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The Battleground 2008 …
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Created: Wed Aug 20 00:12:41 2008
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The Battleground 2008
August 2008
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Democratic Strategic Analysis:
by Celinda Lake, Daniel Gotoff, and Mark Keida
With fewer than 11 weeks to go, Americans remain deeply dissatisfied with the
direction of the country and President Bush's leadership. Four dollar a gallon gas, a war
that has dragged our country into recession and made us less safe, a health care system in
crisis and a President and Party seemingly oblivious to the nation's pain. Voters' appetite
for change remains intense and palpable.
For most of the summer, these dynamics combined to afford Obama a narrow,
though consistent lead. At this point in the contest, however, after a continued and largely
unanswered negative campaign on the part of McCain, the race is a statistical dead heat
(47% for McCain to 46% for Obama). Underneath the more modest movement in the
overall vote from our last poll, however, is a larger shift among independents that is of
particular concern for Obama. In May, Obama led among independents by 14 points;
today, McCain is winning these voters by 10 points. At the same time, voters are solidly
negative in their assessment of the country (75% say we are on the wrong track), their
assessment of the economy (67% say it is "just fair" or "poor"), and their disapproval of
Bush's job (63% disapprove), which bodes well for Obama.
Obama still has voters to gain. Voters view him as the candidate who better
embodies middle class values, is more apt to fight for "people like me" and get things done,
can more capably handle the pressing issues of the economy and health care; he is also
perceived as the more independent of the two candidates. Yet these advantages are not
translating into a ballot advantage for Obama. Obama has effectively claimed both the
dimensions of leadership and the key issues that are central to this election. In order to
start converting these advantages into real ballot support, he needs to play commandingly
not just on his own turf, but on McCain's too, competing with the Republican nominee on
the qualities that are central to his image: strong leadership, and advantages on Iraq and
other matters of national security and foreign policy. Part of this task involves Obama
continuing to establish his own bona fides on these fronts. Equally important, and
heretofore missing, is exposing McCain's substantial weakness when it comes to these
issues and dimensions of leadership, which remain so essential in a post-9/11 world.
The race to control the U.S. Congress is decidedly less eventful and more assured.
The Democrats continue to lead by a solid 6-point margin, very close to the advantage they
had at this point in the 2006 cycle. The component pieces are there for the Democrats to
engineer a sweep at virtually every level of federal office.
This poll represents a traditional turnout pattern. Obama's ace in the hole,
however, is his ability to change the electorate. Modeling even a modest increase in youth
turnout generates a 2-point lead for Obama.
1726 M Street, NW, Suite 500 · Washington, DC 20036 · tel. 202/776-9066 · fax 202/776-9074
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www.lakeresearch.com
CHANGE? VOTERS WANT A FULL REFUND ON THE BUSH YEARS.
Voters want change and both candidates are trying to attach that mantel to
themselves. Democrats are served well whenever they are able to successfully tie
McCain to Bush's policies, as voters have thoroughly rejected Bush's 8-year track record.
In the first Battleground survey following Bush's takeover in 2001, voters were
effectively split on the direction of the country (40% right direction / 45% wrong track).
It did not take long for those assessments to grow increasingly farther apart under
Republican stewardship. Today, three-quarters of voters (75%) say things in the country
are pretty seriously off on the wrong track, including over six-in-ten (63%) who feel this
way strongly. Only 18% think the country is headed in the right direction (7% strongly)
essentially unchanged from May, but far lower than when Bush took office. Welcome to
the "change" election.
And it is not just "frustrated" Democrats who feel this way even if they were the
first to identify the downward trajectory into which the country has been pulled.
Majorities of every demographic and partisan subgroup say the country is headed
off on the wrong track, including 94 percent of Democrats, 78 percent of independents,
and even a 55 percent majority of Republicans. Fully 86% of undecided voters on the
Presidential ballot want change as well.
The question, of course, is whether and to what extent this dynamic will
accrue to Obama's benefit, as the standard bearer of the Party out of power and as the
chief politician associated with the change message. It is not surprising that among the
few Americans who look positively on the direction of the country McCain is doing quite
well, besting Obama, 88% to 7%. Yet among change-oriented voters, Obama is beating
McCain by a wide margin, 58% to 34%, which also bodes well for future gains among
undecided voters. Moreover, voters solidly believe Bush is doing a bad job 35%
approve and 63% disapprove. Among undecided voters, only 22% approve and a
whopping 72% disapprove. Surely, the man who has voted to ratify Bush's agenda at
increasingly higher rates over the years (culminating with him voting with Bush 100% of
the time this year) is the less likely of the two candidates to put the country on a new
course. Of course, that critical piece of information has eluded many Americans so far, as
the McCain campaign assiduously works to maintain the "maverick" label.
Voters' assessment of the nation's course might be more positive had Bush's so-
called economic "recovery" actually trickled down to the 95% of the country that needs
it. Fully HALF of voters cite pocketbook economic issues as the top concerns facing the
country the economy and jobs (24%), gas prices (15%), and health care costs (8%) top
the panoply of economic anxieties. This is essentially unchanged from May. In fact,
pluralities of Democrats (32%) and independents (17%) cite the economy and jobs, while
Republicans say gas and energy prices are their chief concerns (21%, compared to 18%
economy and jobs). The war in Iraq continues to drop off of voters' radar (12%, down
from 15% in May). Noticeably, concerns over "moral values" are nowhere to be found
this cycle. With the economy dominating, traditional wedge issues are much less likely
to work.
Battleground 2008 Lake Research Partners
August 2008 Page #2
Obama is handily winning voters who are most concerned with the war in Iraq
(+42), health care costs (+38), and the economy and jobs (+18). McCain is posting even
more impressive margins, however, among those voters most concerned with terrorism
(-86), illegal immigration (-59), and, most troubling, gas prices (-37).
Voters Top Concerns
Economy and Jobs 24%
Gas and Energy Prices 15%
War in Iraq 12%
Health Care 8%
Illegal Immigration 7%
Terrorism 7%
Retirement and Social Security 5%
Other 22%
THE BELTWAY WALTZ: DANCING AROUND THE "R" WORD
It seems these days the only people who think the U.S. economy is not in a
recession are working for the Bush administration or the McCain campaign. Americans
do not see themselves as a "Nation of Whiners," as McCain's economic advisor put it.
They are feeling a real squeeze: gas prices hovering around $4 dollars a gallon,
skyrocketing education and health care costs, record personal debt, soaring prices for
staple commodities like milk, sugar, and rice.
To "Main Street" Americans, the economy is certainly experiencing more than
just a little hiccup and the economic pinch they're feeling is not all in their minds, to
paraphrase McCain's economic advisor. Forty-four percent of voters have been
touched by joblessness over the past year; even if they have not been laid off
themselves, the specter of losing one's ability to support his/ her family looms large.
Nearly six-in-ten (59%) say the economy in their area is in recession, and another
quarter say the economy is looking down, not up. Only 15% say the economy in their
area is in on the rebound, 10% of whom say it is growing but not as quickly as they
would like (the other 4% say the economy is in a recovery and a scant 1% of voters say it
is strong and growing).
Asked another way, fully half of voters rate the economy in the worst terms
permitted in our survey (50% "poor"), followed by another 37% who give the
economy a middling rating of "fair." Compare this to the 14% who give the economy a
rating of either "excellent" (1%) or "good" (13%) a figure which would presumably
include McCain. This is a stark contrast for Obama to underscore.
Battleground 2008 Lake Research Partners
August 2008 Page #3
Swing undecided voters have much more in common with Obama voters than
McCain voters when it comes to their views on the economy. For example, 63% of
McCain voters say they are positive about their own economic situation but only 39% of
Obama and undecided voters agree with that. Similarly, only 27% of McCain voters
believe the national economy is poor, but 63% of undecided voters and 71% of Obama
voters say the economy is poor. Drawing a starker contrast on the economy is key to
winning undecided voters.
As we found in previous Battleground surveys, the so-called "Nation of Whiners"
is comprised of people from across the political spectrum, including many in McCain's
own Party. Democrats (94% "recession/downturn" / 96% "fair/poor economy") and
independents (83% / 91%) rate the economy in decidedly negative terms, as do solid
majorities of Republicans (74% / 74%). Some "straight talk" is probably best kept
among very close company, since those who cite "jobs and the economy" as the most
pressing issues facing the nation break for Obama over McCain by a decisive 18 points.
Only in comparison to such a bleak assessment could the electorate be considered
upbeat about their own personal economic situation. Roughly half offer a positive
assessment of their own finances (9% "excellent / 42% "good"), compared to another half
(49%) who rate their own finances negatively (36% "fair" / 13% "poor").
When asked about the economic issues that will most determine their vote in
November, voters cite the rising cost of gasoline and fuel (20%) and rising health care
costs (17%) more than any other issue. A close second-tier of economic anxieties centers
on areas where this Bush administration has also waged a frontal assault for the better
part of a decade, including on the budget deficit and national debt (12%), the lack of
good-paying jobs (12%), taxes (12%), and retirement security (10%).
THE ENERGY CRISIS: TO DRILL OUR WAY OUT OF A HOLE?
Amid two wars in the Middle East, a flagging economy, and sharp pains at the gas
pump, Americans are in the process of forming their impressions on the best ways to
break the country's addiction to oil. Not only has $4 a gallon for gasoline (even higher
for diesel) forced most Americans to reconsider and reconfigure their regular patterns of
consumption, it has also forced our public officials to tackle an issue for which there is no
quick fix and thus, few honest opportunities for getting public credit. Yet that doesn't
stop some from proffering all manner of electoral gimmicks, including suspending the
transportation gas tax and unlimited offshore drilling both of which have been pilloried
by economists as unable to deliver on the promise of relief at the pump, and which may
actually exacerbate the problem altogether. As energy becomes one of the central fault
lines in this election cycle, the demand for sensible solutions is rivaling the demand for
oil.
There isn't much consensus about how we got into this mess in the first place
and there is plenty of blame to go around. A small plurality (20%) points to the big oil
companies, which, in posting record profits in multiple financial quarters, have done little
to disabuse voters of the notion that they are to blame. This feeling is broad, with 22% of
Battleground 2008 Lake Research Partners
August 2008 Page #4
Democrats, 14% of independents, and 16% of Republicans saying the big oil companies
are to blame.
Yet voters also understand quite Gas Prices: Who is to Blame?
well that the price at the pump is an
Oil Companies 20%
artifact of much more than collusion Foreign oil makers 14%
among Big Oil executives. They also Speculators 14%
point to the foreign oil producing President Bush 11%
countries (14%), oil speculators (14%), China, India, etc. 10%
and the energy agenda of the Bush Env.laws/regulators 8%
administration (11%). Fewer cite what Dem in Congress 7%
experts at the U.S. Department of Consumers 5%
GOP in Congress 2%
Energy have warned us for years that
Car Manufacturers 1%
the unabated, oil-fed industrialization of
Combo 5%
developing countries like China and Other/None 3%
India is a principal driver of a long-term
spike in world oil prices. Just 10% of
the electorate has keyed in on this global dynamic. And even though voters are less likely
to say that environmental laws and regulators (8%), the Democrats in Congress (7%),
they themselves (5%), Republicans in Congress (2%) or car manufacturers (1%) are to
blame, these factors are all wrapped up in the story of $4 dollar gas, too.
As for solutions to the energy crisis, a virtually unanimous majority (93% support
/ 5% oppose) says the U.S. should provide incentives for renewable energy, such as
biofuels and solar power, including a whopping 75% who feel this way strongly. Similar
percentages support the expansion of new wind power generating turbines (90% / 6%)
and promoting energy conservation practices in homes, government, and businesses (92%
/ 6%). These voters also reveal a populist streak in their strongly stated desire for the
government to crack down on speculators and price gouging on the part of the big oil
companies (83% support / 14% oppose). Support for these initiatives crosses Party lines,
with nearly indistinguishable majorities of Democrats, independents, and even
Republicans supporting renewables, wind, conservation, and taking on the speculators
and price gougers.
When it comes to energy, however, most voters want to do everything. And
though smaller majorities support building new nuclear power plants (69% support /
27%), cutting welfare to the big oil companies (64% / 27%), and burning more coal (64%
/ 30%), roughly similar percentages across the partisan divide agree here as well
(Democrats are only slightly more tepid in their desire to expand coal and nuclear
power).
On the issue of drilling, however, consensus quickly recedes to reveal a much
deeper disagreement along partisan lines. A majority (72% / 25%) supports conferring
more leases on the big oil companies for offshore drilling, despite the fact that these
companies already have hundreds of unused leases and the Department of Energy
estimates that new oil supplies will impact the market in only the most marginal ways,
and not for decades to come. Still, the promise of a quick fix is too hard to pass up for
Battleground 2008 Lake Research Partners
August 2008 Page #5
politicians desperate for contributions and voters desperate for solutions. Nearly all
Republicans surveyed (93%) support offshore drilling; smaller majorities of independents
(68%) and Democrats (54%) support it as well. But there are limits to the drilling
bonanza. An increased but more limited majority (58% / 38%) supports drilling in the
Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, and the partisan divide promises to keep this proposal
bottled up in committee. Republicans generally support it (83% support), independents
are closer to split (56% support), and Democrats tend to oppose it (35% support).
Compared to the leading proposals for dealing with the energy pinch, cutting
environmental laws (47% / 48%) and selling oil from the strategic petroleum oil reserve
(40% / 51%) are both D.O.A. On the former, 65% of Republicans favor cutting
environmental laws while independents are split and 66% of Democrats oppose this. On
the latter, Democrats are divided and independents and Republicans oppose it.
Gas Prices: Solutions?
Renewables 5% 75% 93%
Wind power 6% 73% 90%
Stop spec./gouging 14% 9% 72% 83%
Conservation 6% 71% 92%
Drill coasts 25% 16% 51% 72%
Cut oil subsidies 27% 17% 48% 64%
Nuclear power 27% 17% 42% 69%
Drill in ANWR 38% 30% 41% 58%
Coal power 30% 16% 33% 64%
Cut env. Laws 48% 34% 26% 47%
Sell reserve oil 51% 32% 15% 39%
THE WAR IN IRAQ: THE OTHER SAD LEGACY OF BUSH-MCCAIN
When Washington passed a $168 billion dollar economic stimulus package in
February, it was hailed as a triumph of bi-partisanship, even if it did little to pull our
country out of its economic doldrums its ostensible purpose. Yet in fairness,
Washington was also fighting with one hand tied behind its back. 5 years and 2 trillion
dollars after the Bush-McCain "cakewalk" in Iraq began, the war continues to divert
billions in taxpayer dollars weekly into rebuilding Iraq instead of into projects that will
improve our economy here at home, from investments in health care and education to
renewable energy and public infrastructure. Adding further insult to the American
taxpayer, Iraq is now projecting a $79 billion dollar surplus this year while collecting
interest in American banks!
Republicans can rightly claim some success in convincing Americans that the
"surge" had effectively stabilized Iraq: a majority (56%) says the situation in Iraq has
gotten better over the past six months (24% "stayed the same" / 15% "gotten worse").
But Americans understand the tradeoff between guns and butter and any progress
Battleground 2008 Lake Research Partners
August 2008 Page #6
voters see has done little to alter their fundamental determination that the war was
a mistake. A majority consistently says that the Iraq war is no longer worth fighting
(51%), compared to 42% who say the war is worth fighting and 7% who are not
quite sure. This helps explain why a consistent majority also favors withdrawing troops
from Iraq (54%) either immediately (23%) or at a date certain (31%). In contrast, 44%
say we should keep forces in Iraq until the situation is confirmed to be stable.
But as with measures on the direction of the country and the state of the economy,
McCain is doing a better job than Obama of consolidating voters who share his position
on this issue. McCain is winning voters who support keeping forces in Iraq until the
situation is confirmed to be stable, 82% to 12%. Obama is winning voters who support
withdrawal, but by a narrower margin, 72% to19%, suggesting room to grow on this
critical issue.
REGARDING WASHINGTON: THE DEFICIT OF ANOTHER KIND
Voters do not suffer gladly a pocketbook recession and a war without end,
nor do they suffer gladly those who created the mess. Voters continue to punish
President Bush and the GOP for steering the nation into a ditch, and the Democrats are
not in great favor either. It is certainly not news that Washington has an image problem,
but it is worth noting the growing bitterness with which voters regard the President and
the two Parties.
President Bush is not a lame duck, so much as he is an albatross around the
neck of Republicans, dragging his Party to new depths. He continues to be
radioactive for both John McCain and GOP candidates further down the ballot.
Nearly two-thirds (63%) disapprove of Bush's job performance (56% strongly
disapprove), including 96% of Democrats (3% approve), 66% of independents (29%
approve), and even 27% of his own Party (69% approve). Overall, just 35 percent of
voters approve of Bush's job (22% strongly approve). Voters are only slightly less malign
in their impressions of Bush as a person (44% fav / 54% unfav). As with his job
performance ratings, Democrats (8%, 90%) and a solid majority of independents (39%,
59%) disapprove of Bush the man. Republicans are far more forgiving (82%, 16%).
Name ID & Job Performance
Bush Fav 54% 45% 22% 44%
GOP Fav 53% 33% 9% 35%
Dem Fav 50% 33% 15% 38%
Bush Job 63% 56% 22% 35%
Congress Job 73% 64% 6% 19%
Battleground 2008 Lake Research Partners
August 2008 Page #7
Bush can take some solace in the fact that voters are even more critical of
Congress than they are of him. Both Parties sport solidly unfavorable image ratings.
Only about one-third (35%) holds a favorable impression of the GOP in Congress
(9% very favorable), compared to a majority (53%) who offer an unflattering
assessment (33% very unfavorable) (May: 31% favorable / 56% unfavorable).
Majorities of Democrats (10% favorable / 80% unfavorable) and independents (28% /
53%) are unfavorable toward the GOP, while an underwhelming majority of Republicans
(64% / 26%) are kind toward their own.
Democrats in Congress also suffer from a marked deficit of public esteem. Thirty-
eight percent are favorable toward the Democrats (15% very favorable), compared to half
who are not (33% very unfavorable) (May: 42% favorable / 46% unfavorable). The
Democratic base is slightly more forgiving of their own than Republicans are of theirs
(69% / 19%), while independents (25% / 59%) and Republicans (12% / 78%) are solidly
unfavorable toward the Democrats.
It is even harder for voters to offer positive assessments of the job that Congress
is doing as a collective institution, though it is worth noting that more than one-quarter of
likely voters (27%) still believe the GOP controls Congress. It should be particularly
troubling to incumbents of every stripe that only 19% think Congress is doing a good job
(6% very / 13% smwht), compared to a whopping 73% who disapprove of Congress's job
performance (64% very / 10% smwht). What is more, this feeling traverses Party lines:
majorities of Democrats (64% disapprove / 26% approve), independents (76% / 18%),
and Republicans (81% / 13%) all say that Congress is falling well short of expectations.
Taken together, these trends can scarcely be considered positive for the
Democrats, despite their continued advantage on the generic congressional ballot. In
May, Democrats owned a 13-point advantage in positive image ratings over their GOP
counterparts among independents (33% favorable to 20% favorable, respectively), and an
11-point advantage in terms of Party enthusiasm (69% of Democrats liked Democrats,
compared to 58% of the same for Republicans). Today, the advantage among
independents has evaporated (25% to 28%, respectively), while the advantage among the
Party faithful is down to just 5 points (69% to 64%, respectively).
CONTROLLING CONGRESS: BACKBENCHERS LOOKING FOR LIGHT SWITCH
Despite voters casting a pox on both houses, the dynamics of support at the
Congressional level has remained unchanged for the better part of two years: voters
prefer to keep the GOP out of power by a decisive margin. Currently, Democrats lead
the GOP by 7 points, 47 percent (43% solid) to 40 percent (37% solid), with 13
percent undecided. Recall that in September of 2006, less than two months before the
Democrats dominated the GOP in races nationally, the Democrats held an 8-point
advantage over the GOP in our Battleground survey. And the lead has hovered
consistently around this margin ever since: 7 points in July, 2007; 5 points in December,
2007; 10 points in May, 2008; and 7 points today. At this point in the cycle, the
conditions look encouraging for Democratic successes.
Battleground 2008 Lake Research Partners
August 2008 Page #8
Generic Congressional Ballot
Democrats 43% 47%
Republicans 37% 40%
Undecided 13%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
The Democrats' winning coalition represents a mix of traditional Democratic base
voters and key swing regional and demographic segments of the electorate. Regionally,
the Democrats own leads in the Northeast (+23), South Central (+12), and West (+11), as
well as in contested states (+7) and Kerry states (+24). The Republicans command
advantages in the South (+12) and Central Plains (+5). Elsewhere regionally, the race is
neck-and-neck, including in the Midwest (+2), Mountain States (+2), toss-up states (+3),
and Bush states (+1).
Among key demographic subgroups, Democrats command advantages among
"Reagan" Democrats (+76), women (+22), Hispanics (+20), and white women (+10).
Democrats also lead Republicans among every age, educational, religious
attendance, and marital cohort, save seniors (-7) married men (-24), college
educated men (-17), and weekly church attendees (-19). Democrats also lead among
the huge majority that thinks the U.S. is pretty seriously off on the wrong track (+30), as
well as voters who say the economy and jobs (+32) and the war in Iraq (+51) are the most
pressing issues facing the country. In contrast, Republicans take men 45+ (+13), seniors
(+7), white men (+21), college men (+14), married men (+24), weekly church attendees
(+19), and voters who say gas and energy prices are the most important issues facing the
nation (+28).
There is also a sizeable enthusiasm gap between the two Parties. At this point
in the race, Democrats maintain a decisive edge over the GOP in their ability to convert
the Party faithful: 89% of Democrats vote Democratic (4% defect to the GOP), compared
to 79% of the same for Republicans (10% defect to the Democrats). Independents are
split (33% GOP / 32% Democrat).
The undecided vote is modest at 13%, and the demographic profile of these
voters suggests they will be tough for either side to attract. These voters skew toward
women (57%), voters over the age of 45 (79%), blue-collar voters (57%), independents
(44%), married voters (63%), regular church attendees (50%), non-fundamentalist/born-
again voters (53%), whites (75%), and suburban voters (59%). Attitudinally, they look
more promising for the Democrats. Undecided voters want change, with over eight-in-ten
(81%) pessimistic about the direction of the country. Jobs and the economy (21%) are the
issues about which they are most concerned, and a majority (57%) says the economy is
poor. And a majority (56%) thinks the war in Iraq is not worth fighting. These voters are
slightly more critical of Democrats (25% fav / 54% unfav) than Republicans (27% /
48%), though they hold warmer opinions of Obama (56% / 28%) than McCain (51% /
31%).
Battleground 2008 Lake Research Partners
August 2008 Page #9
IMAGES OF OUR NEXT PRESIDENT: THE "CHANGE"(ING) CANDIDATE(S)
With fewer than 80 days until the November election, voters are still getting to
know the two "presumptive" major Party nominees Barack Obama and John McCain.
Both candidates are positioning themselves as the candidate of "change," yet their tasks
could not be more dissimilar. McCain must contend with the fact that he is a fixture of
Washington and a reliable Bush-Republican at a time when voters are looking for neither.
He also needs to speak convincingly to voters' concerns over the economy, gas prices,
and health care issues where voters are nervous about his ability to lead in the right
direction. Obama, for his part, must assure voters that his brand of change is the right
one to make the country safe and prosperous in the 21st century, amid a Republican smear
campaign designed to play on latent xenophobia, racism, and fear. Most important,
Obama must prove that he is ready to lead.
As expected, both candidates have seen their favorable-to-unfavorable ratios drop
from the stratospheric levels that prevailed during the Primary season. On the
Democratic side, Barack Obama continues to enjoy solidly net-favorable name
identification (56% fav / 38% unfav), and the intensity of opinion leans in his favor as
well (34% very fav / 29% very unfav) (May: 54% fav, 40% unfav). Majorities of
Democrats (88% fav / 8% unfav) and independents (51% / 36%) hold Obama in high
regard, as do as over a quarter of Republicans (26% / 70%). Obama is also viewed net-
favorably by critical demographic subgroups, including among women (+29), rural voters
(+2), whites (+4), Hispanics (+46), independents (+15), and blue-collar men (+8) and
women (+12). Back in May, the central challenge for Obama was consolidating his base;
he has nearly done that (88% fav among Democrats, up from 75%). Now, he must work
to bring independents back into his camp (51% fav, down from 58%).
Unfavorable Favorable Net
Barack Obama 38% 29% 34% 56% +18
John McCain 36% 22% 23% 57% +21
Michelle Obama 33% 20% 24% 48% +15
Cindy McCain 15% 6% 17% 45% +31
On the Republican side, John McCain owns a similar, net-positive favorability
rating (57% fav / 36% unfav), though there is noticeably less intensity to his profile (23%
very fav / 22% very unfav) (May: 54% fav / 39% unfav). Like Obama, McCain is finally
getting his own house in order (88% fav / 8% unfav). McCain has also started to break
through with independents (58% / 29%), among whom he is now viewed more favorably
than Obama. Even a quarter of Democrats like McCain (27% / 67%). Still, while both
McCain and Obama are performing equally in terms of consolidating their respective
Parties (88% favorable for each), McCain needs to increase his favorability among
Battleground 2008 Lake Research Partners
August 2008 Page #10
groups that will likely prove
decisive in this election, including Prez Positive ID by Party ID
women (+10 compared to +29) and Obama McCain
Hispanics (+9 compared to +46).
88% 88%
The Obama campaign needs 58%
51%
to start defining the race along the
lines of which candidate is better 26% 27%
prepared to represent the middle
class, fight for ordinary Americans,
be independent, and unite the
Dem Ind GOP Dem Ind GOP
country. Obama is leading on all
these dimensions, including among
independent voters. McCain has dominant advantages on being "a strong leader," and
at least among independent voters "saying what he believes" and "sharing your values."
The two candidates are about evenly tied on who "will get things done." (See Appendix)
When it comes to the issues, Obama has commanding advantages on "handling
the health care issue" and "creating jobs and improving the economy." McCain leads
Obama by a dominant margin on "dealing with the war in Iraq." The two candidates are
rated competitively on the questions of who will "keep America prosperous" and who
"can reduce gas and energy prices," though independents appear to favor McCain on both
counts. Prosperity has historically been one of the strongest predictors of the vote. At the
same time, while it will be tempting for Obama to concentrate the campaign only on
domestic economic issues, that would be a major misreading of the data. Obama cannot
allow McCain to continue to hold his advantages on Iraq, and according to our past
Battleground polls, matters of national security more broadly just ask President Kerry.
It will be well worth tracking the candidates' images over the following weeks, as
McCain may start to pay a price for the nasty turn his campaign has taken, particularly
since it flies in the face of the promise he made to run an honorable race. Among voters
overall, roughly four-in-ten say they are more likely to vote for each candidate based on
what they have heard (Obama: 42% more / 46% less; McCain: 43% more / 46% less).
But by a wide margin voters also think that McCain has waged the more negative
campaign (50% McCain / 21% Obama). Among independent voters, McCain is seen
as the more negative campaigner by 24 points (42% to 18%). The difference is even
wider among those who are undecided on the Presidential ballot; McCain is viewed as the
more negative campaigner by 34 points (41% to 7%). However, if we needed any more
evidence that negative campaigning works, independent voters are 2 points more likely to
vote for McCain based on what they heard of him (41% more / 39% less) compared to 8
points less likely to vote for Obama (35% / 43%).
Battleground 2008 Lake Research Partners
August 2008 Page #11
THE RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE: ANOTHER DEAD HEAT
Despite what otherwise promises to be a banner year for the Democrats, the
presidential ballot remains, as it was in May, a statistical dead heat. Under the most
conservative estimate of turnout, McCain leads Obama by 1 point, 47% to 46%, with
just 7% undecided (May: 49% Obama / 46% McCain). Obama continues to lead
McCain in terms of strong support, 37% to 36%, but this advantage is well within the
margin of error.
Obama v. McCain Presidential Ballot
Obama 37% 46%
McCain 36% 47%
Undecided 7%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
This represents a traditional turnout model. Obama's ace in the hole, however, is
his ability to change the electorate. With even a modest increase in the youth vote,
Obama moves to a 2-point lead over McCain.
The gender, age, race, and marriage gaps continue to be the clear fault lines
in this race. Obama leads decisively among women (+13), particularly college educated
(+19) and unmarried women (+27). Men go for McCain by 18 points, and the Republican
nominee performs especially well among white men (+35), college educated men (+21),
and married men (+32). Obama is the candidate for voters under 65, especially women
under 45 (+26), while McCain takes voters over 65 by 15 points, most notably men over
45 (+21).
The enthusiasm gap benefits both candidates, depending on how you look at
it. In terms of Party consolidation the standard measure of enthusiasm both
candidates convert the same number of their Party faithful (87% for McCain / 86% for
Obama). Other measures point in different directions. On the one hand, McCain converts
91% of voters who are supporting Republicans on the generic Congressional ballot,
compared to 83% of the same for Obama. McCain also does a much better job of
converting the support of his former GOP rivals, Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney (90%
support for each), while Obama still labors to win the favor of Clinton supporters (74%).
Among those supporters, 19% are for McCain and 7% are undecided yet that may
change after the convention. On the other hand, Democrats are much more satisfied
with the field of candidates than are Republicans (70% to 44% satisfied,
respectively), suggesting some lingering disaffection with McCain's nomination.
Ironically, Republicans also suffer from a "deficit of faith:" only 57% of Republicans
think McCain will prevail in November, compared to 76% of Democrats who think
Obama will win. At this point, we simply do not know who will show up, and who will
stay home, on November 4th.
Battleground 2008 Lake Research Partners
August 2008 Page #12
It is much more difficult for McCain to solidify his partisan support among
Republicans while simultaneously appealing to the swing voters. On measure after
measure of the economy, the war, and the direction of the country, Republican voters are
the outliers and Democrats and independents resemble each other much more.
Regionally, Obama and McCain continue to split the key battlegrounds.
Obama leads in the Northeast (+22) and West (+8), while McCain takes the Midwest
(+3), South (+19), South Central (+6), Central Plains (+19), and Mountain States (+6).
The only region to flip for McCain since May is the Central Plains, which has the second
smallest sample size of the regional breaks in the poll. Obama also leads in Kerry states
(+11), contested states (+2), states with two Democratic senators (+3), and in urban areas
(+12). In contrast, McCain assumes a lead in Bush states (+14), states with two GOP
senators (+3), states with a mixed Senate delegation (+9), and voters in rural areas (+17).
Rural areas have since flipped McCain's way, and voters in suburban areas are split (+1
McCain).
The undecided vote stands at 7 percent. Demographically, the undecided vote
appears to favor McCain, if only slightly. The profile of the undecided vote leans toward
voters over the age of 45 (84%), blue-collar voters (66%), independents (48%), married
voters (66%), regular church attendees (52%), non-fundamentalist/born-again voters
(57%), whites (77%), and suburban voters (51%). Additionally, fewer women (51%)
comprise the bloc of undecideds (compared to 57% on the congressional ballot).
However, undecided voters are much easier for Obama they are solidly in a change-
oriented mood. Fully 86% think the country is headed off on the wrong track, a majority
(56%) say the war in Iraq is not worth fighting and that the economy is poor (63%), the
economy and jobs are their top concerns (21%), and they are far more favorable toward
Obama (50% fav / 30% unfav) than McCain (42% / 33%). Traditionally, undecided
voters who are this dissatisfied break against the Party in power.
Perhaps the most substantial change since May is in the contours of support
among swing voters. Obama has seen his support erode considerably among
independents in this span, among whom he led McCain by 14 points but now finds
himself trailing by 10 points (45% McCain / 35% Obama / 20% undecided). At the same
time, however, Obama has cut McCain's substantial 36-point lead among undecided
voters on the generic Congressional ballot to a mere 2 points (36% McCain / 34% Obama
/ 30% undecided). Obama also continues to maintain decisive advantages among
Hispanics (+33), women (+13), and every religious cohort with the exception of weekly
church attendees (-30). Obama is also noticeably competitive among blue-collar white
women under 55 (-4) and blue-collar white men under 55 (-15).
While Obama has not fully consolidated the "change" vote, he is still holding
significant advantages on key metrics, including among voters who cite jobs and the
economy (+18) and the war in Iraq (+42) as the most pressing issues facing the country,
those who say the country is pretty seriously off on the wrong track (+24), and those who
say the war in Iraq is no longer worth fighting (+52).
Battleground 2008 Lake Research Partners
August 2008 Page #13
In conclusion, John McCain is making the presidential race a real contest.
The race will be close, and the trends over the past three months favor McCain
somewhat. The central challenge for Obama is to start defining the choice in this race on
his terms and putting McCain on defense. This starts with the convention and involves
connecting with voters viscerally on the economy, and outlining what is at stake with a
McCain presidency. It also means eroding McCain's formidable advantage on matters of
national security. His myriad vulnerabilities on this front from his confused
impetuousness in engaging nations (e.g. Russia and Iraq) to his support for Bush's
policies on existing threats to America (e.g. al Qaeda in Afghanistan and Pakistan) have
yet to receive a spotlight.
APPENDIX: OBAMA AND MCCAIN TRAITS
ALL VOTERS Obama -
McCain Obama
McCain
Health care 35% 54% 19
Represents MC Values 37% 52% 15
A uniter 36% 50% 13
Independent voice 37% 50% 14
Fights for people like me 39% 48% 9
Jobs and economy 39% 48% 9
Will get things done 42% 44% 2
Keep America prosperous 43% 43% 0
Gas/Energy prices 40% 37% -3
Shares your values 46% 43% -3
Says what he believes 44% 40% -4
War in Iraq 54% 41% -13
Strong leader 52% 37% -15
INDEPENDENTS Obama -
McCain Obama
McCain
Health care 27% 52% 25
Represents MC Values 33% 49% 16
Fights for people like me 33% 44% 11
Jobs and economy 33% 44% 11
Independent voice 35% 43% 8
A uniter 34% 42% 8
Will get things done 38% 36% -2
Keep America prosperous 41% 33% -8
Gas/Energy prices 39% 31% -8
Shares your values 44% 32% -12
Says what he believes 45% 32% -13
Strong leader 52% 28% -24
War in Iraq 61% 33% -28
Battleground 2008 Lake Research Partners
August 2008 Page #14