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Tags: abbreviations, acknowledgments, acronyms, current account balances, development prospects, economic developments, economic outcomes, external sector, food prices, foreign direct investment, gcc, gg, oil market, policy framework, remittances, table of contents, tourism,Pages: 6
Language: english
Created: Mon Jun 30 11:38:41 2008
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Table of Contents
FOREWORD IX
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS XI
ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS XIII
OVERVIEW XVII
CHAPTER 1 RECENT ECONOMIC OUTCOMES AND SHORT-TERM DEVELOPMENT
PROSPECTS 1
1.1 Overview of recent economic developments 2
1.1.1 Sources of growth 6
1.1.2 Growth among resource-poor MENA economies 9
1.1.3 Growth among resource-rich MENA economies 12
1.2 Developments in the external sector 14
1.2.1 Oil market conditions 14
1.2.2 Exports of goods 15
1.2.3 Imports of goods 16
1.2.4 Tourism 17
1.2.5 Remittances 18
1.2.6 Current account balances 20
1.2.7 Foreign direct investment in selected countries 22
1.3 Rising food prices and their implications 23
1.3.1 Impact on non-GCC MENA 25
1.3.2 Impact on GG countries 28
1.3.3 Policy framework and response 39
1.4. Near-term economic prospects, 2008-2010 35
1.4.1 Global assumption underlying the projections 35
1.4.2 Overview of near-term prospects 39
1.4.3 Risks 42
CHAPTER 2. REGIONAL INTEGRATION FOR GLOBAL COMPETITIVENESS 47
2.1 Integration via trade in goods 48
2.1.1 Past integration attempts 49
Contents iii
2.1.2 Impediments to goods trade 52
2.1.3 Non-tariff barriers and logistics 58
2.2 Integration via services 63
2.3 Integration through labor mobility 69
2.3.1 Intra-regional migration trends 70
2.3.2 Intra-regional migration since 2000 72
2.3.3 Remittances 75
2.3.4 Prospects for regional migration 77
2.4 Integration through capital flows 81
2.4.1 Banking sector 81
2.4.2 Stock markets 83
2.4.3 Project-based investments in MENA 86
2.5 Integration through infrastructure links 88
2.5.1 Electricity grrids interconnection 88
2.5.2 Cross-border gas pipelines 91
2.5.3 Transport link 93
2.5.4 Road transport 94
2.5.5 Rail transport 97
2.5.6 Air transport 98
2.5.7 Telecommunications 100
2.6 The Road Ahead 104
3. STRUCTURAL REFORM PROGRESS FOR LONG-TERM GROWTH 107
3.1 Introduction 107
3.2 Trade re lated reforms 108
3.2.1 Recent developments 108
3.2.2 Quantifying progress with trade reform 115
3.3 Business climate reform 121
3.3.1 Recent developments 121
3.3.2 Targeted industrial policies 125
3.3.3 Quantifying progress 126
3.4 Governance Reform 131
3.4.1 Recent developments 131
3.4.2 Quantifying progress 134
iv Economic Development and Prospects
TECHNICAL ANNEX: S OURCES OF FDI AND THE MENA EDP-2008 REPORT 43
APPENDIX A STATISTICAL TABLES 139
APPENDIX B STRUCTURAL REFORM INDICATORS FOR 2008 171
B.1. Trade policy in 2007 173
B.2 Trade policy Reform Index 174
B.3 Building the current-status indices 175
B.4 Business-climate indices for 2007 176
B.5 Current business climate 2007 177
B.6 Building the composite business-reform indices 178
B.7 Business reform p rogress: 2003-2007 179
B.8 The quality of public administration and reform progress 181
B.9 Public sector accountability and reform progress 182
BIBLIOGRAPHY 183
BOXES
Box 2.1 MENA integration has a long history 50
Box 2.2 Nationalization policies in the GCC 71
Box 2.3 The Dubai international financial center 82
Box 2.4 Capital outflows from GCC countries 87
Box 2.5 Intra-MENA investments: Case of Emaar Holding 87
Box 2.6 International roads agreement in ESCWA countries 95
Box 2.7 Implementation status of the agreement on international roads 96
Box 2.8 Agreement on international railway in the Arab Mashreq 98
Box 2.9 Queen Alia International airport in Jordan 99
Box 2.10 ARABSAT 102
Box 2.11 Cross border investors in telecommunications in MENA 103
Box 2.12 Arab Network for regulators (ARNET) 104
Box 3.1 Trade relationship & recent developments with the European Union 109
Box 3.2 Trade reform in Egypt 112
FIGURES
Figure 1.1 MENA growth eases to 5.7 percent in 2007 3
Figure 1.2 Inflation trends in selected countries 5
Figure 1.3 FDI flows to MENA region just off the record highs of 2006 5
Figure 1.4 Generally favorable growth among RPLA economies in 2007 11
Figure 1.5 Oil production cuts in 2007 capacity maximum and/or OPEC quotas 12
Figure 1.6 Mixed growth outturns for 2007 across oil exporting countries 13
Figure 1.7 Oil prices rebound sharply breaching $100/bbl in early 2008 14
Figure 1.8 Oil price and growth of revenues among oil exporters, 2002 2007 15
Figure 1.9 RPLA deficit on goods trade continues to widen on strong imports 17
Contents v
Figure 1.10 RPLA tourism revenues pick-up on 2006 outturns 18
Figure 1.11 Worker remittances surge in a number of recipient countries 19
Figure 1.12 GCC countries remittance outflows pick-up over the last 3 years 20
Figure 1.13 RPLA current account shows modest deterioration 21
Figure 1.14 Research-rich current surplus remains at high levels 21
Figure 1.15 Foreign direct investment in selected countries 22
Figure 1.16 Food imports as a share of total imports, 2006 24
Figure 1.17 CPI for all goods and food, 2007 26
Figure 1.18 CPI for all good and food, 2008 26
Figure 1.19 Fiscal and trade balances, 2007 27
Figure 1.20 Share of food in total expenditure of two lowest quintiles 28
Figure 1.21 CPI inflation for all goods and food in 4 GCC countries, 2008 28
Figure 1.22 Food subsidies in selected MENA countries, 2007 29
Figure 1.23 MENA per-capita growth to ease in step with LMIC countries 39
Figure 2.1 The number of regional agreements grew strongly over the past two decades 48
Figure 2.2 The network of MENA regional agreements is dense 50
Figure 2.3 Intra-regional trade for selected MENA countries 52
Figure 2.4 Exports to the region remain generally of minor significance 53
Figure 2.5 MENA destinations are of some importance for non-oil exports 53
Figure 2.6 Import tariffs vary markedly across MENA 57
Figure 2.7 Non-tariff measures are highly restrictive in MENA countries 59
Figure 2.8 Trade procedures in MENA are cumbersome 60
Figure 2.9 Trade procedures in MENA are time consuming 60
Figure 2. 10 The logistics performance of most MENA countries is below expectations 61
Figure 2. 11 GATS commitments illustrate varying reform mindedness across the region 63
Figure 2.12 Services exporters for selected countries, 1996-2006 64
Figure 2.13 MENA contains both net-exporters and net-importers of services 65
Figure 2.14 Total and intra-MENA tourism exports have grown strongly 66
Figure 2.15 Inward FDI stocks have expanded substantially in resource-poor countries 67
Figure 2.16 Exports of parts and components have increased in some Maghreb countries 68
Figure 2.17 MENA region's share in world trade, FDI, and remittances paid and received 69
Figure 2.18 Migrants and refugees in the MENA region, 1960-2005 73
Figure 2.19 Increase between 2000-2005 in refugee and non-refugee migrants, 74
Figure 2.20 MENA Migrants in GCC/Arab countries vs. other countries (UNIT) 74
Figure 2.21 Remittances received as percent of GDP 76
Figure 2.22 Remittances paid, percent of GDP 76
Figure 2.23 Population and labor force (LF) projections for GCC countries 80
Figure 2.24 Ownership in the Amman stock market 84
Figure 2. 25 Power grids interconnection projects in MENA region 91
Figure 2.26 Cross-border gas pipelines in the MENA Region 93
Figure 2.27 Submarine Fiber Optic Cable in MENA Region 101
Figure 3.1 Change in trade policy index: 2005-2007 119
Figure 3.2 Factors underlying trade policy index declines: 2005-2007 120
Figure 3.3 Change in business climate index: 2005-2007 130
TABLES
Table 1.1 Summary of economic developments in the region by country group, 1996-2007 4
Table 1.2 Sources of growth for the region, by country group, 1996-2007 8
Table 1.3 GDP growth for the region, by country group, 1996-2007 10
vi Economic Development and Prospects
Table 1.4 Policy actions by selected countries 31
Table 1.5 Assumptions about the global environment to 2010 38
Table 1.6 Real GDP growth for the region, by country group, 2000-2010 40
Table 2.1 Bilatera l treaties in MENA 51
Table 2.2 Trade with partners in regional agreements is low 54
Table 2.3 Bilateral trade complementarity in MENA is low 55
Table 2.4 Bilateral complementarity for non-oil trade is somewhat higher 56
Table 2.5 Logistics performance varies within country groups and across components 62
Table 2.6 Expulsions and forced return migration in relation to the Gulf wars 71
Table 2.7 MENA intra-regional migration, 2000 77
Table 2.8 Number of Contracts for Egyptians to Work in Arab Countries (1991-2001) 78
Table 2.9 Views of national governments on levels migration, and proposed policies 79
Table 2.10 Regional network of select Arab banks 83
Table 2.11 Stock Market Indicators in the MENA Region 85
Table 2.12 Power systems information in MENA countries 89
Table 2.13 Railways lines in Arab countries 97
Table 2.14 Telecommunications market characteristics in MENA countries (2006) 100
Table 3.1 Trade policy map of MENA countries: free trade agreements 111
Table 3.2 Association agreements & action plans with the European Union 114
Table 3.3 Trade policy reform progress, 2000-2007 118
Table 3.4 Business and regulatory reform 129
Table 3.5 Quality of public administration in 2007, and 2000-2007 reform index 135
Table 3.6 Public Sector Accountability, 2007, and 2000-2007 Reform Index 137
APPENDIX TABLES
Table A.1 Real GDP growth, 1996-2007 140
Table A. 2 Population growth, 1996-2007 141
Table A. 3 Labor force growth, 1996-2007 142
Table A. 4 Real GDP Pe r-capita growth, 1996-2007 143
Table A. 5 Real GDP per-labor force growth, 1996-2007 144
Table A. 6 Nominal GDP, 1996-2007 145
Table A. 7 Population, 1996-2007 146
Table A. 8 Labor force, 1996-2007 147
Table A. 9 Consumer price inflation, 1996-2007 148
Table A. 10 Overall fiscal balance, 1996-2007 149
Table A. 11 Overall fiscal balance, 1996-2007 150
Table A. 12 Total fiscal revenue (Including Grants), 1996-2007 151
Table A. 13 Total fiscal expenditures, 1996-2007 152
Table A. 14 Current fiscal expenditures, 1996-2007 153
Table A. 15 Exports of goods and services, 1996-2007 154
Table A. 16 Merchandise exports, 1996-2007 155
Table A. 17 Crude oil and refined product exports, 1996-2007 156
Table A. 18 Iimports of goods and services, 1996-2007 157
Table A. 19 Workers' remittances (net), 1996-2007 158
Table A. 20 Tourism revenues (BOP Basis), 1996-2007 159
Table A. 21 Current account balance, 1996-2007 160
Table A. 22 Current account balance, 1996-2007 161
Table A. 23 Foreign direct investment, 1996-2007 162
Table A.24 Foreign direct investment as a share of gross fixed investment 1996-2007 163
Contents vii
Table A.25 Foreign direct investment as a share of GDP, 1996-2007 164
Table A.26 Gross foreign reserves (including Gold), 1996-2007 165
Table A.27 Reserves in months of import coverage 1996-2007 166
Table A.28 Exchange rates, 1996-2007 167
Table A.29 Real effective exchange rates, 1996-2007 168
TableA.30 Real private fixed investment growth, 1996-2007 169
viii Economic Development and Prospects