Precaution and a Dismal Theorem: …

                                Precaution and a Dismal Theorem:

                     Implications for Climate Policy and Climate Research


                             Gary W. Yohe1, 5 and Richard S. J. Tol2, 3, 4

1
    Woodhouse/Sysco Professor of Economics, 238 Church St., Wesleyan University,
    Middletown, CT 06459 USA
2
    Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin, Ireland
3
    Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
4
    Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh,
    PA, USA
5
    Contact author: phone: 860-685-3658; fax: 860-685-2781; e-mail: gyohe@wesleyan.edu



Working Paper FNU-145


       Economic efficiency has long been a gold standard for evaluating policies. In the
context of climate change, the search for efficient solutions to the policy problem has
evolved into using elaborate, regionally disaggregated integrated assessment models to
judge the relative expected benefits and costs of various policy options across a wide
range of possible futures. In many cases, studies in what is fundamentally a utility-
optimising design, use Monte Carlo simulations to set expected marginal benefits equal
to expected marginal cost. This is why calculations of the social cost of carbon (SCC)
have become so popular.

        This approach has, of course, been criticized because many of the potential
impacts of climate change (particularly non-market impacts and low-probability but high
consequence ramifications of abrupt climate change) cannot easily be quantified in
economic terms. This has lead to arguments in favor of taking a precautionary approach
to climate policy ­ defining the boundaries of "tolerable" climate impacts and working
from there. In this context, policy designers ask the economists to calculate only the
paths that avoid the proscribed boundaries of climate change at minimum expected cost. 1

1
    Because tolerable boundaries are typically defined in terms of temperature limits and because
    temperature change depends, to a first approximation, on cumulative emissions over long periods of time,
    the appropriate economic response can be visualized by solving for an initial shadow price for carbon
    (and other warming gases) with the expectation that it would increase over time at an endogenously
    determined rate of interest.
Critics of this approach have focused primarily on the arbitrary definition of what is or is
not tolerable and the potential for inefficient or inconsistent thresholds.

        This debate is now informed by a "Dismal Theorem" offered by Weitzman
(2007). It shows that profound uncertainty about fundamental parameters like climate
sensitivity (reflected as a "thick upper tail" in their distributions for which the probability
only falls with a power of the size of the event) cannot be overcome for any positive rate
of risk aversion and any positive rate of pure time preference for any distribution whose
moment generating function is infinite (e.g., power-law or lognormal distribitions) and
includes the potential for catastrophic climate impacts (here defined as a prolonged
period of falling welfare per capita). If so, the impact grows exponentially while the
probability falls with a power law and the expected impact becomes unbounded. The
theorem is derived from our inability to observe the events in the tails with enough
frequency to learn anything useful about relatively likelihoods of associated catastrophic
consequences. It follows that uncertainty dominates any calculation of expected climate
damage because Bayesian learning about the critical variables (even with very strong
time discounting) is never strong enough to keep expected marginal damages finite.

        The Dismal Theorem clearly casts doubt on results derived from a cost-benefit
approach to climate policy, at least if the equity implications of declining marginal utility
are recognized; indeed, it suggests that a warning label be attached to integrated
assessment models that rely on the cost-benefit approach ­ something like "Warning: To
be applied only to non-extreme climate change possibilities". The Dismal Theorem
marginalizes the debate over the social cost of carbon and the associated discussions
about what makes estimates high or low. All of the existing estimates are infinitely too
small. It similarly renders the current obsession of the scientific community for reaching
consensus on central tendencies of climate change obsolete. 2 The action is in the dismal
tails.

        On the positive side, the result indicates that the value of some types of
information is far greater (and perhaps infinitely greater) than the value of other
information, and so it offers some guidance on where to devote scarce research resources
in climate and policy science. Moreover, it seems to offer sound theoretic footing for a
generalized precautionary approach designed explicitly to examine the definition of
tolerable climate change. More careful examination of these implications suggests that
another warning label need to be written, but more on that later.

       Before proceeding to make that point, it is important to focus on one important
condition of the Dismal Theorem ­ that decision makers view the world with some

2
    Evidence of this obsession can be found in the most recent report of Working Group 1 to the Fourth
    Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Note, for example, their removal
    of potential contributions of Greenland Ice Sheet melting and collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet
    from sea level rise estimates. Even though these contributions were included in the estimates published
    in the Third Assessment Report, they were deleted in the Fourth because there was no model based
    scientific consensus of what is going on ([IPCC (2007a)]. In the logic of the Dismal Theorem, this
    makes the ice sheets more policy relevant, not less.
aversion to risk (and thus some aversion to inequality). 3 We could get around the Dismal
Theorem by simply asserting that policy makers should always proceed as if they were
completely risk-neutral. Doing so would, however, mean rewriting much of current
economic policy; and doing so only in the climate arena would mean that the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change would have to be completely
overhauled.

        It follows that there is no easy way to dismiss the implications of the Dismal
Theorem for climate policy and climate science. To explore these implications a little
more fully, it is appropriate to contemplate its applicability in a few different cases. Tol
(2003), for example, worked within a cost-benefit framework that recognized multiple
regions with and without equity weighting. Even without recognizing the consequences
of thick tails in the distribution of climate sensitivity, his Monte Carlo simulations noted
the (small but non-zero) probability that marginal utility could grow infinitely large in
one or more regions where even "routine" climate change, particularly declining
precipitation, drove economic activity to subsistence levels. As long as these regions
were given non-zero weight in the expected utility calculation, their plight would
dominate the policy calculus because expected marginal damages would approach
infinity. This was, perhaps, a precursor of the Dismal Theorem.

         Yohe (2003) suggested that this problem could be overcome by implementing a
second policy instrument designed to maintain economic activity above subsistence
levels everywhere ­ a foreign aid program designed simply to prevent economic collapse
anywhere in real time. Tol and Yohe (2007) examined this suggestion within the original
modeling framework and found that, with sufficient aid, the issue of infinite marginal
damage could be avoided. While this work did not envision events characterized in the
fat tails of climate sensitivity, it nonetheless suggests that timely social or economic
interventions that effectively "lop off the thick tails" could undercut the Dismal Theorem
if the impacts of its profound uncertainty were regional.

        If, however, the impacts of the profound uncertainty were felt globally so that no
country or region would have the wherewithal to underwrite the subsistence of another,
then the Dismal Theorem could still persist. It is here, therefore, that a generalized
precautionary principle ­ the logical implication of the Dismal Theorem - comes into
play.

         Can the Dismal Theorem inform the boundaries of precaution? To answer this
question, it is important to note that policy makers are not confined to Bayesian learning,
that is, observe and infer, about the climate sensitivity and other critical parameters in
climate models. They could, equally as well, rely on developing scientific understanding
of the fundamental processes that could produce catastrophic impacts from whatever
climate change happens to materialize. Even if they cannot rely on the scientific
community to characterize "true scenarios" about what might happen, they could ask it to

3
    This assumption is captured simply by allowing the marginal utility of consumption to rise indefinitely as
     consumption falls to a subsistence level (and to fall as consumption rises beyond the range currently
     experienced by developed economies).
(1) explore the triggers of global catastrophe, (2) identify the parameters of fundamental
change that define those triggers, (3) contribute to the design of monitoring mechanisms
that can track the pace of change relative to the triggers, and (4) conduct small- and large-
scale experiments in models, laboratories and perhaps the real world to learn more about
the relevant processes. Assuming that their rate of change could be calibrated to
something like the pace of change in global mean temperature, it would then be possible
to calibrate the likelihood of setting off an "intolerable" trigger by holding warming
below particular targets.

        Three possibilities emerge. In the first, setting off a trigger is reversible, and
avoidable if perhaps draconian intervention into the economic sectors were forthcoming.
Given the great momentum of the climate system, though, the catastrophe would have to
be coped with for a certain period. The precautionary principle would tell us to hedge
against both the cost of such draconian intervention and the transient costs of
"temporary" catastrophe by initiating more modest intervention well in advance of setting
off the trigger. In the second case, the catastrophe is irreversible. Here, the
precautionary principle tells us to hedge more strongly against "falling off the cliff" ­
presumably a hedging strategy that would impose more stringent emissions reductions
much earlier than otherwise contemplated. In this case, calls for geoengineering a
solution are likely. In the third case, the catastrophe is irreversible and unavoidable ­ and
we should enjoy the good times while they last.

         To put this into a "not-implausible" context, consider the collapse of the Atlantic
thermohaline circulation (the THC) as an example of a potentially catastrophic event on a
global scale. The higher the climate sensitivity, the more likely it becomes and the
sooner it might occur. The implications of such a collapse are unknown, particularly in
the socio-economic context, but the planet has experienced another climate equilibrium in
which it does not exist. Three different explanations of the process by which it might
collapse [Keller, et al, forthcoming] have been advanced, but each would point to its own
critical parameter for monitoring. Because we do not know the precise process, we do
not know the triggering threshold, particularly when calibrated in terms of an increase in
global mean temperature. We do know that the THC can collapse in a matter of decades
once the trigger is pulled and that reversal, if possible, would take as long as a century to
achieve [Schlesinger, et al. (2005) and Yin, et al. (2006)].

        Integrated assessment models cannot accommodate any of these profound
uncertainties, particularly in the context of a thick tail in the distribution of climate
sensitivity. They could, though, investigate the least cost approach to any hedging
strategy designed to restrict the likelihood of collapse below any particular limit that the
policy community were to chose, but only if the scientific community could clarify (1)
the triggering mechanism, (2) estimate the lag time between that trigger and a
climatological commitment to crossing the threshold, (3) devise mechanisms for
monitoring circulation intensity with enough precision to inform the likelihood of
commitment, and (4) allow statisticians to calculate probabilities of type 1 and type 2
errors along a range of transient futures based on those monitoring exercises ­ the same
information required to identify the boundaries of tolerable risk. None of these tasks
involves Bayesian learning about climate sensitivity, and that is reassuring. None of it is
simple either, of course; but faced with an impossibility theorem, tackling a difficult
problem is the lesser of two evils.

        It should now be clear why the scientific community must move beyond trying to
nail down consensus about the central baseline tendencies of climate change and embrace
(though not exclusively) an organized effort designed to examine the "dark tails" of our
possible futures. Only then can we begin to define the boundaries of tolerable change on
the basis of rigorous analyses of decision-making criteria that accounts, explicitly, for the
profound uncertainty that characterizes our understanding of the climate system.

        What about the social cost of carbon? Cast in the context of an informed and
rigorously defined precautionary approach to policy design, the social cost of carbon is
the marginal cost of mitigation at any point in time ­ the shadow price of the
precautionary temperature constraint that would just avoid the catastrophe from
happening, and thus approximately the scarcity rent that minimizes the expected cost of
meeting the target. This is not necessarily an easy calculation, but there is some good
news. Climate sensitivity would not be an issue because the social cost of carbon would
be tied to the marginal cost of meeting a concentration target (though climate sensitivity
would be involved in the discussions that identify the target). The discount rate would
not be an issue because the rate applied to other public investments and not the one that
ponders the ethical complications of intergenerational equity now applies. Indeed, this
calculation would exclude some of the sources of uncertainty that explain the enormous
range of social cost of carbon estimates [Chapter 20, IPCC (2007b)]. However, issues
like valuation and equity weighting do not go away, as they are essential ingredients to
the definition of what constitutes a catastrophe.

         We hope to have shed some preliminary light on the "So what?" implications of
the Dismal Theorem on the design of climate policy and climate research. We now turn
to the warning label that we promised. The Dismal Theorem is derived from taking
limits, so it is tempting to take its conclusion to its logical extremes. One might, for
example, read the Dismal Theorem as saying that the value of some improved
information about what might be going on in the thick tail of the climate sensitivity
distribution is infinite. If that is so, then we need to do as much as we can to sharpen the
climate signal by, for example, burning as much coal as quickly as we can. One might
also apply the generalized precautionary principle to all social issues for which there are
unfortunate consequences in the fat tails of the distributions of critical variables because
expected marginal damages are infinite for all of them. But then, how should we set
priorities for distributing the planet's finite resources in the social interest? The
economic tradeoffs would simply be undefined. Thus, we offer a concluding warning
label on the Dismal Theorem: "Warning: Not to be taken to its logical extreme in
application to real world problems."



{2168 words}
                                  Acknowledgements

The authors gratefully acknowledge the contributions of Martin Weitzman in the
preparation of this paper, as well as the comments offered by participants in the Climate
Change Impacts workshop in Snowmass, Colorado in the summer of 2007. All
remaining errors reside with the authors.
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Equilibrium Analysis, FNU-96 (submitted, Water Policy)
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Alternative Organisational Frameworks, FNU-94 (submitted)
Berrittella, M., A.Y. Hoekstra, K. Rehdanz, R. Roson and R.S.J. Tol (2005), The Economic Impact of Restricted Water Supply: A
Computable General Equilibrium Analysis, FNU-93 (Water Research, 42, 1799-1813)
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602)
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90 (submitted)
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Zandersen, M. and R.S.J. Tol (2005), A Meta-analysis of Forest Recreation Values in Europe, FNU-86 (submitted)
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change - a preliminary approach using stock, environmental, and management constraints, FNU-84 (Natural Resources Modelling,
20 (2), 223-262)
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(submitted)
Schneider, U.A. and B.A. McCarl, (2005), Appraising Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Potentials: Effects of Alternative
Assumptions, FNU-81 (submitted)
Zandersen, M., M. Termansen, and F.S. Jensen, (2005), Valuing new forest sites over time: the case of afforestation and recreation in
Denmark, FNU-80 (submitted)
Guillerminet, M.-L. and R.S.J. Tol (2005), Decision making under catastrophic risk and learning: the case of the possible collapse of
the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, FNU-79 (submitted, Climatic Change)
Nicholls, R.J., R.S.J. Tol and A.T. Vafeidis (2005), Global estimates of the impact of a collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet: An
application of FUND, FNU-78 (submitted, Climatic Change)
Lonsdale, K., T.E. Downing, R.J. Nicholls, D. Parker, A.T. Vafeidis, R. Dawson and J.W. Hall (2005), Plausible responses to the
threat of rapid sea-level rise for the Thames Estuary, FNU-77 (submitted, Climatic Change)
Poumadère, M., C. Mays, G. Pfeifle with A.T. Vafeidis (2005), Worst Case Scenario and Stakeholder Group Decision: A 5-6 Meter
Sea Level Rise in the Rhone Delta, France, FNU-76 (submitted, Climatic Change)
Olsthoorn, A.A., P.E. van der Werff, L.M. Bouwer and D. Huitema (2005), Neo-Atlantis: Dutch Responses to Five Meter Sea Level
Rise, FNU-75 (submitted, Climatic Change)
Toth, F.L. and E. Hizsnyik (2005), Managing the inconceivable: Participatory assessments of impacts and responses to extreme
climate change, FNU-74 (submitted, Climatic Change)
Kasperson, R.E. M.T. Bohn and R. Goble (2005), Assessing the risks of a future rapid large sea level rise: A review, FNU-73
(submitted, Climatic Change)
Schleupner, C. (2005), Evaluation of coastal squeeze and beach reduction and its consequences for the Caribbean island Martinique,
FNU-72 (submitted)
Schleupner, C. (2005), Spatial Analysis As Tool for Sensitivity Assessment of Sea Level Rise Impacts on Martinique, FNU-71
(submitted)
Sesabo, J.K. and R.S.J. Tol (2005), Factors affecting Income Strategies among households in Tanzanian Coastal Villages: Implication
for Development-Conservation Initiatives, FNU-70 (submitted)
Fisher, B.S., G. Jakeman, H.M. Pant, M. Schwoon. and R.S.J. Tol (2005), CHIMP: A Simple Population Model for Use in Integrated
Assessment of Global Environmental Change, FNU-69 (Integrated Assessment Journal, 6 (3), 1-33)
Rehdanz, K. and R.S.J. Tol (2005), A No Cap But Trade Proposal for Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Targets for Brazil, China
and India, FNU-68 (submitted, Climate Policy)
Zhou, Y. and R.S.J. Tol (2005), Water Use in China's Domestic, Industrial and Agricultural Sectors: An Empirical Analysis, FNU-67
(Water Science and Technoloy: Water Supply, 5 (6), 85-93)
Rehdanz, K. (2005), Determinants of Residential Space Heating Expenditures in Germany, FNU-66 (Energy Economics 29)
Ronneberger, K., R.S.J. Tol and U.A. Schneider (2005), KLUM: A Simple Model of Global Agricultural Land Use as a Coupling Tool
of Economy and Vegetation, FNU-65 (submitted, Climatic Change)
Tol, R.S.J. (2005), The Benefits of Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction: An Application of FUND, FNU-64 (submitted, Global
Environmental Change)
Röckmann, C., M.A. St.John, U.A. Schneider, F.W. Köster, F.W. and R.S.J. Tol (2006), Testing the implications of a permanent or
seasonal marine reserve on the population dynamics of Eastern Baltic cod under varying environmental conditions, FNU-63-revised
(Fisheries Research, 85, 1-13)
Letsoalo, A., J. Blignaut, T. de Wet, M. de Wit, S. Hess, R.S.J. Tol and J. van Heerden (2005), Triple Dividends of Water
Consumption Charges in South Africa, FNU-62 (Water Resources Research, 43, W05412)
Zandersen, M., Termansen, M., Jensen,F.S. (2005), Benefit Transfer over Time of Ecosystem Values: the Case of Forest Recreation,
FNU-61 (submitted)
Rehdanz, K., Jung, M., Tol, R.S.J. and Wetzel, P. (2005), Ocean Carbon Sinks and International Climate Policy, FNU-60 (Energy
Policy, 34, 3516-3526)
Schwoon, M. (2005), Simulating the Adoption of Fuel Cell Vehicles, FNU-59 (submitted)
Bigano, A., J.M. Hamilton and R.S.J. Tol (2005), The Impact of Climate Change on Domestic and International Tourism: A
Simulation Study, FNU-58 (submitted, Integrated Assessment Journal)
Bosello, F., R. Roson and R.S.J. Tol (2004), Economy-wide estimates of the implications of climate change: Human health, FNU-57
(Ecological Economics, 58, 579-591)
Hamilton, J.M. and M.A. Lau (2004) The role of climate information in tourist destination choice decision-making, FNU-56
(forthcoming, Gössling, S. and C.M. Hall (eds.), Tourism and Global Environmental Change. London: Routledge)
Bigano, A., J.M. Hamilton and R.S.J. Tol (2004), The impact of climate on holiday destination choice, FNU-55 (Climatic Change, 76
(3-4), 389-406)
Bigano, A., J.M. Hamilton, M. Lau, R.S.J. Tol and Y. Zhou (2004), A global database of domestic and international tourist numbers
at national and subnational level, FNU-54 (International Journal of Tourism Research, 9, 147-174)
Susandi, A. and R.S.J. Tol (2004), Impact of international emission reduction on energy and forestry sector of Indonesia, FNU-53
(submitted)
Hamilton, J.M. and R.S.J. Tol (2004), The Impact of Climate Change on Tourism and Recreation, FNU-52 (forthcoming, Schlesinger
et al. (eds.), Cambridge University Press)
Schneider, U.A. (2004), Land Use Decision Modelling with Soil Status Dependent Emission Rates, FNU-51 (submitted)
Link, P.M., U.A. Schneider and R.S.J. Tol (2004), Economic impacts of changes in fish population dynamics: the role of the
fishermen's harvesting strategies, FNU-50 (submitted)
Berritella, M., A. Bigano, R. Roson and R.S.J. Tol (2004), A General Equilibrium Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Tourism,
FNU-49 (Tourism Management, 27 (5), 913-924)
Tol, R.S.J. (2004), The Double Trade-Off between Adaptation and Mitigation for Sea Level Rise: An Application of FUND, FNU-48
(Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 12 (5), 741-753)
Erdil, E. and Yetkiner, I.H. (2004), A Panel Data Approach for Income-Health Causality, FNU-47
Tol, R.S.J. (2004), Multi-Gas Emission Reduction for Climate Change Policy: An Application of FUND, FNU-46 (Energy Journal
(Multi-Greenhouse Gas Mitigation and Climate Policy Special Issue), 235-250)
Tol, R.S.J. (2004), Exchange Rates and Climate Change: An Application of FUND, FNU-45 (Climatic Change, 75, 59-80)
Gaitan, B., Tol, R.S.J, and Yetkiner, I. Hakan (2004), The Hotelling's Rule Revisited in a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model, FNU-
44 (submitted)
Rehdanz, K. and Tol, R.S.J (2004), On Multi-Period Allocation of Tradable Emission Permits, FNU-43 (submitted)
Link, P.M. and Tol, R.S.J. (2004), Possible Economic Impacts of a Shutdown of the Thermohaline Circulation: An Application of
FUND, FNU-42 (Portuguese Economic Journal, 3, 99-114)
Zhou, Y. and Tol, R.S.J. (2004), Evaluating the costs of desalination and water transport, FNU-41 (Water Resources Research, 41
(3), W03003)
Lau, M. (2004), Küstenzonenmanagement in der Volksrepublik China und Anpassungsstrategien an den Meeresspiegelanstieg,FNU-
40 (Coastline Reports (1), 213-224.)
Rehdanz, K. and D.J. Maddison (2004), The Amenity Value of Climate to German Households, FNU-39 (submitted)
Bosello, F., Lazzarin, M., Roson, R. and Tol, R.S.J. (2004), Economy-wide Estimates of the Implications of Climate Change: Sea
Level Rise, FNU-38 (Environmental and Resource Economics, 37, 549-571)
Schwoon, M. and Tol, R.S.J. (2004), Optimal CO2-abatement with socio-economic inertia and induced technological change, FNU-37
(Energy Journal, 27 (4), 25-60)
Hamilton, J.M., Maddison, D.J. and Tol, R.S.J. (2004), The Effects of Climate Change on International Tourism, FNU-36 (Climate
Research, 29, 255-268)
Hansen, O. and R.S.J. Tol (2003), A Refined Inglehart Index of Materialism and Postmaterialism, FNU-35 (submitted)
Heinzow, T. and R.S.J. Tol (2003), Prediction of Crop Yields across four Climate Zones in Germany: An Artificial Neural Network
Approach, FNU-34 (submitted, Climate Research)
Tol, R.S.J. (2003), Adaptation and Mitigation: Trade-offs in Substance and Methods, FNU-33 (Environmental Science and Policy, 8
(6), 572-578)
Tol, R.S.J. and T. Heinzow (2003), Estimates of the External and Sustainability Costs of Climate Change, FNU-32 (submitted)
Hamilton, J.M., Maddison, D.J. and Tol, R.S.J. (2003), Climate change and international tourism: a simulation study, FNU-31
(Global Environmental Change, 15 (3), 253-266)
Link, P.M. and R.S.J. Tol (2003), Economic impacts of changes in population dynamics of fish on the fisheries in the Barents Sea,
FNU-30 (ICES Journal of Marine Science, 63 (4), 611-625)
Link, P.M. (2003), Auswirkungen populationsdynamischer Veränderungen in Fischbeständen auf die Fischereiwirtschaft in der
Barentssee, FNU-29 (Essener Geographische Arbeiten, 35, 179-202)
Lau, M. (2003), Coastal Zone Management in the People's Republic of China ­ An Assessment of Structural Impacts on Decision-
making Processes, FNU-28 (Ocean & Coastal Management, No. 48 (2005), pp. 115-159.)
Lau, M. (2003), Coastal Zone Management in the People's Republic of China ­ A Unique Approach?, FNU-27 (China Environment
Series, Issue 6, pp. 120-124; http://www.wilsoncenter.org/topics/pubs/7-commentaries.pdf )
Roson, R. and R.S.J. Tol (2003), An Integrated Assessment Model of Economy-Energy-Climate ­ The Model Wiagem: A Comment,
FNU-26 (Integrated Assessment, 6 (1), 75-82)
Yetkiner, I.H. (2003), Is There An Indispensable Role For Government During Recovery From An Earthquake? A Theoretical
Elaboration, FNU-25
Yetkiner, I.H. (2003), A Short Note On The Solution Procedure Of Barro And Sala-i-Martin for Restoring Constancy Conditions,
FNU-24
Schneider, U.A. and B.A. McCarl (2003), Measuring Abatement Potentials When Multiple Change is Present: The Case of
Greenhouse Gas Mitigation in U.S. Agriculture and Forestry, FNU-23 (submitted)
Zhou, Y. and Tol, R.S.J. (2003), The Implications of Desalination to Water Resources in China - an Economic Perspective, FNU-22
(Desalination, 163 (4), 225-240)
Yetkiner, I.H., de Vaal, A., and van Zon, A. (2003), The Cyclical Advancement of Drastic Technologies, FNU-21
Rehdanz, K. and Maddison, D. (2003) Climate and Happiness, FNU-20 (Ecological Economics, 52 111-125)
Tol, R.S.J., (2003), The Marginal Costs of Carbon Dioxide Emissions: An Assessment of the Uncertainties, FNU-19 (Energy Policy,
33 (16), 2064-2074).
Lee, H.C., B.A. McCarl, U.A. Schneider, and C.C. Chen (2003), Leakage and Comparative Advantage Implications of Agricultural
Participation in Greenhouse Gas Emission Mitigation, FNU-18 (submitted).
Schneider, U.A. and B.A. McCarl (2003), Implications of a Carbon Based Energy Tax for U.S. Agriculture, FNU-17 (submitted).
Tol, R.S.J. (2002), Climate, Development, and Malaria: An Application of FUND, FNU-16 (forthcoming, Climatic Change).
Hamilton, J.M. (2003), Climate and the Destination Choice of German Tourists, FNU-15 (revised and submitted).
Tol, R.S.J. (2002), Technology Protocols for Climate Change: An Application of FUND, FNU-14 (Climate Policy, 4, 269-287).
Rehdanz, K (2002), Hedonic Pricing of Climate Change Impacts to Households in Great Britain, FNU-13 (Climatic Change 74).
Tol, R.S.J. (2002), Emission Abatement Versus Development As Strategies To Reduce Vulnerability To Climate Change: An
Application Of FUND, FNU-12 (Environment and Development Economics, 10, 615-629).
Rehdanz, K. and Tol, R.S.J. (2002), On National and International Trade in Greenhouse Gas Emission Permits, FNU-11 (Ecological
Economics, 54, 397-416).
Fankhauser, S. and Tol, R.S.J. (2001), On Climate Change and Growth, FNU-10 (Resource and Energy Economics, 27, 1-17).
Tol, R.S.J.and Verheyen, R. (2001), Liability and Compensation for Climate Change Damages ­ A Legal and Economic Assessment,
FNU-9 (Energy Policy, 32 (9), 1109-1130).
Yohe, G. and R.S.J. Tol (2001), Indicators for Social and Economic Coping Capacity ­ Moving Toward a Working Definition of
Adaptive Capacity, FNU-8 (Global Environmental Change, 12 (1), 25-40).
Kemfert, C., W. Lise and R.S.J. Tol (2001), Games of Climate Change with International Trade, FNU-7 (Environmental and Resource
Economics, 28, 209-232).
Tol, R.S.J., W. Lise, B. Morel and B.C.C. van der Zwaan (2001), Technology Development and Diffusion and Incentives to Abate
Greenhouse Gas Emissions, FNU-6 (submitted).
Kemfert, C. and R.S.J. Tol (2001), Equity, International Trade and Climate Policy, FNU-5 (International Environmental Agreements,
2, 23-48).
Tol, R.S.J., Downing T.E., Fankhauser S., Richels R.G. and Smith J.B. (2001), Progress in Estimating the Marginal Costs of
Greenhouse Gas Emissions, FNU-4. (Pollution Atmosphérique ­ Numéro Spécial: Combien Vaut l'Air Propre?, 155-179).
Tol, R.S.J. (2000), How Large is the Uncertainty about Climate Change?, FNU-3 (Climatic Change, 56 (3), 265-289).
Tol, R.S.J., S. Fankhauser, R.G. Richels and J.B. Smith (2000), How Much Damage Will Climate Change Do? Recent Estimates,
FNU-2 (World Economics, 1 (4), 179-206)
Lise, W. and R.S.J. Tol (2000), Impact of Climate on Tourism Demand, FNU-1 (Climatic Change, 55 (4), 429-449).