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Not So Fast Mr. Obama …
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Created: Mon Aug 18 16:12:51 2008
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Not So Fast Mr. Obama
BATTLEGROUND XXXV
August 20, 2008
Republican Strategic Analysis
Brian C. Tringali, Partner
&
Brian Nienaber, Vice President
The Tarrance Group, Inc.
OVERVIEW
Many Americans, and perhaps observers from around the world, seem to be convinced
that Barack Obama is the next President of the United States as if there were no
election this fall and the voters did not have a choice to make. This attitude is one that
has permeated the pundits, the media and some critics contend even the Democratic
nominee's campaign. But it is not true.
Barack Obama looks like a President; he walks and talks like a President; he travels
abroad like a President; he visits foreign governments like a President -- but the voters of
this country have yet to make him their President.
We are in the midst of an economic downturn in this country. Many Americans are
clearly struggling economically. For most of us, our single biggest investment is our
home the value of which many of us have seen plummet over the past few years. For
many, concern about health care is no longer a concern about the availability of coverage
but rather whether they will be able to continue to afford coverage. The nation is
embroiled in a war that we are not too sure how to get out of or if we have met our
objectives to the degree that we believe we ever had any.
Presiding over all of this is a President who has one of the lowest approval ratings in
history. He happens to be a Republican. And although people still like him at a personal
level, they took their wrath out on his party during the last election. Of course, many of
those in the President's party had gone on a bit of a spending spree despite their rhetoric
to the contrary. But people and Republican politicians are people too do weird things
when they can see doom and gloom on the horizon. The Republican brand may have
only been weaker during the days after Watergate.
BATTLEGROUND 35 REPUBLICAN STRATEGIC ANALYSIS 1
So perhaps we should not be too shocked when most observers think Barack Obama is
going to be the next President. Indeed, a simple majority (51%) of the voters think Mr.
Obama will be the next President according to our latest survey (Battleground XXXV).
So why then is John McCain actually ahead in the latest Battleground survey, leading
47% to Obama's 46% on the ballot? In the May 2008 Battleground survey, Obama held
a 3 point lead on the ballot against McCain. Shouldn't Barack Obama be even further
ahead given the current political environment? Shouldn't Barack Obama be capturing at
least a majority of the vote today? There is clearly something at work holding up support
for McCain and holding back support for Obama.
The 2008 presidential campaign is far from over. As this survey reveals, of the 13
attributes tested between the two candidates, John McCain enjoys an advantage on half of
them. Indeed, McCain has seen improvement on every comparative attribute repeated in
this study save one and it is the one in which McCain enjoys his most commanding lead
(the war in Iraq). This positive re-evaluation of John McCain (in comparison to Barack
Obama) is the untold story of the last three months of this election.
John McCain's biggest comparative gain over the last three months has come on the issue
of gas and energy prices. A plurality of voters now see him as able to do a better job on
this issue. His score increased 9 points over the last three months on which of the
candidates would do a better job on the energy and gas issue. At the same time, Obama
dropped 13 points on this issue.
Voters have not decided who the next President will be, but they seem well on the way to
doing so. While most would agree that Barack Obama has enjoyed the spotlight over the
last three months, it does not appear to have paid off in any appreciable way. As voters
have focused on Barack Obama, they seem to not be buying what he is selling. Further,
they are not buying what Obama is selling with regard to the most important issues of the
day energy, the economy and the war.
Even though gas and energy prices are certainly the issue of the day, we pointed out in
the last Battleground analysis that the most important attribute for a candidate to "own"
by Election Day is which one will "keeping America prosperous." History suggests that
a Democratic candidate needs a lead on "keeping America prosperous" in order to spend
his next four years in the White House. Although McCain was 6 points down on this
measure three months ago, the candidates are in a dead heat today -- at 43%. Obama still
has the lead on jobs and the economy, but McCain has made notable improvements on
this issue.
The generic ballot has improved a bit for Republicans at the Congressional level over the
last three months. Part of this could be attributable to a strong campaign now being run
at the Presidential level, which may be helping voters to move beyond the Bush years.
Voters are turning their attention away from the Bush administration and towards the
Presidential election this fall.
BATTLEGROUND 35 REPUBLICAN STRATEGIC ANALYSIS 2
In our last Battleground survey, we found that a plurality of voters believed that
Republicans were running the federal government, but in this latest survey a majority of
the voters (56%) do understand that the Democrats are running the U.S. Congress. Issues
like gas and energy prices, where voters are interested in doing something to lower
prices, are helping voters recognize that the liberals are in charge -- and they are not
doing what voters want. This realization may do the most to help Republicans make it
through the 2008 election cycle.
It is heartening to note that while President George W. Bush's job approval is down to
35%, the job approval for Congress is down to just 19%. Further, while Democrats in
Congress used to be viewed in a more favorable light than Republicans in Congress, their
name identification advantage has vanished over the last three months. As we enter the
final days before the convention process, Republicans should be pleased with what they
see on the horizon. Perhaps this will embolden them for the difficult election which lies
ahead.
A POCKETBOOK VIEW COMES INTO FOCUS
The national feeling of malaise continues. Three-quarters (75%) of the electorate
remains convinced that our nation is off on the wrong track and 63% feel strongly about
it. Among Republicans, 57% think the nation is off on the wrong track, but the figure
rises to 73% among ticket-splitters and 93% among Democrats.
But it is one thing to state that voters are frustrated with our direction and quite another to
suppose that they want change for the sake of change alone. Even when voters are
nervous about what will happen in their lives, it does not mean that they will not be
concerned about what shape that change takes. Nor does it mean that they are willing to
be led by someone who has no idea what that change might look like or how to get there.
Only 14% of the electorate thinks that our economy is either "excellent" or "good" a
figure unchanged since the previous survey. But the percentage of those who think the
current economy is "poor" has dropped from 56% to 50% a modest improvement.
But when it comes to their own lives, voters feel markedly different. A majority of the
voters (51%) think that their own personal economic situation is either "excellent" or
"good." One might surmise that McCain's supporters harbor this feeling, but it also
extends to a wide plurality of the electorate. But there are exceptions and they include
Florida and New York residents, minority voters, female Democrats, conservative
Democrats, and single women.
So, while concerned about the overall direction of the economy and the direction of the
nation, most voters still feel invested in the world around them. They are, by definition,
BATTLEGROUND 35 REPUBLICAN STRATEGIC ANALYSIS 3
frustrated, but are not willing to "throw the baby out with the bath water." Even a
majority of union voters view their own economic situation in a positive light.
Still, voters remain quite concerned, as we have seen. Pocketbook and economic issues
are likely to dominate their vote making decision when it comes to casting their ballot for
President. When voters are focused on pocketbook concerns, it is hard for them to think
about any other issue without looking through the prism of those overriding concerns.
For instance, when they think about health care, the focus is on cost. When they think
about education, the focus is on whether their child will be able to get a job with the skills
he or she learns in high school.
Respondents were asked what current economic issue is most important in determining
their vote for President. Their concerns run the gamut, but begin with the rising cost of
gasoline and fuel (20%). Those most focused on this matter include rural residents, 30-
39 year olds, younger men, younger independents, the very conservative, non-college
men, Dads, and those with a lower education level.
Next on the list is the rising cost of health care at 17%. These voters are more likely to
include seniors, but also Hispanic men, Democrats and ticket-splitters. Higher taxes, lack
of jobs that pay a living wage, and the federal budget and national debt all come in at
12% each. Concern about actually losing a job showed up at merely 4% -- the lowest
response of the list provided.
But despite the fact that few are worried about losing their own job, nearly half (46%)
have either dealt with a job loss for either themselves (9%) or a friend (8%), family
member (20%), co-worker (1%), or a combination thereof (5%). This is a staggering
figure and reinforces the view that this economy is not just an anxiety economy, but an
economy where many are experiencing real loss.
BATTLEGROUND 35 REPUBLICAN STRATEGIC ANALYSIS 4
Q30: Views on the Current State of the Economy
60%
50% 56% 50%
48%
46%
42% 41% 42% 41%
38% 39%
40% 41%
34%
36%
27% 30%
36% 37% 37%
29% 36%
24% 32%
22% 21% 26%
26%
20%
24% 20% 22%
18%
14% 14%
0%
Jan-02 Jun-02 Sep-03 Mar-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Mar-05 Oct-05 Dec-05 May-08 Aug-08
Excellent/Good 27% 29% 24% 36% 37% 37% 41% 32% 26% 14% 14%
Just Fair 48% 50% 42% 38% 41% 42% 41% 46% 39% 30% 36%
Poor 24% 20% 34% 26% 22% 21% 18% 22% 36% 56% 50%
The voters themselves believe that there is a recession going on in America. In fact, we
have rarely shown lower ratings for the economy. All but 15% of voters see the U.S.
economy in a downturn and only 5% see us as either "strong and growing" or "in a
recovery." On the opposite side, more than a third of voters see our economy as either in
a recession (29%) or depression (7%). When we add in those who feel the economy is
approaching a recession, the negative view grows to 59%. Working women, young
people, African Americans, minority women, Democrats, Independent women, those who
are single and those who do not attend church are all more likely to hold this negative
view of the economy.
Nearly half (49%) of respondents believe the most important issue for the U.S. Congress
to work on is pocketbook related. The top issue on this list is the economy and jobs
(24%). Those most likely to be focused on the economy and jobs tend to be living in
identified "toss-up states," urban areas, working women, under 40 years of age, younger
women, African Americans, minority women, Democrats, liberals, college women,
unmarried women, Moms and those less likely to attend church.
BATTLEGROUND 35 REPUBLICAN STRATEGIC ANALYSIS 5
The other big pocketbook issue is gas and energy prices. Fifteen percent (15%) of the
voters want Congress to work on this issue. These voters are more likely to include white
men, Hispanic men, Republicans, the very conservative, Dads, active
Fundamentalist/Pentecostal voters and white conservative Christians. By comparison,
the mortgage crisis only shows up at 1% as a top issue for the Congress.
Security issues are only mentioned by 26% of the voters as the top thing for Congress to
work on. Chief among these issues remains the war in Iraq at 12%. African American
men, Democrat men, Democrats, liberals, and white non-conservative Christians are all
more likely to mention the war issue. But even among each of these subgroups, the top
issue remains the economy and jobs so the war has faded to a secondary concern even
among groups that are more likely to be focused upon it.
In the last Battleground analysis, we talked about how as the war had dropped from the
headlines, the Democratic candidates for President had been able to define much of the
discussion. But negative views of the war have actually dropped since the debate has
become a singular one between John McCain and Barack Obama. A majority still think
the war in Iraq has not been worth fighting, but it is now only a simple majority (51%).
This represents a 5 point drop for those opposed to the war.
Opposition to the war has dropped considerably among Independents over the last three
months. Three months ago, Independents were against the war, as 32% said it was worth
it and 63% said it was not worth it. Today, Independents are split, as 46% think the war
has been worth it and 43% think it has not been worth it. Republicans and Democrats
remain nearly as divided as they were three months ago.
The larger change has come regarding voter views of the last six months in Iraq. Three
months ago, voters were equally divided between their view that the situation in Iraq had
gotten better (32%), gotten worse (30%) or stayed the same (35%). Today, a majority
(56%) believe the situation in Iraq has gotten better and only 15% believe that the
situation has gotten worse. Those most likely to believe that things have gotten better
include men, seniors, white men, Republicans, Independent men, conservatives, married
men, Dads, Catholics, Fundamentalist/Pentecostal voters, and white conservative
Christians.
Among Republicans, 78% believe the situation in Iraq has gotten better over the last six
months. Among Independents, 60% believe that the situation has gotten better in Iraq.
Among Democrats, 35% think things have gotten better in Iraq and only 26% think
things have gotten worse. Three months ago, a plurality of Democrats (46%) thought that
things had gotten worse in Iraq over the previous six months.
BATTLEGROUND 35 REPUBLICAN STRATEGIC ANALYSIS 6
What has not changed in the last
Q11: Views on the Situation in Iraq three months is the view of U.S.
60% strategy in Iraq on the part of the
56% American electorate. Voters are
now even more committed to the
40%
43% view that "the U.S. should keep it
35% forces in Iraq until our military
32% 30% 30%
20% 24% leaders there confirm that the
23%
situation in Iraq is stable enough
15%
that extremist forces will not be able
0% to seize control once U.S. troops
Gotten better Stayed the Gotten worse leave." Today, 44% of the voters
same hold this view, up from 40% in the
previous survey. This view reaches
Dec-07 May-08 Aug-08
a majority with seniors,
Republicans, conservatives, whites,
college men and those who attend church, as well as several other groups.
Still, a majority of American voters are either calling for an immediate withdrawal of all
troops from Iraq (23%) or feel that the U.S. should "set a date, no more than two years
from now, when all troops will be withdrawn from Iraq and start bringing some troops
home immediately (31%)." Despite the radical shift in voters' views of the last six
months of the war, the overall view about our strategy in Iraq has changed very little
Respondents were asked who is the most responsible for the high cost of gas today. It is
interesting how few voters blame the President. When given a list, only 11% blame
President Bush first. Young women, minorities and Democrats are among the more
likely to blame Bush.
The top culprit for the high cost of gas is seen as oil companies, but even they are only
blamed by 20% of the electorate. The others likely to be held responsible include foreign
oil producing countries (14%), speculators (14%) and other nations like China, India and
developing nations (10%). Speculators are a particular target among the investor class --
older men, 60-69 year olds, and married men.
Respondents were asked to evaluate a long list of potential sources of domestic energy.
The most popular among these were incentives for renewable energy sources, like wind,
solar and geothermal (93% favor), promoting energy conservation practices (92%),
building new wind power generating turbines (90%), cracking down on speculators and
price gouging (83%), drilling for oil and natural gas off the Atlantic coastline (72%), and
building new nuclear power plants to generate electricity (69%).
It is interesting to note that one of the least popular ideas was drilling for oil and natural
gas in ANWR. Only 58% were in favor of this option and 39% were against it. Easing
BATTLEGROUND 35 REPUBLICAN STRATEGIC ANALYSIS 7
environmental restrictions and selling oil from the strategic petroleum reserve are both
even less popular than ANWR among the list of options.
THE HONEYMOON COMES TO AN END
Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid may think they know what is best for the country, but
ignoring the will of the electorate on things like drilling for oil comes at a price.
Whatever honeymoon period may have been left to the Democrats, they have certainly
frittered it away. Today, only 19% of the
Q6: Congressional Job Approval electorate approves of the job that
Congress is doing for them. This may be
80% the lowest job approval ever recorded for
74% Congress.
60%
40%
20%
19% Seventy-four percent (74%) of American
0%
8% voters disapprove of Congress'
Approve Disapprove performance and 64% feel strongly about
it. Negative opinions of Congress
become almost universal among older men (82%), seniors (81%), white male seniors
(90%), Republican men (87%), Independent men (83%), moderates (82%), very
conservative (83%), Fundamentalist/Pentecostal voters (81%), white conservative
Christians (81%) and NRA members and supports (82%). Among Independents, 18%
approve of Congress and 76% disapprove. Among Democrats, 27% approve of Congress
and 64% disapprove.
The problem for the Democratic Party is that voters are only too aware that they control
the U.S. Congress. In our last survey, we found that a plurality of voters (48%) held the
view that the Republican Party controlled the federal government, while only 30%
thought the Democratic Party was in control. In this survey we asked which political
party voters thought controlled the U.S. Congress.
A solid majority (56%) are aware that the Democratic Party is in control of the U.S.
Congress. Comparatively, only 27% still think the Republican Party is in control of
Congress. The biggest problem for Democrats is that among Independent voters, 16%
think Republicans are in control and 57% think the Democrats are in control.
Democrats themselves are among the least likely to think that they are in control of
Congress. Among Democrats, 42% think Republicans are in control of Congress and
36% think the Democrats are in control. Among Republicans, 11% think Republicans
are in control and 78% are aware that the Democrats are in control.
BATTLEGROUND 35 REPUBLICAN STRATEGIC ANALYSIS 8
Of course, the President's own job approval is not exactly high. Just 35% of the
American electorate approves of the job George W. Bush is doing in office but that is
actually an improvement from his approval level three months ago. Bush is now not as
relevant for voters as they focus on the contest between McCain and Obama.
Sixty-three percent (63%) of American voters still disapprove of President Bush's
performance in office and 56% feel strongly about it. This is still a universal view (94%)
among Democrats. But Republicans remain supportive of their President by more than a
two-to-one margin, as 66% approve and 30% disapprove. Among Independents, the
President's approval is 29% and 66% disapprove a mirror image of his base.
It is important to note, as we have in the past, that history is likely to be kind to George
W. Bush. Once out of office, Presidents tend to be judged more for the content of their
character rather than the success or failure of their policies. Fifty-seven percent (57%)
continue to approve of the President at a personal level and only 36% disapprove.
A majority of voters (54%) continue to hold an unfavorable opinion of the Republicans in
Congress, while only 35% hold a favorable opinion. But this was the case by the end of
the 2006 election cycle and has not been altered since.
Q3: Generic Congressional Ballot Time Series
60%
49% 47% 49% 47%
50% 46%
44% 46% 46%
40%
41% 41% 40% 41% 40% 40% 40% 40%
30%
20% 15% 14% 14% 11%
13% 13% 13%
10%
10%
0%
Mar-05 Oct-05 Feb-06 Sep-06 Jul-07 Dec-07 May-08 Aug-08
Republican 41% 41% 40% 41% 40% 40% 40% 40%
Undecided 15% 13% 14% 10% 13% 14% 11% 13%
Democrat 44% 46% 46% 49% 47% 46% 49% 47%
This same opinion now holds for the Democrats in Congress. As recently as three
months ago, voters viewed the Democrats in Congress with a 42% favorable opinion and
a 46% unfavorable opinion. It wasn't a positive view, but it did not match their opinion
of Republicans. Today, a majority of the voters hold a negative view of the Democrats in
Congress as 39% are favorable and 50% are unfavorable. Perhaps this is the natural
result of voters coming to understand that the Democrats are now in charge.
BATTLEGROUND 35 REPUBLICAN STRATEGIC ANALYSIS 9
The net result of all of this is a generic ballot for U.S. Congress that remains tough for
Republicans, although it has improved over the last three months. Similar to the 2006
elections, Republicans are still facing a 7 point deficit on the generic ballot. The fact that
McCain is doing so well in a political environment which so favors the Democratic Party
is a true testament to the strength of his candidacy. It is the hope of many Republicans
that as the Bush years come to a close and the McCain campaign hits full steam, that this
will have a beneficiary impact on the generic ballot.
One of the reasons Republicans should remain hopeful about this is that the problem is
not among Independents, as Independent voters are literally divided between the two
parties. The problem is that Republicans are less dedicated to electing their own
candidates in comparison to Democrats for their own party. That intensity deficit may be
something that can be fixed as the election approaches.
AND THEN THERE WERE TWO
It is amazing how similar the image scores appear to be for both Barack Obama and John
McCain. If Obama is this agent of change that America has been waiting for, why is his
image no better than the nominee from the other party -- a political party whose brand is
supposed to be so badly damaged? If Obama is a foregone conclusion for living in the
White House, why do voters not see the two candidates as fundamentally different? The
reality is that both candidates are seen in a similar positive light and that it has been that
way for awhile.
Fifty-seven percent (57%) of the voters hold John McCain in a favorable light and 36%
view him unfavorably. Further, McCain is not particularly identified with his own party.
Indeed, some are even aware that he has bucked his own party and not just on occasion.
McCain is often seen as an independent politician. Independents, as a result, view him
even more positively than the overall electorate. Among Independents, 58% hold a
favorable opinion of John McCain and 29% hold an unfavorable opinion.
Many have noted that the key to McCain's strength is seniors. Among seniors, 64% are
favorable and 29% are unfavorable. It might be hard for the pundits, the press and those
outside of this country to understand, but John McCain's image is actually more positive
than Barack Obama's. Again, the voters have known him for a lot longer and they
certainly know more about him.
The presidential campaign started early this cycle. But back in January of last year, only
79% of the voters had even heard of Barack Obama and only about two-thirds had a fixed
opinion of him. Today, 57% are favorable toward Obama and 39% are unfavorable.
BATTLEGROUND 35 REPUBLICAN STRATEGIC ANALYSIS 10
But Obama has peculiar image problems within some subgroups of the electorate. His
image is upside down in the Southern region of the country, where 45% are favorable and
48% are unfavorable. Among white men, 44% are favorable and 51% are unfavorable.
Even among seniors, the group most likely to vote in any election, 46% are favorable
toward Obama and 46% are unfavorable. Among white conservative Christians, 22% are
favorable and 74% are unfavorable.
While McCain's image is actually better than the overall electorate among Independents,
the same cannot be said for Barack Obama. Among Independents, 51% are favorable
toward Obama and 36% are unfavorable.
But among young people, Obama shines. Among 18-34 year olds, 74% are favorable
toward Barack Obama and 25% are unfavorable. Working women are very positive as
well, among whom 70% are favorable and 25% are unfavorable. For an individual who
is described in his own literature as someone who will unite the country, the voters seem
to have a very divided view about Barack Obama.
Barack Obama's wife, Michelle Obama, is also well known. Ninety-eight percent (98%)
of the voters have heard of her. Forty-eight percent (48%) of the voters hold a favorable
impression of Michelle Obama and 33% hold an unfavorable opinion. Her image reflects
her husband's image vulnerabilities, although less severely.
In the South, 40% are favorable toward Michelle Obama and 41% are unfavorable.
Among seniors, 41% are favorable toward her and 42% are unfavorable. Among
Hispanic men, 35% are favorable toward her and 40% are unfavorable.
Cindy McCain is less of a known quantity. Voters have heard of the wife of the Arizona
Senator, but they are a lot less likely to have an established opinion of her. Perhaps this
will change after the Republican convention in early September.
BATTLEGROUND 35 REPUBLICAN STRATEGIC ANALYSIS 11
Forty-five percent (45%) of the voters are favorable toward Cindy McCain and only 15%
are unfavorable. Although that leaves a large portion of the electorate still to make up
their minds, there are three voters with something positive to say about Cindy McCain for
every one with something negative to say. That is an excellent ratio and twice as positive
as Michelle Obama.
Image Comparison Table
Aware Favorable Unfavorable Ratio
% % %
John McCain 100 57 36 1.6:1
Barack Obama 100 57 39 1.5:1
Cindy McCain 91 46 15 3.1:1
Michelle Obama 99 48 33 1.5:1
In preparation for tracking this election through the fall months, this survey included an
unaided ballot question in which the names of the candidates were not read. The point
spread in the unaided ballot matches the point spread in the aided ballot. From a
statistical perspective, the election is tied on both the unaided and aided ballots.
Unaided ballots are a good indication of the level of commitment behind the candidate.
To some extent, we can expect that the 40% who are giving us McCain's name without
assistance and the 39% who are giving us Obama's name without assistance are locked
into their vote decision. All of this suggests that only about 22% of the vote is really in
flux even before we get to Labor Day. This may be a reflection of the early start of this
presidential cycle.
One of the characteristics of the unaided ballot is that Barack Obama has a firm hold on
young voters, but John McCain has a firm hold on older voters. Also, while African
Americans are locked into Obama as a candidate, this is less likely to be the case for
Hispanics. Contrary to what is going on with the Congressional campaigns, Republican
intensity is slightly higher for McCain than Democrat intensity for Obama. We can
certainly say that a lot of white conservative Christians seem locked into supporting
McCain.
The aided ballot, asked much later in the survey, reveals a similar picture. Once again,
McCain is ahead by a single point tied for all practical purposes. John McCain is
showing 47% on the ballot and Barack Obama is showing 46%. Last May, Obama was
BATTLEGROUND 35 REPUBLICAN STRATEGIC ANALYSIS 12
capturing 49% and McCain was capturing 47%. So, it is not that McCain has increased
his share of the vote, but rather that Barack Obama has lost a portion of his coalition.
This 3 point drop on the ballot for Obama has been more likely to come from Male
Independents (-25), 45+ Independents (-17), Independents (-16), Baptist (-13), African
American men (-13), single (-13), Midwest residents (-12), Central Plains residents (-12),
60-69 year olds (-11), married men (-10), active in church (-10), Protestant (-10), 30-39
year olds (-10), very conservative (-10), employed men (-9), Catholic (-9), white
Evangelical (-9), union household (-9) and 18-34 year olds (-8).
Turnout modeling looks at key demographics and self-reported commitment in the
election to forecast the outcome on Election Day. Turnout modeling puts McCain ahead
on the ballot with 51% to 49%. But we know that young people are likely to account for
16% of total turnout based upon previous presidential year election results.1 Indeed,
younger voters seem quite energized based upon this survey (and other research
available). If we make an adjustment to 16% of total participation among those under 30
years of age, then the ballot switches to 45% McCain and 48% Obama.
Again, the presidential race is simply too close to call. However, the trend seems to be a
positive one for the McCain campaign.
Q20: Presidential Ballot Time Series
May 2008 August 2008
Obama McCain Obama McCain
49% 47% 46% 47%
Und. Und.
5% 7%
1
Franklin, Charles. "Age, Turnout and Votes," (Political Arithmetik, August 11, 2008),
http://politicalarithmetik.blogspot.com/2008/08/age-turnout-and-votes.html, (Accessed August 18, 2008).
BATTLEGROUND 35 REPUBLICAN STRATEGIC ANALYSIS 13
The history of pollsters predicting the outcome of statewide campaigns when African
American candidates are on the ballot has had some notable failures. For some reason,
voters seem less likely to admit to someone calling them on the phone when they are not
planning to vote for an African American candidate. Perhaps it is their own feelings of
guilt when they have no other reason to do so. Because of all this, an attempt was made
to quantify if a certain percentage of the Obama vote might be lying to the pollsters.
In the days ahead, we will continue to ask respondents how comfortable their "friends
and neighbors would be voting for a Presidential candidate who is an African American."
The theory here is that the phrase "friends and neighbors" allows the respondent to tell
the person on the phone how they really feel. The result is that 7% report that they are
"not at all comfortable."
If we just adjust the finding so that the portion of the vote that is supporting Obama but
say that their friends and neighbors are "not at all comfortable" are removed from the
Democratic nominee's coalition, then we have to adjust the ballot down from the
originally reported support level. Such an adjustment would push the ballot to 49% for
McCain and 44% for Obama. In other words, this adjustment has about a 2 point impact
on the support levels for the candidates. It is interesting to note that this is about the
same impact level (although in the opposite direction) as the impact of a higher
participation by young people.
Based upon experimentation in previous elections, it is probably a better estimate to ask
voters about the opinions of their "friends and neighbors" rather than themselves directly.
Despite that point, we asked respondents about a series of characteristics directly,
including if they would be less likely to support an African American candidate. In this
case, only 4% of respondents admitted that they themselves were "not at all comfortable"
with an African American candidate (about half of the "friends and neighbors" response).
The age of John McCain seems to be a lot more of a factor based upon these self reported
responses. But it would be a stretch to suggest that age discrimination has reached the
same level as race discrimination in American politics. Besides, it seems likely that
voters know McCain's age already. It seems even more unlikely that respondents would
be reluctant to tell an interviewer that they are not supporting McCain because of his age.
While 27% of the electorate say they are "not at all comfortable" with a candidate who is
72 years old, only 4% of John McCain's vote feels that way (or less than 2% of the
electorate).
Another question that we plan to track through the election cycle is which of the
candidates voters themselves think will win the election. This touch on expectations is
much more reflective of the rhetoric coming out of the Obama campaign and the world of
journalism. On this question, 51% of the voters think that Obama will win and only 34%
believe that John McCain will be the victor. In many ways, the disparity between this
question and the ballot is the most fascinating result of the survey.
BATTLEGROUND 35 REPUBLICAN STRATEGIC ANALYSIS 14
Twenty-two percent (22%) of those supporting John McCain for President on the ballot,
think that Barack Obama will win in November. Only 9% of the Obama vote feels that
McCain will win. To some extent, the Obama campaign needs to be careful about
complacency. They have already been called out for being a bit smug particularly
when you consider their position on the ballot.
While Obama had the advantage on how the voters were reacting to what they were
seeing, reading and hearing three months ago, that advantage has disappeared today.
Both campaigns are within a point of each other in terms of the reaction by voters to what
they are seeing, reading and hearing about each. Unfortunately for both, this contact is
already having a net negative impact. For John McCain, 46% are less likely to vote for
him and 43% are more likely to vote for him. For Barack Obama, 46% are less likely to
vote for him and 42% are more likely to vote for him based upon what they are seeing.
Most of us understand that the earned media has been much more likely to be about
Barack Obama over these summer months, but the impact of that coverage does not
appear to be putting the McCain campaign at a disadvantage. Nothing could spell this
out more clearly than a review of how each of the candidates is doing on the issues.
But one area where McCain is being labeled is about negative campaigning. We will
probably continue to track, through the fall months, which one of the candidates is seen
as running a more negative campaign. For now, it is clear that John McCain is being
labeled as running the more negative campaign. Fifty percent (50%) of the voters feel
that McCain is running the more negative campaign and 21% think Barack Obama is
doing so. Of course, this question forces the respondent to make a choice between the
two candidates (so it presumes that someone is doing so).
An examination of the 13 characteristics presented to respondents reveals that John
McCain has improved his position over the last six months in all but one of them. That
one area which has not improved for McCain is the one he most soundly "owns"
handling of the Iraq war. More importantly, McCain now leads in six of the thirteen
characteristics provided to respondents, which asks if McCain or Obama would do a
better job handling that particular issue or better illustrate that characteristic.
The strongest positive movements for McCain go a long way to explain his improvement
on the ballot compared to three months ago. McCain's issue handling gains were
strongest on reducing gas and energy prices (+12), creating jobs and improving the
economy (+12) and handling the health care issue (+18). He also saw big improvements
for fighting for people like me (+11), being a strong leader (+10) and representing middle
class values (+9).
But the strongest impact on the race may have been his improvement on sharing your
values (+6), getting things done (+6), and keeping America prosperous (+6). In fact, it is
this last characteristic of "keeping America prosperous" which is a strong predictor of
BATTLEGROUND 35 REPUBLICAN STRATEGIC ANALYSIS 15
which candidate will win. On this question, the two major candidates are now at parity
a direct reflection of the ballot today.
Attributes of the Candidates: A Time Series
John McCain Barack Obama Net
Attribute May Aug. May Aug. Diff.
% % % %
War in Iraq 55 54 38 41 -4
Strong leader 48 52 43 37 10
Shares your values 43 46 46 43 6
Says what he believes -- 44 -- 42 --
Keep America prosperous 41 43 47 43 6
Will get things done 40 42 48 44 6
Reduce gas & energy prices 31 40 50 37 12
Jobs (& economy) 33 39 54 48 12
Fights for people like me 33 39 53 48 11
Independent voice -- 37 -- 50
Representing middle class values 34 37 58 52 9
Will unite the country 34 36 53 50 5
Health care 24 35 61 54 18
BATTLEGROUND 35 REPUBLICAN STRATEGIC ANALYSIS 16
LOOKING AHEAD
August is too often unfairly criticized as a month when nothing happens in Washington.
While it is true many Washington area residents use the Congressional district work
period to spend some much needed time away from the area, August has often been a
month for extraordinary political events. In past Augusts in Washington, there have been
revelations that the President had been attacked by a rabbit, a sitting President was
compelled to testify before a grand jury about his extramarital relationships, and a
member of the United States Senate was arrested for his behavior in an airport restroom2.
And, just a few days ago, there were startling revelations about the personal life of a
former Vice Presidential candidate.
These extraordinary August events also reveal another interesting August phenomenon
in the electoral world, August is much farther from November than one can imagine.
Michael Dukakis, George H.W. Bush, and John Kerry have taken polling leads into
August only to see a much different outcome when the first Tuesday following the first
Monday in November arrived.
These historical events should give analysts pause as they reach for sweeping conclusions
based on August polling data. That said, neither of these two candidates can claim much
of a lead at this point in time, no matter how you look at the numbers. We have to
remember that neither of these candidates have yet accepted their respective party's
nominations.
But what we can say is that despite what has been a difficult time period in our nation's
history both abroad and at home, the myth of Barack Obama's impending ascendancy to
the highest office in the land is exactly that a myth. Based upon the latest Battleground
survey, we can say that John McCain has spent the last three months appealing to voters
across a broad range of issues and characteristics. That effort at retail politics has already
paid dividends. We can hope that it will continue to do so as Republicans head to their
convention in a few short weeks.
One of the reasons that McCain is doing so well is that voters in the primary selected him
in part because he was a change from what Republicans had put up for the White House
in the past. McCain has always been a maverick, which by definition means he has spent
most of his political career fighting against the traditional base of his party and trying to
make a change. It is no fluke that the election laws we all live by today bear his name
and reflect his hopes for a better tomorrow.
McCain has always represented change. To think that John McCain is not a change from
the Bush Administration is to not understand the man either man for that matter. But
John McCain's view of change is a different sort of change than that defined by Barack
2
Mortman, Howard. "Summer in DC: Scandal, not sandals," (Politico, July 21, 2008),
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0708/11920.html, (Accessed August 18, 2008).
BATTLEGROUND 35 REPUBLICAN STRATEGIC ANALYSIS 17
Obama. For one thing, it will be a change agenda informed by years of experience
which may seem counter-intuitive, but is not for this candidate.
No matter which candidate wins in November, the American electorate will be elevating
a standing United States Senator directly to the Presidency for the first time since 1960.
That is certainly a change, given that most of our recent Presidents have been former
Governors. But the 1960 election turned out to be an important pivotal moment in our
nation's history that allowed us to set a new course for our nation. In that, the 2008
election seems likely to have a strong resemblance.
# # #
BATTLEGROUND 35 REPUBLICAN STRATEGIC ANALYSIS 18