remains having "the experience necessary to be
President" (December, 36%; January, 39%).
Sen. John McCain has gained considerable ground since last month on all key presidential traits.
Conversely, the former Mayor of New York, Rudy Giuliani, has fallen sharply on all key traits.
McCain has soared 40 points from last month's poll to 46% of Republican primary voters saying
he "has the best chance of winning the general election," compared to Giuliani at 17% on the
same trait (a 24 point drop from December). Similarly, for the trait "has the experience necessary
to be President," McCain comes in at 47% (a 25 point jump from December), with Giuliani at 18%
(a 12% drop from December).
Among Democratic primary voters, Clinton leads on two key presidential traits: "has the best
chance of winning the general election" (Clinton, 51%; Obama, 32%) and "has the experience
necessary to be President" (Clinton, 62%; Obama, 17%). Obama has made major strides on
voters' association with him on all key traits since last month, most significantly on "is
inspirational" at 51% (a 13 point gain) and "has the best chance of winning the general election"
at 32% (a 10 point gain). Also, Obama has taken a clear lead on the "change candidate"
association: he jumped 7 points from December on "will lead the country in a new direction" (from
37% to 44%). That said, Clinton's standing has solidified on having the "experience necessary to
be President," jumping 10 points from last month (from 52% to 62%).
General Election
In terms of the eventual victor of the general election, Democrats are viewed to be in a better
position than Republicans. Registered voters say they would vote for a Democratic candidate
over a Republican candidate 48% to 33% in a generic ballot question. In addition, a substantial
majority expects that the 2008 presidential election will be won by the Democratic candidate
(Democratic candidate, 62%; Republican candidate, 23%). Underscoring this perception, in head-
to-head match-ups the Democratic candidates come out on top virtually across the board, with
Obama enjoying the biggest margins over the top Republicans. By contrast, Clinton has the
smallest margins of victory against GOP contenders. McCain is seen as the only Republican
candidate that would either tie or beat outright his Democratic counterparts.
Table 3: Margin of Victory among Top Presidential Candidates
(n=407; n=396)
John McCain Mike Huckabee Mitt Romney Rudy Giuliani
Hillary Clinton (R) +3% (D) +9% (D) +11% (D) +10%
Barack Obama (D) +1% (D) +23% (D) +30% (D) +22%
John Edwards (R) +8% (D) +15% (D) +16% (D) +20%
To obtain complete poll results please see www.diageohotlinepoll.com.
To schedule an interview with Ed Reilly, contact Smriti Sateesh at (212) 850-5600 or
Smriti.Sateesh@fd.com.
Methodology: The Diageo/Hotline Poll was conducted by telephone from January 10 through
January 12, 2008, among a random, representative sample of 803 registered voters, age 18 and
older (margin of error +/- 3.5%). The sample included a sub-sample of both 380 Democratic
primary voters (margin of error +/- 5.0%) and 266 Republican primary voters (margin of error +/-
6.0%).
About Diageo: Diageo (Dee-AH-Gee-O) is the world's leading premium drinks business with an
outstanding collection of beverage alcohol brands across spirits, wines, and beer categories.
These brands include Johnnie Walker, Guinness, Smirnoff, J&B, Baileys, Cuervo, Tanqueray,
Captain Morgan, Crown Royal, Beaulieu Vineyard and Sterling Vineyards wines. Diageo is a
global company, trading in more than 200 countries around the world. The company is listed on
both the New York Stock Exchange (DEO) and the London Stock Exchange (DGE). Celebrating
life, every day, everywhere, responsibly. For more information about Diageo, its people, brands,
and performance, visit us at www.diageo.com.
About The Hotline & National Journal Group: The Hotline is National Journal's daily briefing
on politics. National Journal Group Inc. is a leading publisher of magazines, newsletters, books
and directories for people who have a professional interest in politics, policy and government.
Based in Washington, D.C., National Journal Group Inc. is committed to providing publications
and services that are non-partisan, reliable and of the highest quality. www.nationaljournal.com.
About FD: One of the most highly regarded consultancies in the communications industry, FD
employs more than 660 staff and advises more than 900 clients worldwide through its hub offices
in London and New York, as well as its network of wholly-owned offices in Bahrain, Beijing,
Bogota, Boston, Cape Town, Chicago, Dubai, Dublin, Frankfurt, Hong Kong, Johannesburg, Los
Angeles, Manchester, Moscow, Panama City, Paris, San Francisco, Shanghai, Sydney and
Washington, DC. With a 20 year history of advising clients in both the private and public sectors,
FD's services include financial public relations, capital markets communications, public affairs,
crisis and issues management and corporate, business-to-business and business-to-consumer
communications. FD is also a market leader in M&A advisory work. FD is structured around
specialist sector teams operating on an international basis, covering consumer industries,
financial services, basic industries, business services, life sciences & healthcare, media, real
estate, technology and telecommunications. FD is a division of FTI Consulting Inc. (NYSE: FCN),
the global business advisory firm. For more information, please visit www.fd.com.
About FTI Consulting: FTI Consulting, Inc. is a global business advisory firm dedicated to
helping organizations protect and enhance enterprise value in an increasingly complex legal,
regulatory and economic environment. With more than 2,400 professionals located in most major
business centers in the world, we work closely with clients every day to anticipate, illuminate, and
overcome complex business challenges in areas such as investigations, litigation, mergers and
acquisitions, regulatory issues, reputation management and restructuring. www.fticonsulting.com.