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Rev 12/14/07 …
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Created: Thu Dec 13 11:52:07 2007
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Rev 12/14/07 University of Iowa Hawkeye Poll
University of Iowa Hawkeye Poll
Topline Results
October 29, 2007
October 2007 Poll of Iowa Caucus Goers
Sample: 689 Caucus Goers, MoE +/-3.9%
306 Democratic Caucus Goers, MoE +/-5.5%
285 Republican Caucus Goers, MoE +/-5.8%
The poll was in the field from October 17 through October 24. David Redlawsk and Caroline Tolbert, Associate Professors of
Political Science conducted the poll with graduate students James Rydberg and Howard Sanborn, and undergraduate student
Brigid Feymuller, all of the University of Iowa. The poll was carried out by with the cooperation and facilities of the
University of Iowa Social Science Research Center directed by Professor Kevin Leicht, UI Department of Sociology.
CONTACTS: David Redlawsk, UI Hawkeye Poll, 319-400-1134 (cell), mailto:david-redlawsk@uiowa.edu; Caroline Tolbert,
UI Hawkeye Poll, 319-335-2360 (office), mailto:caroline-tolbert@uiowa.edu; Kevin Leicht, UI Social Science Research
Center, 319-335-2502 (office), 319-621-0570 (cell), mailto:kevin-leicht@uiowa.edu; Nicole Riehl, UI News Services, 319-
384-0070, mailto:nicole-riehl@uiowa.edu
Caucus Screening:
Respondents were asked whether they were very likely, somewhat likely, not very likely, or not at all likely to
attend their party's caucus in 2008. Among all registered voters contacted, 37.2% said they were "not at all" likely
to caucus, while another 21.3% said they were "Not very likely". These two groups were not considered "likely
caucus goers". The remaining 41.5% said they were "Very Likely" (24.1%) or "Somewhat Likely" (17.4%) to
caucus. A second screen then asked which party's caucus the voter planned to attend. Of the initial screen of likely
caucus goers, 4.4% could not name a party, and were dropped. Approximately 35% of the original registered
voter sample is thus classified as "likely caucus goers". Of the total original registered voter sample, about 19.1%
are likely Democratic caucus goers and 14.4% are likely Republican Caucus Goers.
Of the registered voter contacts, 35.0% were Democrats, 31.9% were Republicans, and 33.1% were neither party,
broadly representative of Iowa party registration. Of the caucus-going sample, 58.6% said they will attend the
Democratic caucus and 41.4% say they will attend the Republican caucus, reflecting a significantly greater
difficultly in identifying Republicans who say they may caucus.
Candidate Preference
If your caucus was TODAY, who would you support for president at your caucus? Just tell me the name.
[March and August UI Hawkeye Poll results for comparison]
OCTOBER AUGUST MARCH
DEMOCRATS N=306 N=319 N=298
CLINTON 28.9 24.8 28.5
OBAMA 26.6 19.3 19.3
EDWARDS 20.0 26.0 34.2
RICHARDSON 7.2 9.4 *
BIDEN 5.3 * *
DON'T KNOW 8.9 14.4 12.5
OTHERS 3.3 4.1 5.5
* Less than 1%
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Rev 12/14/07 University of Iowa Hawkeye Poll
OCTOBER AUGUST MARCH
REPUBLICANS N=282 N=223 N=178
ROMNEY 36.2 27.8 16.9
GIULIANI 13.1 11.7 20.3
HUCKABEE 12.8 1.8 *
THOMPSON, F 11.4 7.6 *
MCCAIN 6.0 3.1 20.9
TANCREDO 2.2 5.4 *
DON'T KNOW 14.9 27.4 23.2
OTHERS 3.5 15.1 18.7
* Less than 1%
EDUCATION
GENDER AGE HS SOME BA POST
F M 18-44 45-60 61+ COLLEGE GRAD
DEMOCRATS
BIDEN 4.3 6.7 0.0 3.5 9.9 4.0 2.4 6.8 8.9
CLINTON 33.0 22.5 19.1 30.7 31.4 33.3 22.4 36.4 21.4
EDWARDS 16.8 25.0 16.2 26.3 16.5 22.7 23.5 14.8 19.6
OBAMA 26.5 26.7 41.2 21.1 24.0 24.0 32.9 25.0 21.4
RICHARDSON 8.1 5.8 7.4 10.5 4.1 2.7 7.1 8.0 12.5
DON'T KNOW 10.3 6.7 7.4 4.4 14.1 10.7 9.4 5.7 10.7
OTHERS 1.1 6.7 8.8 3.5 0.0 2.7 2.4 3.4 5.4
REPUBLICANS
GIULIANI 10.6 16.0 13.5 14.7 10.6 6.8 16.5 15.6 15.6
HUCKABEE 13.0 12.6 11.5 18.6 8.9 13.5 11.4 11.5 18.8
MCCAIN 4.6 7.6 9.6 4.9 5.7 4.1 6.3 6.3 9.4
ROMNEY 37.8 34.4 30.8 30.4 43.1 36.5 41.8 37.5 15.6
THOMPSON, F 9.9 13.0 11.5 14.7 8.9 12.2 13.9 8.3 12.5
DON'T KNOW 19.2 9.9 13.5 10.8 18.7 23.0 3.8 17.7 12.5
OTHERS 5.3 6.1 9.6 5.9 4.1 4.0 6.3 4.2 15.6
ATTEND RELIGIOUS SVCS BORN AGAIN/EVANGELICAL
LESS THAN WEEKLY
WEEKLY OR MORE YES NO
REPUBLICANS
GIULIANI 17.7 12.7 14.3 12.4
HUCKABEE 4.4 15.7 21.2 6.4
MCCAIN 10.3 4.6 7.1 5.7
ROMNEY 35.3 37.1 29.2 41.1
THOMPSON, F 22.1 8.1 10.6 12.9
DON'T KNOW 7.3 15.7 13.3 15.0
OTHERS 2.9 6.1 4.3 7.5
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Rev 12/14/07 University of Iowa Hawkeye Poll
Likelihood of Changing Preference
How likely is it that you might change your mind and end up caucusing for a different candidate than the one you
support now? Is it:
(August Poll for comparison)
ALL D R
NOT AT ALL LIKELY 34.6 (30.5) 39.6 (33.6) 28.9 (26.2)
SOMEWHAT LIKELY 54.7 (57.1) 49.6 (55.9) 60.7 (59.0)
VERY LIKELY 8.1 (11.4) 7.9 (9.3) 8.4 (13.8)
Satisfaction with Candidates
(August Poll for comparison)
Given the people who now say they are running for president in 2008, how satisfied are you with your choices?
Would you say you are:
ALL D R
VERY SATISFIED 28.9 (30.6) 45.5 (43.4) 10.9 (16.1)
SOMEWHAT SATISFIED 56.1 (54.7) 44.8 (48.7) 68.4 (62.7)
NOT SATISFIED 14.1 (14.7) 9.4 ( 6.9) 19.3 (21.2)
Support for Al Gore (Democrats Only)
Some people are pushing former Vice President Al Gore to run for President. If Gore ran, how likely would you
be to support him?
SUPPORTERS OF....
ALL CLINTON EDWARDS OBAMA
VERY LIKELY 19.6 8.1 21.7 23.4
SOMEWHAT LIKELY 34.5 36.0 38.3 35.1
NOT AT ALL LIKELY 41.9 52.3 38.3 35.1
Candidate Spouses
How important is the candidate's spouse to your decision about whether to support a candidate? Is the spouse:
D R
VERY IMPORTANT 17.1 13.8
SOMEWHAT IMPORTANT 32.8 47.9
NOT VERY IMPORTANT 30.8 20.9
NOT AT ALL IMPORTANT 19.3 17.4
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Rev 12/14/07 University of Iowa Hawkeye Poll
Issues in the Presidential Race
I am going to read a list of issues. Please tell me which ONE is the most important to your vote for president in
2008.
[List of Issues Randomized]
D R
ABORTION 1.4 7.2
AGRICULTURAL POLICY 1.4 1.4
ECONOMY 15.8 15.8
EDUCATION 6.7 4.0
ENERGY POLICY 2.4 2.9
ENVIRONMENT/ 5.7 1.1
GLOBAL WARMING
GAY MARRIAGE 0.7 2.9
HEALTH CARE 23.2 9.5
IMMIGRATION 2.4 13.7
IRAQ WAR 34.9 15.5
TERRORISM 1.7 21.9
Immigration Views
How important is a candidate's position on undocumented immigration to your vote for president in 2008?
D R
MOST IMPORTANT 2.4 13.7
VERY IMPORTANT 32.1 52.5
SOMEWHAT IMPORTANT 50.8 29.2
NOT IMPORTANT 14.7 4.6
Which comes closest to your view about what government policy should be regarding undocumented immigrants
currently residing in the United States. Should the government:
[Options Randomized]
D R
DEPORT ALL UNDOCUMENTED IMMIGRANTS 14.7 29.7
ALLOW UNDOCUMENTED IMMIGRANTS TO 16.5 12.0
REMAIN IN THE US AS GUEST WORKERS
FOR A LIMITED TIME
ALLOW UNDOCUMENTED IMMIGRANTS TO 66.9 51.7
BECOME CITIZENS IF THEY MEET CRITERIA
LIKE LEARNING ENGLISH AND PAYING THEIR
BACK TAXES
ALLOW UNDOCUMENTED IMMIGRANTS TO 6.5 2.2
BECOME PERMANENT RESIDENTS WITH
NO REQUIREMENTS
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Rev 12/14/07 University of Iowa Hawkeye Poll
Which ONE of the following is MOST responsible for the immigration situation we have today?
[Options Randomized]
D R
THE UNDOCUMENTED IMMIGRANTS 14.5 19.5
WHO COME ACROSS OUR BORDERS
EMPLOYERS WHO HIRE UNDOCUMENTED 57.3 49.2
IMMIGRANTS
IMMIGRATION POLICIES ESTABLISHED 28.5 31.3
BY THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT
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