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                                   The Changing Geo-Politics of the North
                                 Dr. Lassi Heininen, University of Lapland, Finland
                           Chairman of the Northern Research Forum's Steering Committee

The circumpolar North has been described on a spectrum ranging, from a colonial external point of view, from a
periphery to an internal image of a homeland of peoples with their identities. In classical geopolitics the North was
seen as a reserve of natural resources and military space for patrolling and testing. The industrialized, militarized
and divided circumpolar North of the Cold War, however, started to thaw in late of 1980s as a result of increased
interrelations between peoples and civil societies, as well as international cooperation and region-building by
states. This more human approach of geopolitics meant, on the one hand, increased stability and decreased
military tension, and, on the other, a wide and deepening, mostly multilateral, international cooperation with both
intergovernmental and civic organizations and forums, such as the Conference of Parliamentarians of the Arctic
Region, the Arctic Council, the University of the Arctic and the Northern Research Forum. As a result of these
developments, the circumpolar North has become a stable and peaceful area.

All this has meant a significant change in northern geopolitics, which is clearly indicated by the following main
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themes, or trends, of circumpolar geopolitics and international relations in the early 21 century (stated by the
Arctic Human Development Report 2004): first, the increasing circumpolar cooperation by indigenous peoples'
organizations and sub-national governments; second, region-building with states as major actors; and third, a new
kind of relationship between the circumpolar North and the outside world, demonstrating that the North has
relevance in world politics. Each of the above, per se, indicates and reflects a significant change, and putting them
all together the picture is more a complicated and multi-functional process than used to be the case in the colonial
days.
However, neither international relations nor geopolitics remain unaltered, and consequently, the geo-strategic
importance of the region is growing, with significant geopolitical, socio-economic and environmental change
occurring in the North with regard to certain factors, such as strategic energy resources, energy security and
climate change.


The North in world politics - growing global interest turns toward the North
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Indeed, the North of the 21 century is not isolated, but closely integrated into the current world of globalization and
part of the international system. For example, we could easily relate two of the above-mentioned themes of
circumpolar geopolitics to the context of globalization due to the fact that cooperation between indigenous peoples'
organizations can be interpreted to be global and the relationship between the North and the rest of the world is
global. Furthermore, individuals, societies and governments are impacted by similar global problems and
challenges, and the growing demands placed upon them by the rest of the globe - all of which transcends the
traditional distinction between a core and a periphery.

As a stable, advanced and innovative region, the circumpolar North has seen positive developments within the
Northern Hemisphere as well as in world politics: Within the region, a number of innovative political and legal
arrangements have been developed, while a certain devolution of power has also taken place. The diversity of
northern nature and northern cultures is remarkable. The Arctic is used as a parameter of climate change, and
correspondingly, the circumpolar North has become a global "workshop" for (multidisciplinary) research on climate
developments which has made the North academically interesting. Finally, there is a growing worldwide economic
and political interest in the circumpolar North.


Growing interests of the unified states
Apart from the circumpolar North being a focus of growing global interest, the eight arctic states also demonstrate a
growing, national interest in the region and its resources. For this there are certain geographical, geopolitical, legal
and historical reasons. Whereas for centuries the arctic states maintained a colonial policy toward their northern
peripheries, nowadays they have concentrated their national interests on the North, and some of them have a
special Northern agenda and policy. Consequently, in northern regions there exists a recognition of the politico-
cultural legacy of state colonialism as well as a firm residue of `national interest' by a state.

At present, however, this is not the whole picture, since there are also international governmental organizations
and major powers from outside the region which take an interest in the North. For example, the new Northern
Dimension is interpreted to mean a common policy of the European Union (EU), the Russian Federation,

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Iceland and Norway in Northern Europe. In addition, northern issues are finally being given a higher priority on
the EU's agenda and matters relating to the north have been an important concern of the United Nations (UN)
for years; for example, the UN has special duties in the region through the UN International Law of the Sea.
Major powers from outside the region, such as the UK, France, Germany, China, Japan and South Korea are
taking a growing interest in many aspects of the North, such as in scientific research, a field which allows the
waving of a "flag", particularly in the IPY 2007-2008.

All this raises a number of questions, e.g. whether the governments of the arctic states are ready for a
thorough discussion on relevant issues, such as mass-scale utilization of basically untapped natural resource
endowments of the region, existing disputes and energy security in the context of institutionalized international
cooperation like the Arctic Council and the United Nations. Or will there be more traditional responses and
solutions, such as increased emphasis on national defence in Northern regions?


Main indicators of a geopolitical change
All this indicates that in the circumpolar North significant and rapid environmental, geo-economic and geopolitical
change is occurring. As a result of this, northern regions and seas have become a target area for the growing
economic, political and military interests of central governments of the arctic states as well as of major powers
outside the region and trans-national companies. A major attraction in this regard are on one hand, the huge
(mostly potential) deposits of oil and natural gas in the region and the potential contribution of northern sea routes
for global shipping; besides, activities aimed at ensuring energy security are an important element in national
foreign policies.

With a view to the above, broad scenarios for the future have been established, trying to foresee what will
happen in the North. It may be more relevant and useful, however, to identify the precise factors and dynamics
which are indicative of changes in northern geopolitics. Consequently, I have listed the following geopolitical
factors/dynamics to be regarded among the main indicators of a multi-functional change in, and growing global
interest toward, the North in the early 21st century: National sovereignty which is endangered by climate
change; military presence for the defence of sovereignty; utilization of natural resources, emphasizing strategic
energy resources; (global) energy security; transportation and logistics indicating a revolution in global shipping
and trade; technology; global (environmental and security) problems such as climate change; flows of
globalization through the increased transportation of goods; established international cooperation in response
to a growing need; education and science in combination with traditional knowledge due to new challenges;
and climate change per se bringing uncertainty into the societies, politics and governance of the region.

These issues will be much discussed in the sessions of the Fifth Open Assembly of the Northern Research Forum
in September 2008 in Anchorage, Alaska. Discussions in the plenary sessions under the themes of "The New
Geography of a Warming North", "The Accessible Arctic in the Global Economy", "The Future of Northern
Cooperation" and "Leadership in Conditions of Uncertainty", as well in roundtable and project sessions, are
expected, on the one hand, to concentrate on key factors and dynamics indicating changes in the North and
northern geopolitics. On the other hand, the debate is expected to highlight particular the matters relating to the
role of research and the social relevance of science, as well as the interplay between politics and science.


Conclusions
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At the beginning of the 21 century, the strategic importance of the North is growing and becoming high on the
agenda in geopolitics and economics, both in the Arctic states and major powers outside the region.
Furthermore, due to a growing need for, and even competition over, energy resources, there has been a steep
rise in competition and claims on northern sea areas and shelves. As a result of these developments, there is a
growing and obvious need for fundamental discussion and negotiations on these issues and challenges. It has
become an urgent question on which platforms these discussions will be conducted, either in the context of
some ad-hoc coalitions, such as the five littoral states of the Arctic Ocean, or in the context of the
institutionalized landscape, such as the Arctic Council and conferences of Parliamentarians of the Arctic?

Further, due to a growing and obvious need for fundamental discussion and open dialogue, the interplay
between science and politics might help. One potential stage for open discussion and dialogue on relevant
northern and global issues, as well as the implementation of this interplay, is the Fifth Open Assembly of the
Northern Research Forum. Based on our discussions and analysis, some starting points of the Open Assembly
might focus on the following conclusions and/or hypotheses: The circumpolar North is a stable and peaceful
area with institutional, international cooperation, and the region has relevance in world politics. There is an
increase of the geo-strategic importance of the region due to, on the one hand, an emphasis on geo-
economics and the importance of global problems such as climate change, and on the other, growing interest
among the arctic states and major powers outside the region in the huge energy resources and the potential
share of more accessible arctic regions in the global economy.


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Finally, and following from the above, significant geopolitical, socio-economic and environmental changes are
occurring in the North with relevant consequences, such as conditions of uncertainty, bigger risks to the
environment and human security, threats to local autonomy and sovereignty. These developments have given
rise to traditional responses by individual governments, reducing the impact of multilateral cooperation, when
actually there is a need for broader and deeper international cooperation both within the region and on a global
level.




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